Editor's Note: This article comes fromBlockVC（ID：blockvcfund）, reprinted by Odaily with authorization.
Editor's Note: This article comes from
, reprinted by Odaily with authorization.After nearly a month of volatility and climbing, Bitcoin has approached the $14,000 mark, setting a new high in 2020.BlockVC strategy research in the September strategy research report "
"It is clearly stated that with the return of active trading funds in the DeFi market and the continuous buying of institutional funds driven by macro trading logic, superimposed on the endogenous power of Bitcoin halving, Bitcoin will complete shock adjustments around mid-October and carry out an upward trend. Attack the $14,000 offensive.
Bitcoin has completed the first-line offensive of $14,000 as scheduled. During this period, PayPal and DBS Bank released service plans for cryptocurrency payment or transactions, which became a major catalyst for the market, and also confirmed the prediction of institutions’ continued firm entry. We believe that the current The uptrend of Bitcoin has not yet come to an end, and the short-term upward momentum is still very sufficient. At the same time, it has officially started the New Year's long bullish market spanning 2020-2021.
Sell in May and go away
Remember to come back in November
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The four-quarter effect, the market is mild before Christmas
In addition to the mild market conditions in the overall market, the balance and return of structural differentiation also appeared in the fourth quarter. The most obvious feature is that the weighted varieties or investment styles that have lagged behind or performed poorly in the previous period will reap better performance in the fourth quarter. BlockVC’s strategic research believes that after the huge earthquake in the first quarter, the sideways depression in the second quarter, and the DeFi mania in the third quarter, from the perspective of investment logic, the funds in the fourth quarter will return to the game of Bitcoin and mainstream currencies with lower growth rates in the previous period , and superimposed on the recent catalysis of a series of institutional behavior information such as Grayscale, PayPal, and DBS Bank, Bitcoin and mainstream currencies will be the absolute main line of the market in the fourth quarter, and the current strong trend is expected to continue.
However, we have also observed that the structural differentiation of the market that has lasted since June has not yet shown a significant return. After experiencing the huge split between DeFi currencies and mainstream currencies in the third quarter, the recent market has shown a trend of differentiation that is unique to Bitcoin.
Data source: MVIS Indices
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Data source: TradingView
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Market sentiment has not yet FOMO, the market will continue
Judging from the market sentiment indicators we observed, regardless of the market turnover rate, price ratio, dispersion rate among currencies, and the number of long positions in the portfolio, the overall profit-making effect of the market is sluggish, and investment sentiment is not high. Investors are generally very "numb" to the rise of Bitcoin, and are pessimistic and hesitant about the sustainability of the follow-up market. The current pessimistic market mentality means that the positions of investors in the market are not high, and the long positions are not crowded. On the contrary, there are still a large amount of funds waiting for the decline to build positions. Therefore, it is still difficult to see a sharp decline. The upward momentum is still abundant, and the market will continue to hesitate continue to develop.
We also believe that as Bitcoin continues to rise, the investment sentiment on the market is expected to continue to pick up, and mainstream currencies will still have compensatory gains and market rotation. Before the market FOMO sentiment breaks out, the market is expected to continue to rise steadily.
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Bitcoin goes to the mainstream, and the New Year's bull market kicks off
2020 is a crucial year for Bitcoin to see key User Adoption improvements:The new crown epidemic and the ensuing monetary easing and economic recession have greatly stimulated the demand for users to hold encrypted assets, especially Bitcoin; the short-term slump caused by the shortage of market liquidity in mid-March reshaped the position structure on the market, 5 The monthly Bitcoin halving is implemented, and the structural marginal reduction of supply relative to the emerging investment demand has become the internal core driving force for the continuous rise of Bitcoin prices. The trend of continuous entry of off-market funds, especially institutional investors, is also clear for a long time— —Bitcoin is moving towards the mainstream, and the long-term bull market in the new year is already on the way.From our January 2020 research report "Facing the halving market, the 6500 at the end of this year is 3200 last year" and the April research report "
We should realize that since May 2020, we are in a halving bull market cycle of about 18 months, and the long bull market that will last at least until the fourth quarter of 2021 has begun prelude. And this time, throwing away the cloak of speculation, digital currency may fly into the homes of ordinary people.
Data source: Coindesk
