This is the fifth article in the "Kay's DeFi Notes" series. This series is dedicated to providing some common sense about DeFi in the most easy-to-understand language, including not limited to conventional concepts such as impermanent loss/AMM, or about the principles of new projects , Design analysis, and strive to make melon-eating people who don't understand DeFi at all understandable. I hope I can write at least 30 articles.
The author is not a professional financial person. This is a non-serious series, focusing on the sorting out of personal thoughts and self-expression. People who read it can just read it casually, and those who write it can write whatever they want.
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0. Mr. Wan said that the recent market is 2077 ─ ─ just go home and dial 2077, but why is Bitcoin not used in 2077 :)
1. The Bitcoin in the exchange did not flow out from the DeFi wave, but 312, and the approximate balance decreased from 2.8 million to 2.2 million
1.1 The outflow is not as much as imagined, and it may not have much impact on CoinBase, Binance, and Huobi for the time being. It just makes them realize that, Aha, DeFi is a new trend worthy of attention. But the other side of the coin is that it may have a huge impact on some third- and fourth-tier small exchanges
2. When we say that NFT is the next hot spot,what are we talking about──These four categories are completely different
3. FTX’s transaction volume has increased by 10 times year-on-year, and at the same time, SBF is Biden’s second largest supporter after Michael Bloomberg—whether you like SBF or not
4. DCG, the parent company of Grayscale, surpassed Coinbase this year to become the most valuable (?) encryption-related company in the United States, but it is unlikely to go public
4.1 In the middle of last year, Grayscale had an AUM of 250,000 bitcoins. This year, it has attracted so much attention, which has something to do with the PR of Coinbase (which also belongs to DCG).
4.2 In the past four years, GBTC has never had a negative premium
4.3 If Bitcoin rises to $100,000 next year, DCG will most likely become an unlisted company with an EBITDA of $1 billion
4.4 The first listed exchange may be Coinbase. I remember that cz mentioned in a podcast that Binance will not be the first listed exchange. On the one hand, it will be convenient if someone else does it for the first time. homework”, on the other hand Binance has a Russian business
4.5 cz Hope Binance ends up being a DEX
5. A metaphor: Grayscale is the Berkshire Hathaway of the crypto world
6. Andre Cronje. I want to say a lot, but don't know where to start. Yet we, I mean, he, can't quite quit crypto.
7. How to outperform BTC/ETH? The author of the study said:
- Information asymmetry, inside information (the rich get richer)
- Have technical advantages and compete on the chain (“scientists”)
- For those assets that you think are really underestimated, but many smart people are really wrong, have faith~~admiration~~read, and then take a big position and a heavy position
Summary: Difficult.
8. The author(s) position table can be clearly observednew market cycleThe phenomenon of YFI standard in China, LONG Andre, LONG DeFi, LONG ETH.
9. Will Bitcoin become "non-homogeneous"? In other words, is there a difference between a "virgin coin" just dug out by a miner and a coin that has been circulated in N hands? The author believes that self-hosting and private transactions will win in the end, but did not give a reason, probably based on the belief of Crypto OG lol
10. Another metaphor: Bitcoin mining may become the debt balance of the global power grid
11. Be bullish on ZEC, bullish on privacy wealth containers (with less good reason
11.1 Currently there are more privacy solutions, such as NuCypher ($NU), Oasis ($ROSE)
12. Substitutes hurt monetary premiums; BTC has few substitutes, ETH may have many.
13. ETH is a "three-point" asset: commodity (necessary for transferring gas), means of production (Eth2 Staking), and possibly money (reserve asset)
14. According to the latest vision of Vitalik and friends, ETH2 may be ETH1.5 + Rollup, the core is Rollup, not sharding
Uncle Meow: In the beginning, this was still a small market (eth in 15 years). People didn’t know what to buy or sell, but the market gradually formed in this way, and even small shops were born one after another. Some people made money Market business (Compound, Aave), some people do exchange business (Uniswap). But there was a goal set at the beginning of the establishment (no one knew whether it was right or wrong at the time), that is, to build a cathedral (ETH 2.0), people wait, and often gather and discuss.
Time passed quickly, several years passed, and the days of delivery gradually increased, and the veiled cathedral could not be clearly seen by everyone. So people keep asking the people who set up the stalls in the first place, when will we be able to enter this cathedral.
The constant persecution brought about the advancement of things, as well as the disclosure of disputes and disadvantages, so the advocates of the former church suggested gathering in the square to answer any questions from everyone, but they did not explain how the decision-making made changes (Call #52), people also pretend (or are incapable of really) not caring, because they fear that their doubts will bring criticism from others.
People in the square talked to themselves, and in a question-and-answer session, they sought the possibility of their glory after entering the church. Most people knew that they didn’t really need the church or were uncertain. After all, compared to the small market a few years ago, We have a faster infrastructure (Rollup), and we have a guard army (Miner) that guarantees market order, but they hope that they can have some power to change the shape of this church.
So the advocates said, if you want to enter this church, the infrastructure must serve it (Rollup is the center), if you want to enter this church, then the governance that everyone can participate in must be its premise (PoS), if you If you want to enter this church, the market in the past must prosper because of you (community confidence). If you want to enter this church, you must cast a vote and give up the current guard (Miner).
No one really expects this church, people only expect their own power to be exercised, even if this itself is not based on justice, even if the fair participation of assets brings about centralization, some people have given vigilance. But no one really expects this church, people only expect their power to be exercised.
15. The average transaction fee of ETH this year is about 0.2%, while that of BTC is 0.4%
16. One of the core competitive advantages of ETH is that people are willing to believe in V God and follow V God, because the ETH he built has made many people rich
16.1 The launch method of Bitcoin and Satoshi Nakamoto cannot be copied, but in terms of attracting "early community believers", ETH's token sale, YFI's "worthless" fair token distribution, and Uniswap's airdrop may be the most effective. Approaching an irreproachable token distribution method like Bitcoin
17. Uniswap vs CEX is like BTC vs global fiat currencies
Bitcoin is a bad currency in relation to the U.S. dollar, but a very good currency compared to the Argentine Peso or Venezuelan Bolivar or Sudanese Pound. As bitcoin strengthens and other currencies inflate, it rises up the currency leaderboard. Likewise, Uniswap is a “bad exchange” compared to Binance and Coinbase (though even that is now somewhat arguable), but a very good exchange for long-tail assets and when compared to centralized exchanges outside of the top 50 by trading volumes. Soon, that will be the top 10 by volumes.
18. DeFi codes are all open source, so what is the moat of the DeFi protocol?
Branding, integration, usability, goodwill, external partnerships, high security, and, well, a smart vault strategy.
Branding, integrations, usability, goodwill, partnerships, good security are all important. But a sound treasury strategy is critical.
How to understand?LONG Andre, LONG YFI :)
19. The YFI merger and acquisition in November is not the end, and there will be more mergers and acquisitions in the DeFi world in 2021
20. In the past year, the supply of USDT has increased by 4 times, USDC by 6 times, PAX / BUSD / HUSD (BUSD/HUSD is the OEM vest of PAX) by 5 times, and DAI by 15 times
21. The daily on-chain transfer volume of USDT has surpassed that of BTC around August
22. Maker behind DAI may be the most difficult fork DeFi protocol (same as Multicoin’s point of view)
22.1 In the lending business itself, Maker lagged behind AAVE/Compound in this round, but thanks to the large amount of DAI used in farming, the issuance of DAI has greatly increased
23. In view of the relatively lack of arbitrage mechanism for DAI, Terra has added an arbitrage scheme that can be exchanged back to the pledge in practice
24. Two major management principles of crypto fund: don’t go short, don’t go long on the currency standard
25. DeFi fixed-income agreements began to appear,LONG $MPH
26. Grayscale’s arbitrage expectation APY is even higher than the rate of return of many DeFi risk-free mines (of course, the threshold for participation is also high). In the past year, the positive premium of GBTC is about 10-20%, while that of ETHE is 50-80%
27. "Synthetic stocks", as cool as they are, haven't turned the crypto world upside down, and the author thinks the concept will be falsified in 2021
28. Multicoin’s HT and BNB valuation reports are worth re-reading
29. Few wallets or other Web3 applications have released liquidity mining incentives, and there may be some next year
30. Index track: SET, PieDAO, Melon
31. Cumulative registrations of CEX may have exceeded 100 million
32. Data tools: Can platform-level products that aggregate CMC / CoinGecko + Dune Analytics + The Graph + Coin Metrics + Nansen appear?
33. Messari: To be the Bloomberg of the Crypto world (Bloomberg machine)
34. Among the decentralized infrastructure networks (computing platform Golem, video transcoding network Livepeer, V\*N platform Orchid, long-wave IoT network Helium, address service network FOAM), the author believes that Helium is the most likely to explode
35. $HNS?
If you want convexity, the future is a decentralized DNS + RSS + Tokens.
36. The author sees more NFT directions:
- Digital art trading platform and digital collections
- MEME-like lottery application (foreigners don’t speak human language lol, let me translate it, it should refer toNFT blind box application, NFT POP MART
37. The author's bearish NFT direction:
- NFT collections as collateral──NFT+DeFi
- NFT liquidity mining
38. Virtual worlds like Axie Infinity and Decentraland will continue to grow
39. Crypto has no borders, and the community has borders. This kind of controversy and anxiety, from the author's perspective, only Western Bias & Chinese Fear is left. The opposite of Western is Chinese, not Eastern. Interesting
40. Crypto and "Denationalization of Currency" give Global Nomad more choices, Estonia 🇪🇪 is an interesting country
