1. This week's important market review and official interpretation
Market review
Market review
In terms of the new crown epidemic, real-time statistics released by Johns Hopkins University in the United States show that as of about 6:33 on June 5th, Beijing time, a total of 6,591,933 new cases of new coronary pneumonia have been confirmed worldwide, with 199,614 new cases added in a single day. 388,612 deaths. Among them, the United States has a total of 1,870,156 confirmed cases and a total of 108,120 deaths.
In terms of U.S. stocks in the external market, U.S. stocks closed mixed on Thursday. The Dow closed slightly higher, recording a rise for the fourth consecutive trading day, while the S&P 500 closed slightly lower after rising for four consecutive trading days. The three major U.S. indexes In terms of crude oil, the London Intercontinental Exchange August Brent crude oil futures price rose 20 cents, or 0.5%, to close at $39.99 a barrel. The contract has risen for the sixth consecutive trading day, and the U.S. WTI and London Brent crude oil both refreshed the highest closing prices since March 6 for the third consecutive trading day; in the gold market, gold futures for August delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange Prices rose $22.60, or 1.3%, to settle at $1,727.40 an ounce.
In terms of the currency market, in the past week, the spot price of Bitcoin has continued the trend of converging and consolidating the triangle. During this period, at 7 o’clock on Tuesday morning, it moved up to $800 and broke through the $10,000 mark again. The highest price touched $10367.6, and it retreated to $600 at night There is a "painting door" market. As of 9:30 am on Friday, the spot price of Bitcoin is reported at around $9800; Ethereum has continued to fluctuate and rise this week after breaking through the key resistance level of the triangle pattern last week. As of 10 am on Friday: 00, the spot price of ETH was reported at $244; the platform currencies all showed sideways trading, with small fluctuations, and the rise of other mainstream currencies was still not strong.
Official Interpretation of OKEx Investment Research
In terms of currency contracts, according to OKEx trading big data, as of 10:30 on June 5, the ratio of long and short positions in BTC contracts was 1.19. The ratios are all positive, and the total amount of contract positions has increased to more than 6 million. The market forces have exerted force, and the forces still have strong strength; the market is active in active trading, and the short-term market may change again; BTC contract elites In terms of positions, short accounts accounted for 57% and long positions accounted for 19.75%. There are still differences between the long and short positions of elite accounts, and we need to continue to pay attention to the changes in the positions of large accounts.
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2. Interpretation of important data of OKEx trading big data this week
The screenshot is from OKEx trading big data. It can be seen from the figure that the ratio of the number of BTC long-short positions has continued to rise from 0.84 on May 25 to a recent peak of 1.42 on June 3 (Wednesday), which is the same as the contract price during the same period. The overall rise has also formed a same-direction relationship; since June 3, as of 11:00 am today, the number of BTC long and short positions has dropped slightly to 1.19, indicating that the current bulls are still dominant, and the market sentiment is still bullish. However, judging from the decline in the ratio of the number of long-short positions, the narrowing of the upside has also increased the probability of a fall in the contract price.
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Figure 1: BTC long-short position ratio (05/12-06/05)-OKEx
The screenshot comes from OKEx trading big data. After the BTC quarterly contract basis last week showed a pattern of first falling and then rising, in the past week, the BTC quarterly contract basis has always remained positive, that is, the contract price of the quarter is higher than the spot price. On June 2 (this Tuesday), the minimum value of the weekly basis difference was 26.27USD, and today (June 5), the basis value reached the maximum value of 71.29USD within this week. If the basis value remains positive and continues to expand, there is a high probability that the BTC contract price will rise further, and the contract price and contract basis will show a positive correlation.
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Figure 2: BTC contract basis for the current quarter (05/22-05/29)-OKEx
The screenshot is from the OKEx transaction big data. As can be seen from the figure below, the total amount of BTC contract positions has dropped from the highest point of 12.3 million on February 15 to the recent lowest value of 3.6 million on March 14, and then reached nearly 3 months Monthly continued the slight upward trend. As of 11:20 on Friday, the total amount of BTC contract positions remained above 6 million contracts, and the trading volume during the week only reached nearly 47 million contracts on Wednesday. It can be found that the total amount of contract positions has remained stable in recent months, indicating that the long and short positions in the market have steadily increased. If this small-step upward trend continues, the contract currency price will continue to rise with a high probability.
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Figure 3: Total BTC contract positions and trading volume (02/07-06/05)-OKEx
The screenshot is from the USDT over-the-counter premium trend chart on the OKEx platform, which is taken from the data from February 7 to June 5. It can be clearly seen from the figure that the USDT over-the-counter premium rate rose from March 8 to March 14 , began a continuous decline for nearly 3 months. During the period last week on May 27, the transaction rose to a recent high of 3.09% positive premium rate, and then continued to fall again this week. As of 10:30 am on Friday, The OTC premium of USDT is -1.11% (negative premium), indicating that with the recent rise in contract prices, the market has replaced USDT with BTC and other mainstream digital currencies, reducing the short-term demand for USDT in the market, causing the Premium rates continue to decline.
Figure 4: USDT OTC Premium (02/07-06/05) - OKEx
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3. Interpretation of big V and institutions
1. Interpretation of Big V
The screenshot is from the K-line chart of the OKEx BTC contract for the current quarter. It can be seen from the chart that although the market has experienced a change in the price rise and fall on Tuesday this week, it is still operating in the box as a whole, and the lower track of the box is supported by $8600 , the upper rail of the box at $10,000 continues to be under pressure, and the contract price is still running upwards in the current round of upward trend, and there is still room for nearly $1,000 to rise from the previous high. In view of the fact that the domestic contract price has failed to break through 10,000 points, it shows that the upper pressure is prominent, and it is more difficult for multiple parties to attack upwards.
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Figure 5: OKEx BTC/USD quarterly contract daily candlestick chart-AICoin
In terms of operation strategy, at the daily line level, if the contract price can once again increase in volume and effectively break through the 10,000-point curse pressure on the upper track of the box, and the K-line shape does not receive the upward influence, it indicates that the market may continue the upward trend and start the market , investors can take advantage of the trend to go long, take profit at $10600 in the short term, and set the stop loss below the upper rail of the box; if the contract price falls under pressure in the near future and falls below the upward trend line, the probability of further falling below the lower rail support of the box will increase Large, investors should promptly stop the loss of long orders, and consider the opportunity of empty orders when they resell.
(2) Weibo Big V: Bitcoin Li Yiqi
Bitcoin spot is now at 9780, which is not far from the high pressure range near 10500. From a spatial point of view, since August last year to now, every time Bitcoin has reached around 10,500, it has not successfully broken through and started a big rise. From a time perspective, from 3.12 to now, Bitcoin has risen for almost 3 months. So I think that if Bitcoin does not stand firm above 10,500, either do not participate in the market, or be as bearish as me;
In terms of operation, my suggestion is that Bitcoin pulls up and stands firm at 10,500, and it is more likely to start the main wave later. Stop loss at the current price of 9,780 and go long. If it falls below the daily moving average of 30 (price 9400) again, go short, and the stop loss can also be placed around 9780.
(3) Weibo Big V: Currency Huage
Brother Hua is very confident in grasping the general trend. Except for the wave of New Year's decline, which has become obsessed and has not changed in time, the grasp of the trend within three years is basically accurate. In the early stage of the bull market, it is necessary to use violent methods to clean the contract market and unstable chips, and then the market can start to skyrocket to 90,000 miles. We are in the stage of cycle transformation, and holding on is the last word. Dare to fall and dare to buy is the last word. Following the rhythm of Brother Hua, we are heading towards the bull market step by step.
Bitcoin did not fall further after experiencing a broken head, and it has always remained above the 30-day moving average, indicating that the main force is only to wash the market and harvest contracts. From the moving average, the moving average opens upwards and the long positions are arranged. The macd is about to cross, and the market is still long Situation, Brother Hua believes that there is a high probability that Bitcoin can reach 10,000 US dollars in the short term. If it stands firm this time, it may usher in an explosive market, and continue to buy and hold at a low price.
2. Institutional Interpretation
(1) BiNiuNiu
In the past 24 hours, BTC’s minimum callback was around $9,730, and its highest rebound was around $9,880. The trend is still healthy, showing a fluctuating upward trend.
On the whole, the market is strong and controlling, and the support and pressure sometimes seem very weak. The short-term market has entered a volatile market, with the upper pressure at 9900 and the lower support at 9700.
(2) AICoin
AICoin PRO version K-line main force data shows that in the past week, the main force did move near the trend line, building more than 50 million US dollars, and the price rushed to a maximum of 10,548.35 US dollars, but quickly completed the harvest by taking advantage of the sentiment of retail investors. The current price has returned to near the trend line. Yesterday there were signs of small-scale opening of positions by the main force, and more than 10 million US dollars of entrusted orders were traded, but at the same time, there were also many sell transactions at market prices. Currently, the TD four-hour cycle forms a green TD9, and the most traded price line on the volume-price distribution chart is $9,623.
