Editor's Note: This article comes fromBlockVC（ID：blockvcfund）, reprinted by Odaily with authorization.
Editor's Note: This article comes from
, reprinted by Odaily with authorization.
Since the halving of Bitcoin in early May, Bitcoin has maintained low volatility and sideways trading for nearly 7 weeks, and it has been extremely lonely in the global capital market that has been raging for a while.
Not only the United States, but also the stock markets of Europe, America and Asia have recovered from the decline caused by the global financial tsunami since March. On the one hand, there are repeated epidemics, sluggish consumer demand, high unemployment, and the continuous closure of businesses and shops. On the other hand, there are surging Liquidity and the hustle and bustle of stock prices make it impossible to feel the coldness of the real economy. It seems that the epidemic will not be mentioned again, or even never happened. Comparing the deserted digital currency market with the US and other stock markets, you will be surprised and confused, which market is the so-called mature capital market?
In such a situation where the fundamentals and asset prices deviate from and tear apart from common sense, all "smart people" are waiting for the irrational return of the market and the second dip. However, this level is close to two In March, the "second dip" has been late, and the market has begun to wonder whether the so-called "second dip" will be completely absent even when the epidemic has clearly spread twice—the same is true for the Bitcoin market. The benefits of halving have already landed, and the deep correction that everyone expected has not yet appeared, which is already surprising. However, Bitcoin’s high sideways trading and shrinking volume itself represent the market funds’ attitude towards the current price after a huge increase. The trend is very confused, and the endogenous structure of the market is on thin ice. Perhaps it is not as strong as the superficial price trend seems.
secondary title
Market differentiation and local tasteless market
Since the halving of Bitcoin, mainstream currencies such as Bitcoin and Ethereum have been fluctuating within a narrow range, while the prices of currencies with small and medium market capitalization have shown some performance, and the market differentiation is very obvious. As can be seen from the MVIS index in the figure below, the MVIS Small-Cap Index (yellow line) of small and medium-sized market capitalization currencies has the most obvious increase after the halving, and from the BlockVC strategy research market differentiation b index, it can be seen that the current market prices between currencies The differentiation is very obvious, and the degree of differentiation has even exceeded the two stages of the most exciting market sentiment in June and October 2019.
In fact, partial market differentiation is a common manifestation of major asset markets at this stage. At present, the leading premium market of "the strong are always strong" and the garbage market of "dancing demons" have appeared in major securities markets around the world, forming a very typical current situation. The characteristics of investors' psychological activities. However, in the digital currency market, the leader (Bitcoin) itself is walking on thin ice, and the so-called monsters (small and medium-sized market capitalization currencies) change hands in a sluggish mood. Obviously, the mood is not yet excited, which also shows that the internal structure of the current market is relatively weak. big vulnerability.
In the real economy, unconventional monetary policy and fiscal stimulus continue to boost optimism for recovery, but the digital currency market has not benefited from it. If we talk about the similar properties of Bitcoin and gold, gold has also recently been suppressed by the rise in interest rates due to economic recovery, and the support of investors’ buying caused by concerns about currency oversupply. Gold is hovering at its historically high price position. , failed to get out of a clear trend direction for the time being. Sensitive investors have long discovered the high correlation between Bitcoin and the U.S. stock market in the short-term trend in the past two months, but Bitcoin is more inclined to follow the fall rather than rise, and is also at a loss in the dilemma of the U.S. stock market . The ample liquidity and fanatical sentiment in the traditional securities market have not flowed into the digital currency market, perhaps because it is currently impossible to judge that there will be a strong logic and funds that will strongly push Bitcoin to continue to rise in the short term.
secondary title
Will there be a second dip?
A well-known investment manager recently said that the U.S. stock market is like a ball blown up by a fountain. In fact, this is also true for the price of Bitcoin. The ball is blown up by the water of the fountain. Once the water flow becomes weak or there is no water, the ball will fall. However, the ball itself is expanding and getting heavier. If more water cannot be given, or there is a gust of wind, the ball will fall The same will fall.
The reason why judging the second dip has recently become the most entangled issue for everyone is that, based on the current market trend, it can be said that there is a certain degree of resilience, but the pressure is indeed heavy, and the weight of positive and negative news seems to be similar. , so the huge and clear-cut differences that should have appeared in the market at this time in the past have now become confusion of consistency. A series of economic or social consequences triggered by a public health crisis are beyond anyone's knowledge. Past experience cannot guide current behavior and everyone is exposed to the vulnerability of ignorance. At this time, the pursuit of Short-term predictability is a very dangerous behavior.
You can never predict the future, but you can always plan ahead.
