1. This week's important market review and official interpretation
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1. This week's important market review and official interpretation
Market review:
In the external market, the U.S. stock Dow Jones index opened higher on Monday, and then started a tug-of-war. As of press time, U.S. stocks closed down on Thursday. Rising, NEMEX crude oil futures reported $33.79/barrel, the highest hit $34.66/barrel; Brent crude oil futures reported $35.98/barrel, the highest hit $36.98/barrel; gold rose first and then fell this week, hitting a price level since 12 years on Monday A new high of 1765.26 points, a sharp retracement of $20 on Thursday, is currently closing at around 1728 points.
In terms of the currency market, this week’s market is just the opposite of last week’s rising trend. This week, it fluctuated up and down in the range of 9500-9900 on Monday and Tuesday. Since 11:00 p.m. on May 20, it has been in a downward trend. With the quarterly contract price below $9100, both bulls and shorts competed, OKB/USDT fell below $5, and ETH spot fell below the $200 round mark.
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Figure 1: OKEx BTC/USDT Spot Daily K-line Chart-Tradingview
Affected by the external market, the encryption market also experienced a simultaneous decline on Thursday night. Assets such as U.S. stocks, gold, and Bitcoin were all under pressure. The curse of falling for a long time has returned to the wide shock range of 8500-10000 points as a whole. In addition, it is currently during the two sessions of the country, the overall market will tend to be cautious, and it is expected that there is a possibility of further bottoming out. However, in the short term, in the context of increased uncertainty in the external market and still strong risk aversion, the price of the currency will fall. Space is limited.
2. Interpretation of important data of OKEx trading big data this week
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1. BTC long-short position ratio
In the past week, the ratio of BTC long-short positions also showed a trend of rising and falling. On the 18th, the highest value of long-short positions in BTC this week was 1.11, and today it recorded the lowest value of 0.92 this week. This week, the BTC currency price showed a negative trend as a whole, and the ratio of the number of long-short positions fell below 1 again, indicating that the current market has a decrease in long positions and a significant increase in short positions. .
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2. BTC contract basis
Last week, the BTC quarterly contract basis continued to increase, and the currency price showed an increase; this week, the BTC quarterly contract basis gradually narrowed, forming a relatively strong positive correlation with the continuous decline of the currency price as a whole, and the basis value is currently shrinking , but let’s maintain a positive basis, that is, the contract price is always greater than the spot price. As of press time, the basis value is 9.78USD. If the basis continues to fall, it may fall to a negative basis, and the accompanying currency price may fall further , the short-term risk of continued callback.
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3. Total BTC contract positions and trading volume
Compared with last week, the total amount of BTC contract positions this week is relatively stable, basically maintaining more than 5 million contracts per day, and the trading volume also maintains a level of more than 20 million contracts. OKEx Investment Research believes that the current relatively sluggish total contract positions and trading volume indicate that the current market has a strong willingness to be short-term, and long orders temporarily choose to wait and see. If the total contract positions continue to decline, it indicates that both long and short orders Decline, the possibility of the currency price continuing to fall is increasing.
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4. BTC leverage long-short ratio
As can be seen from the figure below, from last Friday to this Tuesday, the BTC leveraged long-short ratio showed a continuous upward trend, rising from 1.01 to 2.59, and then fell back slightly to the current 1.81, which is still above 1. In general, in the past week, the leveraged long-short ratio of BTC first rose and then fell. Compared with the hovering around 1 last week, it has moved up this week. probability.
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5. USDT OTC premium
Compared with last week, the USDT off-market premium on the OKEx platform this week has shown a trend of deep V rebound. The premium rate has continued to rise from a negative premium on the 18th to a positive premium of 0.25% today, indicating that with the current week The downward adjustment of the market, on the one hand, the profit taking in the early stage has led investors to exchange BTC for the stable currency USDT, which has increased the short-term demand for USDT and increased the off-market premium rate of USDT; on the other hand, the sidelines The successive entry of funds has also created a certain market demand for USDT and accelerated the upward trend of the premium rate.
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According to the comprehensive view of OKEx trading big data, OKEx Investment Research believes that as of press time, the ratio of long and short positions in BTC contracts is 0.92, and the market is still in a tug-of-war between long and short in terms of numbers; quarterly contract basis and perpetual contract Funding rates are all positive, and the strength of multiple parties should not be underestimated, but the value continues to shrink, showing that the power of multiple parties has shrunk compared to before; the total amount of contract positions continues to remain at 5 million on the platform, and the active trading activity is relatively high. There is a change; in terms of BTC contract elite positions, the long account ratio is 47%, and the long position ratio is 19.89%.
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1. Interpretation of Big V
3. Interpretation of big V and institutions
(1) OKEx Analyst: Leo Zhang
The screenshot is from the 4-hour K-line chart of the OKEx BTC contract for the current quarter. It can be seen from the figure that the contract price trend in the previous quarter broke away from the narrow range of center A and entered the current center B. This week as a whole, it continued to trade between $8500- The $10,000 range fluctuated in a wide range. This week, it hit the pressure level of the upper rail for the third time in the near future, and fell back under pressure when encountering resistance. The cumulative decline in the range was close to 60%.
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Figure 7: OKEx BTC quarterly contract 1-hour candlestick chart-AICoin
From the perspective of technical analysis, the red TD sequence 13 will appear on dips in the chart, and the green TD sequence 13 will appear on rallies, which also shows that the pressure and support of the upper and lower rails in the shock center are relatively strong. In view of the continuous decline of the current currency price, the currency price may fall further under the effect of inertial decline. The profits of investors who open short orders around $10000 may continue to increase. The short-term stop profit level is around $8500, and they are ready to consider opening short positions Single investors can continue to wait for the opportunity. If the quarterly contract price can fall back to $8500 and there are obvious signs of stabilization, you can take a small position to buy more single rebound opportunities. The premise is to set a stop loss at a suitable point near the lower rail of the center B. The short-term take-profit level is still around $10,000 on the upper track of hub B.
(2) Big V on Weibo: Dong Ge Finance and Economics
Recently, Bitcoin fell below the important threshold of 9200-9000 in a row. The major news pointed to the 50 bitcoins dug out by "Satoshi Nakamoto" in 2009. It was later confirmed that they were not Satoshi Nakamoto's, but the market was still reluctant. Directly fell below several major hurdles. In fact, the 50 bitcoins have nothing to do with who owns them. The important thing is that he moved them on the 20th after 11 years. This is an important signal.
We always like to look for news as a reason after a rise or fall. In my opinion, there is no reason, it is time to fall!
I put forward this point of view on May 3. At that time, I thought it would rise to around the 12th, because the 12th is halved. Many people think that it will rise after the halving, but the rise before the halving can make more people step on Short, the drop after halving will make more people panic! The investment market is nothing more than a psychological battlefield. Only by running where there are few people can you make money. On the 3rd, I clearly mentioned that it will fall to the period of the two sessions, and 9000 must be broken.
The past has passed, let's take a look at what the general trend of Bitcoin will look like in the future? As shown in the picture, the blue line below is the trend line at the daily level, and the important support is around 8800, which has been effectively supported yesterday. The next few days are the focus of our attention. If it falls below, we can be bearish. The target is 8300. If the market outlook is relatively weak and falls below the 8000 mark one after another, then we can basically see 6000, but I think the latter is unlikely! If the trend line is not broken, continue to be bullish!
We should not think about predicting the market correctly forever, but think about how to deal with the market, so that you will not appear so passive!
The above are personal opinions and do not constitute investment advice!
The decline in the daily level has probably just begun, and macd is also in a downward trend, and it is already underwater in 4 hours. The specific price, above 9300 and 9500, has resistance. The author continues to add short positions in batches.
2. Institutional Interpretation
(1) BiNiuNiu
2. Institutional Interpretation
Last night, Bitcoin bottomed out at 8800 and rebounded strongly, and once again received a lower shadow line, indicating that many troops have not yet died.
(2) AICoin
From the perspective of the market, the position of 8800 US dollars is a strong support, and the shock will continue in the near future. There is a demand for an oversold rebound in the short term. The lower support is 8960, 8800, and the upper pressure is around 9150, 9300. It will continue to rise.
(2) AICoin
The AICoin PRO version K-line main large order tracking shows: In the past week, it went down in shocks as scheduled. The turnover of the main large orders was 30.32 million US dollars, and the open interest still decreased significantly. It can be seen that some people are buying to close short positions during the market decline. At the current position, we have not seen the main scale of opening positions.
