Source/LongHash
Source/LongHash
The end of 2020 has made the year an amazing one in the history of Bitcoin. Here, we might as well review some predictions of crypto industry insiders on the price of BTC at the end of 2020.
A year ago, when we looked back at our Bitcoin price predictions for early 2020, most of them were quite off the mark. This year, when we look back at people's predictions for the "end of 2020," it turns out a little better.
In the table below, we evaluate the gap between the predictions of 17 insiders in the blockchain industry and the actual price of Bitcoin. According to Yahoo Finance, on December 31, 2020, the real price of Bitcoin was $28,841. All forecasts in the table below were made at least 12 months ago and were published publicly. For the case where a range is given instead of a specific price, we uniformly take the end closer to the actual price as its predicted value. For those narratives that are proposed to be "above" or "below" a certain number, we will uniformly take that number as its predicted price.
(There are many other people who have made predictions on the price of Bitcoin, but we mainly selected those who specifically made predictions for the price at the end of 2020, as well as those who gave a specific price or a relatively reasonable, small price range.)
Among the Bitcoin price predictions for the end of 2020, the most famous is undoubtedly John McAfee's $1 million prediction. He has been known to boast repeatedly that he would eat his own genitals if he was wrong. But he backed down in early 2020, claiming it was nothing more than a grandstanding stunt. Well, after all, his "prediction" is simply out of reach, and it can't be worse.
With the exception of McAfee, most forecasts are actually pretty close. This is because we should at least consider how difficult it is to predict the price of an asset that has always been criticized for its wild volatility a year or more in advance.
Perhaps most noteworthy are the forecasts of Alexander Zaidelson and Danny Scott. Both of their prices were within 5% of the actual price of Bitcoin.
Why are the predictions for 2020 more accurate?
Perhaps people have gotten a better handle on Bitcoin’s price swings, or maybe it’s just because we’ve singled out those more accurate predictions in this year’s review. Of course, the actual reason may also be simpler: the price of Bitcoin has gone up.
With a few notable exceptions (such as last year's Calvin Ayre's $0 price prediction), the people asked to predict Bitcoin prices are generally insiders of the cryptocurrency industry. In most cases, they are people who want to see the price of Bitcoin go up.
Psychological research shows that humans tend to be overly optimistic when making predictions. According to a 2011 study, it's fairly common: "Excessive optimism appears to be an integral part of human nature, observed across genders, races, nationalities and ages."
When it comes to forecasting, then, it’s not surprising that Bitcoin insiders who want to see prices rise tend to be on the bullish side. In 2019, most crypto insiders are predicting price increases. The same goes for 2020.
So, what about the price prediction for 2021? It appears that many in the industry are once again setting their goals high. According to reports, many parties, including Citibank, predict that by the end of 2021, the price of Bitcoin may exceed 300,000.
LongHash, Use data to understand the blockchain.
