Produced | Odaily (ID: o-daily)
Produced | Odaily (ID: o-daily)
IPFS will finally usher in the highlight moment of "landing".
Since the huge financing in 2017, it has been constantly hyped. The IPFS ecology has moved from an irrational capital influx to a rational layout construction. The breakers and leaders of the decentralized storage ecology stand on the same starting line and are about to go online. The main network "Head Mine".
Standing at the beginning of the rise of the IPFS ecosystem, on July 22, 2020, Odaily, together with 36kr, Mac Storage, and the IPFS Chinese community, jointly held the "Star Rising - IPFS Technology and Distributed Storage Ecological Cloud Summit".
More than 20 senior practitioners gathered here. Starting from the roles of capital, exchanges, miners, and technical service providers, they discussed the application prospects of IPFS technology and met the opportunities and challenges of Filecoin.
Through the perspective of these practitioners who are deeply involved in the Filecoin industry, we have a more accurate and in-depth understanding of this mysterious project that has been labeled "niche", "capital", and "cutting leeks" in the past few years.
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Filecoin Status: Overheated market and traceable behind-the-scenes drivers
Beginning in 2020, almost all media, capital, and exchanges are clamoring to invest in Filecoin, so what is the relationship between Filecoin and IPFS, and how high is the market ceiling?
Xu Kun, chief strategy officer of OKEx, explained in the keynote speech of "IPFS" that IPFS and Filecoin are two sides of the same body. The goal of IPFS is to supplement or even replace the Hypertext Media Transfer Protocol (HTTP) used in the past 20 years, hoping to build faster , safer and freer Internet era. Filecoin is a blockchain project based on IPFS technology combined with token incentive layer design.
In terms of market size, Xu Kun predicts that by 2022, the global cloud storage market will reach more than 100 billion US dollars.
The first step for exchanges to participate in FIL is mostly to launch FIL futures trading first.
As one of the "Big Three", OKEx took the lead in launching the Filecoin (FIL) USDT perpetual contract on the day of the conference. Xu Kun said that after the Filecoin mainnet is launched in the future, he will look for exchanges that open FIL spot transactions and have better circulation to gradually replace the FIL/USDT index components.
In the first round table of the summit "Betting on the Distributed Storage Track: Investment Opportunities and Layout Direction", Li Xiaocheng, CEO of the exchange ZT global, also took the lead in launching FIL futures trading. In his view, since a large amount of funds and flows are currently pouring into the Filecoin market, this may be a good news for exchanges, and it is also a window period.
Li Xiaocheng estimated that the more reasonable price of FIL futures is in the range of 10-20U, but he also observed that the price of some platforms is around 40-50U, which does not rule out some hype. From a multi-dimensional evaluation, he believes that the FIL futures prices on some platforms are inflated.
For this armament war, the IPFS investment opportunities understood by different contestants are also different. Different from those who are optimistic about the market, capitals have poured cold water on the overheated Filecoin market.
Huang Lingbo, partner of Fenbushi Capital, believes that Filecoin is more likely to go out of the circle, land, and combine with the traditional market, but the current Filecoin is overheated. Overheating is reflected in the interest attributes of Filecoin, which are not commensurate with its long-term value attributes. The market needs a cooling process.
Du Jun, the founding partner of Node Capital, expressed his opinion that the true value of Filecoin has not been verified by the market and users. After verification, there may not be any stories to tell, so there may be a lot of fluff after the Filecoin mainnet goes live.
Du Jun’s interpretation is that behind every wave of hot spots in the cryptocurrency market there are respective “promoters”, and the “Shenzhen gang” has played a major role in promoting Filecoin hot spots.
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Filecoin Investment Opportunities: In a $100 Billion Market, Storage Is the Biggest Value
Although there are many risks and overheated hype, this does not prevent a steady stream of funds from continuing to pour into this market.
As Huang Lingbo, a partner of Fenbushi Capital in the first roundtable, said, Filecoin mining tools have strong industrial attributes, which is very different from Bitcoin miners. Many Filecoin miners are just in demand for storage.
As a miner brand serving Filecoin miners, its founder Hou Feng estimated the Filecoin market at hundreds of billions of dollars when estimating the ecological value of the Filecoin market.
This sounds like an illusory and distant number, but it is actually inseparable from the pain point demand solved by Filecoin and IPFS vision for modern society - "storage".
In Hou Feng's view, the biggest value of Filecoin is "storage" itself. In the next few years, users' data storage will show an explosive upward trend. After the 4G network is really rolled out, takeaway, mobile payment, live broadcast, The emergence of short videos, e-commerce shopping, and even various cloud platforms has profoundly changed people's lives. A family documentary of a few minutes requires hundreds of MB of storage space, and countless chat records, newsletters, and videos on the Internet every day , videos and files require astronomical levels of storage capacity.
Regarding the ecological value of Filecoin, Jun Yao, the host of the chain node live broadcast room, Hou Feng, the founder and chairman of Mac storage, Kristen, the CMO of ChainX, Andy He, the CMO of computing power Internet, Li Peicai, the co-founder of Shanghai Diyi, and Shang, the partner of Mars blockchain. Silin made an in-depth analysis in the roundtable discussion entitled "Opportunities and Challenges of Participating in Filecoin: Ecological Prospects and Application Value".
Shang Silin, president of Mars Cloud Mine, believes that Filecoin includes three levels: the basic ecological value of Filecoin mining and the secondary market; the ecological value of Filecoin commercial applications; the native application ecology including Filecoin wallets, clients, and developer tools value.
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Filecoin Mining Unspoken Rules: Controlling Risks and Calculating Costs
If you want to "plunge into" the blue ocean of Filecoin, mining FIL head mines is a recognized and feasible "swimming style".
But as mentioned above, after obtaining high financing in 2017, the FIL mining machine market has flooded into batches of speculators who lack strength and longevity. If the mainnet is not online for a day, naked swimmers will not surface for a day.
The still opaque industry environment and the propaganda of manufacturers' machine parameters with various moisture are a difficulty before new players and new capital enter the field.
In another round table, Jia Xudong, co-founder of KeyPool, Lai Chuhang, chairman of Space-Time Cloud Technology, Li Bai, technical director of Pomegranate Mining Pool, and Andy, co-founder of 1475, are four hard-core technology providers of Filecoin mining track, and Odaily senior Reporter Huang Xuejiao started a discussion on the theme of "Which Filecoin Mining is Strong: Technical Strength and Mining Efficiency".
In this roundtable dialogue, four powerful players in the FIL mining circle not only generously shared the unit price and sales strategy of their products, but also analyzed the general cost-effective indicators in the current market and the historical problems of Filecoin.
The packaging speed per ten thousand yuan is recognized as a relatively reliable evaluation index at present.
Li Bai, the currency circle of Pomegranate Pool, believes that although this indicator cannot fully reflect the quality of the whole set of solutions, it can basically reflect the strength of the mining machine. There are still two aspects of the indicator that are lacking: one is the cost of subsequent equipment expansion, and the other is the packaging speed In relation to the acquisition of tokens, miners should consider the influence of hardware solutions, software optimization and other aspects in actual mining.
KeyPool co-founder Jia Xudong also reminded miners and investors that when using this indicator for estimation, they must ask the miner clearly what is the price benchmark for calculating this indicator. million packaging speed indicators. He also shared the effective computing power in the market, which is estimated to be around 2000 PB, and the calculation of the payback period, the reference currency price for all investors is between 50-70 RMB.
Regarding the thunderstorms of unreliable miners that may be caused by the launch of the mainnet, all the "old guns" in the mining circle think it is a reasonable phenomenon, and they have reminded miners to pay attention to possible risks, such as technical risks, policy risks, monopoly risks, and economic models. Risk of change, as well as consensus and network stability.
Xu Kun also gave some risk reminders:
The Filecoin project itself has more complex rules at the technical level, consensus level, and incentive level. Especially before the main network is officially launched, there are still uncertainties about the details of the pledge system and the algorithm at the execution level.
The uncertainty that may be encountered in the development of the Filecoin project, and whether it can be supported by the continuous growth of real storage needs remains to be seen.
Mining machines and cloud computing power products are mixed, and there is information asymmetry in the market, which requires careful identification.
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The future of Filecoin: need to reduce monopoly, business prospects are promising
The last roundtable focused on the business future of distributed storage. Zhang Chao, partner of Biniuniu, Lou Danfeng, founder and chairman of Diancun Technology, Calvin Cao, co-founder of Interstellar, Yang Xiao, COO of Panda Miner, Mirror Mirror Lao Feng, the joint sponsor of the network, and Yan Zitong, the founder and chairman of Xi'an Lingdong Computer System Co., Ltd., interpreted the economic model and cycle of Filecoin.
As Lai Chuhang, chairman of Space-Time Cloud Technology, said, the proportion of the current Filecoin customer base has changed, and investors are moving from irrational to rational.
As the Filecoin market heats up, capital and investors in the mining and currency circles have gradually become more rational, and users' risk awareness is increasing.
Lou Danfeng, founder and chairman of Diancun Technology, said when talking about the high threshold for small-scale mining in Filecoin mining, he said that the right to mint coins cannot be controlled by large miners. Unlocking in batches, miners’ pledge and lock-up can all reduce monopoly.
He further interpreted that in the early stage, the efficiency of currency production was low. This was due to security considerations, and he did not want to destroy data due to small node downtime. But this has virtually raised the threshold for mining. After Filecoin matures, more individual nodes are bound to participate in order to truly decentralize and maintain a stable network.
"When big miners have the right to mint coins, the project will be in the hands of a few people to a certain extent, which is not good for the ecology. Therefore, the current official batch unlocking, miner pledge and lock-up mechanisms can slow down the speed of monopoly In the long run, it is necessary to really find a flow scenario, so that these coins can flow to where they are needed, so as not to be controlled by capital." Lou Danfeng said.
But it is undeniable that the business prospects of Filecoin have been recognized by the industry. Yang Xiao, COO of Panda Miner, interpreted the four directions for the implementation of Filecoin ecological applications:
One is about information security and storage of private data. For example, the data of home cameras and medical data have higher requirements for privacy, and centralized storage is not necessarily the best solution:
The second is the permanent storage of information, such as data related to astronomy and scientific research;
The third is to follow some data types with distributed scenarios, such as alliance chain and Internet of Things data, which is naturally a distributed storage method;
Fourth, content rights confirmation.
The main network is about to launch, and from the sharing of 20 big names, we can feel that the Filecoin market does contain considerable dividends, but if you blindly focus on the currency price and return cycle, regardless of the long-term and stable development of the industry, you may not be able to collapse It will come before getting rich.
Odaily will also continue to track and report on the IPFS ecology and its implementation.
