Learn about the progress of major DeFi projects in one article
真本聪RealSatoshi
2020-06-07 07:39
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This article is a summary of the sporadic thinking on the public chain and DeFi in the past month. At the same time, four sets of codes have been updated for your reference and enjoyment.

Compound announces the specific token distribution details. Simply put, if you deposit the tokens in Compound for lending, you will get a corresponding proportion of COMP tokens.

Followed by the stable currency exchange protocol Curve will also issue coins.

Following this momentum, Uniswap may also issue coins. Liquidity mining is a relatively fair token distribution method. If you work and contribute, you will be rewarded with tokens. Similar to Edgeware and Nucypher's Lockdrop. This way the tokens you get have an opportunity cost.

DeFi projects are born with the gene of issuing coins through Liquidity Mining.

DeFi has a group of pioneers in a small circle in China. They have been paying attention to various DeFi projects in the Ethereum ecosystem since 2018. For utilitarian opportunists like me, because DeFi projects rarely have tokens to hype, it can be said to be completely ignored in DeFi. But now I pick up DeFi learning again, but because its tokens have a market, and more and more DeFi projects are starting to issue tokens.

I didn't expect that DeFi would issue coins in such a way as liquidity mining.

For public investors, one more DeFi project issues tokens, one more choice, and one more opportunity. This is a good thing. You just need to prepare the money and fight the bayonet.

Some noteworthy projects that are about to issue coins through liquidity mining include: Compound, Curve, Balancer, DForce, Uniswap (it is speculated that Uniswap will issue coins), etc.

The big bull market in Ethereum DeFi has just begun. If this assumption holds true. Then the valuation of the entire DeFi sector will increase a lot. At least 2-3 times. As many as 5-10 times. Currencies with market capitalization levels of US$100 million, US$10 million, and US$1 million can be deployed.

On the other hand, a bull market in DeFi does not mean a bull market in ETH. ETH is basically the income of the broader market. If you are optimistic about ETH, you can still configure ETH, but appropriately reduce the expectation of obtaining excess returns through ETH.

Continue to pay attention to the investment opportunities on the three DEXs of Uniswap, Kyber and Bancor.

The past view was that DEX has always served as a supplement to CEX and played a long-tail role. According to Block's report, DEX's share of CEX's trading volume has increased from 0.2% in 2019 to 0.9% now, a full four-fold increase. The rise of the AMM-like automatic market maker DEX represented by Uniswap, and the two-layer technology such as Rollup to accelerate the performance of DEX, these signs indicate that the growth dividend of DEX has just begun. Whether it is DEX or CEX, there must be a period of investment bonus period in the early stage of development. If DEX is just getting started, the opportunities in DEX are countless.

Mr. Jia has changed the direction of Qibuhai and Supernova to DeFi. And I gradually changed from a senior public chain researcher to a beginner DeFi enthusiast, and increased the number of DeFi holdings. I think that's the trend. Or rather, these are some of the recent shifts in those around us.

With the rise of the Ethereum DeFi ecosystem, Ethereum’s status as the leader of the public chain continues to be consolidated, and the possibility of new public chains and Ethereum killers breaking out of the siege has been greatly reduced. This is why I simply deleted the Ethereum killer code (Polkadot Cosmos Nervos Solana Near Coda) first.

Since the project is too early and has great uncertainty, investors in the secondary market should not intervene recklessly, but should spend time researching other existing secondary market projects. Let it hang for a while, wait until the secondary market is almost digested, and then it is not too late to intervene.

Although it is now starting to sing bad public chains and sing more about DeFi. But the market is always changing, and there may be a day when the public chain will become popular again. Therefore, it is wrong to impose the death penalty on the public chain. It’s just that the code of the public chain is put in the cold palace for the time being.

The new public chain did not make people see hope. On the contrary, DeFi has aroused everyone's long-lost enthusiasm. When you have been working hard in one direction but have not achieved much, besides telling yourself not to give up and continue to persevere, is there another possibility that this direction has been chosen wrong.

Over the past two years, I have spent a lot of time and energy researching Ethereum Killer. The opportunity of the DeFi series of currencies is an opportunity, which made me realize that most of the investment opportunities are still within the Ethereum ecosystem.

Every round of the bull market has a big track. If you find the right track, and then choose projects in the track, it will be difficult to make money in this way. The big track of the last round of bull market is undoubtedly a public chain. Precisely because too many miracles have been produced on the public chain track, this fire has continued into the bear market for the next two years. Many people are pinning their hopes on the Ethereum killer, betting heavily, hoping to hit the next Ethereum. But two years have passed, and the reality has taught us that none of the Ethereum killers can really fight.

What about this round of bull market? At present, this big track is likely to be DeFi.

About ETH. I regard ETH as the income of the market. ETH has the stability of BTC as a market currency, and it also has higher odds than BTC. Holding ETH is a means of gaining alpha while protecting beta. If you are a frequent visitor to casinos such as Uniswap and IDEX, then ETH must be an essential gambling capital. Therefore, holding ETH is not only to obtain market beta income, but also a circulation medium for gambling.

About XTZ. Despite the growing infrastructure around it, there are currently no real applications running on Tezos. I also don't think DeFi and stablecoins will be established on Tezos. STO is a point that can tell a story. But whether STO can be implemented is unknown, it is more of a symbol and symbol of Tezos. Coinbase's own son. Holding a billion dollars. These two points are the biggest advantages compared to other new public chains/Ethereum killers.

Tezos as a whole gives me a feeling of a new generation of Ripple/Litecoin. It is a Shitcoin that foreigners like to play very much. It is useless, but everyone likes to fry it, and the dealer likes to pull it.

The No. 007 protocol will be upgraded soon, and the zk anonymous function will be added, and the short-term price can be expected.

Short-term breakthrough of 5 billion US dollars, medium-term breakthrough of 10 billion US dollars, long-term breakthrough of 20 billion US dollars is close to Ethereum. These are my three goals for Tezos. Hope Tezos can do its best.

About LINK. Like Tezos, it is also a Shitcoin that foreigners like to play very much. Calling the oracle requires LINK tokens. It is a more practical economic model that consumes tokens. Needless to say, LINK Marine is terrible. LINK is still the monopoly of the oracle track. The rise of BAND has not changed this status quo, it just makes the track more interesting.

About MKR. One of the previous doubts was: for coin speculators, MKR is equivalent to a fake DeFi faucet that has been emptied. From a practical point of view, it is difficult to use, and there is little intersection with MKR/DAI when frying coins. From the perspective of currency speculation, the price of MKR has been stable with little fluctuation. Generally speaking, a "very tasteless" project.

However, after Coinbase announced the listing of MKR in the past few days, it immediately rose by 50%. According to the previous Coinbase effect, the possibility of MKR continuing to rise after listing on the Cb exchange is not small. As the originator and leading project of DeFi, it is time for MKR to match its price and value. It is currently valued at $450 million. Personally, I think it is no problem to keep pace with Chainlink at a valuation of US$1 billion. In the long run, I wouldn't be surprised if MKR enters the top ten by market capitalization.

About KNC. Short-term speculation is mainly due to the expectation of starting Staking in June, and other DeFi currencies have had a good round of gains in the past month, only KNC has not moved for a long time. The long-term holding is mainly because Kyber is the head DEX of the AMM category, and the share of DEX in CEX transactions will continue to increase in the future.

About NMR. What it does is to ensure the credibility and quality of information by mortgaging assets. At present, there are nearly 150,000 NMR and 5,500 DAI locked in the Erasure protocol, and the amount of collateral is constantly growing. Numerai's practice has proved that mortgage assets are an effective means of filtering information. This theme is relatively niche and unique, and because it has token collateral, it belongs to DeFi in a broad sense. It is worth mentioning that USV, Placeholder and Dragonfly recently announced a new round of $3 million capital injection into NMR. This makes me think that as a project with the same valuation as KNC at 100 million US dollars, it still has some room to play.

About REP/GNO/MLN. REP (market cap: $150 million) has been tepid as a prediction market subject. The lock-up volume is currently only 400,000 US dollars, and the lock-up volume has dropped by half in the past year. Although the prediction market can also be regarded as DeFi in a broad sense, the recent hot DeFi projects are all trading, mortgage and lending. It may take an opportunity to predict the popularity of market themes. So REP will not consider it for now. MLN (asset management theme, market value of 4 million US dollars, lock-up of 600,000 US dollars), GNO (prediction market theme, market value of 27 million US dollars) and REP are the same.

About ZRX. The total transaction volume using 0x Realyer can reach an average of 3-4 million USD per day. At the same time, ZRX started Staking. A new DeFi product matcha will be released at the end of the month. If Kyber and Uniswap are representative projects of AMM DEX, then ZRX is a representative project of on-chain matching off-chain order DEX. Estimated at $200 million. In the long run, it is worth planning. According to the analysis, in terms of cost performance, if you choose between KNC and 0x, you can choose KNC. Because of the same P/E, the valuation of 0x is twice that of KNC.

About REN. The development of cross-chain BTC on ETH is in full swing, and thousands of WBTC have been forged. REN also has its own RENBTC. Stablecoin swap protocol Curve has added RENBTC. This is a detail and signal worth noting. I think it is better to observe whether the forging quantity of RENBTC will increase in the future. At present, nearly 50 RENBTCs have been forged. If the number of forgings increases to 200-300, I think REN can be deployed decisively. In the DeFi segment of cross-chain BTC, there are not many tokens. Keep counts as one, Ren counts as one. As a competitor of WBTC and TBTC, REN is worth deploying.

About TRB. A small and beautiful oracle project. Consensys and Binance Labs participated in the investment. Surprisingly, I saw TRB in Binance Labs' monthly portfolio report recently. Other portfolios such as BAND/KAVA/CELER have already been listed on Binance, so there is every reason to expect that TRB will also be listed on Binance in the future. In a Delphi digital research report on oracles, TRB and LINK/BAND/UMA are listed side by side, which shows that TRB has also attracted the attention of foreign mainstream circles. The oracle machine boutique project with a market value of 8 million US dollars is worth doing a layout.

About RSR. Algorithmic stablecoin, competing product Basecoin is stillborn due to regulatory issues, so the only algorithmic stablecoin on the market is RSR. The popularity of Twitter abroad has always been high. But it is outside the mainstream DeFi circle. A detail worth mentioning is the introduction of Huobi’s official Twitter. I wrote a few codes, and RSR is also among them, and BTC/ETH/XRP/LTC/HT are juxtaposed with it. The market value of 20 million US dollars is relatively safe and can be used as a layout.

About KAVA. CDP will be launched this month. Since CDP is the first to support the mortgage of BNB, BNB holders are very friendly to the KAVA project. Binance also supports KAVA very much, and it is likely to open the stablecoin USDX trading pair in the future. KAVA has the taste of taking over ATOM and becoming the big brother project in the Cosmos ecosystem (if the CDP is successfully implemented).

I am curious about how much BNB collateral will be after opening CDP, and whether it will continue to rise. And whether there will be other projects mortgaged into the Kava CDP system in the future. Cosmos' ecological projects are all candidates. If this set of logic makes sense, then the scale of assets locked through kava will be no less than that of Maker. A $20 million valuation was pretty small back then.

About NEST. An oracle project that has not been noticed by the mainstream DeFi circle. Some people criticized that its economic model is too CX, or that the anonymous development team cannot be trusted. It is also a project that obtains tokens through liquidity mining. Personally, I think the design of the token economy is still very subtle. The overall valuation is more than 30 million US dollars. Haven't been to the top three yet. It's worth playing.

About SNX and LEND. The prices of these two projects have increased greatly in the past year, and the increase in prices is positively correlated with the amount of token mortgages in the system. Now it has become two lever sub-projects in the DeFi ecosystem, and has also been recognized by the mainstream DeFi circle. The current valuation is around $100 million. SNX is currently working as a layer2 DEX, and LEND has recently integrated Uniswap. Both projects are constantly improving and iterating their products. The price has been found in the short term, but it is still worth planning in the long run.

About UMA. Broad market for synthetic tokens, no price feed contracts. Powerful combinable banks can combine rich financial derivative products. It is an important part of the Ethereum DeFi ecosystem. The current product is relatively hard-core and not suitable for ordinary users. In addition, the token economy also needs to be improved. The circulating market value is 3 million US dollars, and the overall valuation is 100 million US dollars. This is what many people worry about. The depth on Uniswap is very good, 5000ETH+900000UMA. Suitable for large capital intervention.

Dragonfly/Placeholer/Coinfund/Coinbase Venture four investment. It is also an alternative project for Coinbase Custody. I believe that UMA will not be far from launching Cinbase.

About JRT. The things to do are more complicated, based on UMA and SNX. The founder has a professional Trader background. People in the mainstream DeFi circle are slowly paying attention to this project. For example, Camila of Defiant is paying attention. There is currently a Demo version of the product. Later, JRT's Staking will be enabled. Some people criticized the project party for three years and still haven't made a product. People in the mainstream DeFi circle think it is a wild project. Because of this, the market value is only more than 1 million US dollars. The project party will update the weekly report every week, giving people a more practical feeling. According to the weekly report of the project party, early SNX investors are also very interested in the project. Overall, it is a serious DeFi project with high odds.

Placeholder is a low-key but connotative Fund. China has focused on Multicoin, but Placeholder can be said to be on an equal footing with Multicoin. Since 2020, some of Placeholder's investment portfolios have gradually begun to emerge, such as NMR/ANT/ANJ/UMA/Balancer, etc. Without exaggeration, I think the next 2-3 years will be the year of the Placeholder. Of course, this institution as a whole is very low-key, and it has always been excellent. It’s just that I’ve grown to appreciate him more and more since this year, whether it’s content output or investment projects.

I will not say which of the two funds, Placeholder and Multicoin, is better or worse. In theory, they belong to the same level, one LP is USV, and the other LP is A16Z. But as a speculator, you must pay attention to Placeholder in 2020.

Having said all that, I'd like to end this post with four sets of code. These four sets of codes are:

Three disasters: ETH XTZ LINK

Volley Six: LTO CHR COTI CHZ OXT CELO

Red Sheath Nine: JRT NEST UMA COMP CURVE BAL DF KEEP UNI

Thirteen Supernovas: MKR ZRX KNC NMR LEND SNX REN KAVA RSR RUNE TRB

真本聪RealSatoshi
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