Editor's Note: This article comes fromCaijingOnchain Finance (ID: CaijingOnchain), Author: Chen Yi, reproduced by Odaily with authorization.
Editor's Note: This article comes from
CaijingOnchain Finance (ID: CaijingOnchain)
CaijingOnchain Finance (ID: CaijingOnchain)
, Author: Chen Yi, reproduced by Odaily with authorization.
Caijing.com Chain Finance, May 11th, according to the data of the Bitcoin blockchain browser at 15:00 on May 11th, there are still 10 hours and 16 minutes before the third Bitcoin halving. The height is 629937, 63 blocks away from halving.
After this halving, the income per T of Bitcoin will drop from 0.00001561 BTC to 0.00000781 BTC, and the number of rewards per block will drop from 12.5 BTC to 6.25 BTC.
Based on the "halving effect", the industry has paid great attention to the third halving of Bitcoin. Public data shows that global interest in "Bitcoin halving" is continuing to heat up. According to Google data on May 10, the number of searches for the Bitcoin halving event has reached 100, which is the highest ever.
At the same time, institutional funds and large investors seem to be actively hoarding coins.
On April 30, Chris Wood, head of global equity strategy at Jefferies, suggested in a report that investors should buy Bitcoin before the halving.
In addition, there are data showing that GBTC, a Bitcoin trust fund under Grayscale, has purchased 68,395 BTCs since the beginning of 2020, of which 7,839 BTCs were purchased during the May Day holiday. On May 7, the encryption analysis platform Santiment also released a report stating that Bitcoin whales have been buying BTC at higher and higher prices in the past week.
And all of this is based on the "halving currency price increase".
Many people believe that the Bitcoin halving will be a catalyst for the bull market. Liu Changyong, director of the Blockchain Economic Research Center of Chongqing Technology and Business University, analyzed: "First of all, the halving of Bitcoin will lead to the halving of Bitcoin mining revenue, which will have an impact on the mining industry; The halving of the currency supply will have little impact in the short term, but it will become a strong support for prices in the medium and long term.”
But will the halving really be the catalyst for a new bull market? Does the halving inflation theory really exist?
At present, three major digital currencies have completed halving or production reduction. They are LTC (halved on August 5, 2019), BCH (halved on April 8, 2020) and BSV (halved on April 10, 2020).
According to the financial statistics on the chain, on the day of the halving of these three currencies, without exception, they ushered in a decline.
Among them, LTC had a brief surge before the official fork, rising all the way to $106.97, but as soon as the halving ended, the market price of LTC immediately fell, falling by more than 12% within 24 hours.
At 8:19 p.m. on April 8, BCH completed its first halving, the block reward was reduced from 12.5 BCH to 6.25 BCH, and the daily output was reduced from 1,800 BCH to 900 BCH. At present, the computing power of the entire BCH network is 3.69EH/s, which is roughly the same as the computing power level before halving. According to market data, BCH fell by more than 2% in a short period of time after the halving was completed. Since then, the downward trend of BCH continued until BSV was halved on April 10. On April 10, BCH fell by nearly 13% within a day.
At 8:48 am on April 10, after BSV was officially halved, the price of BSV continued to fall, with a 24-hour drop of more than 11%. In addition to the currency price, after the halving, BSV’s computing power, number of active addresses, and number of transactions all dropped significantly.
Since the halving, these three halving coins have still not "recovered lost ground".
According to OKEx data, the highest price of LTC on the day of halving was US$106.97. Since then, LTC has been falling all the way. Although it rebounded during the Spring Festival, it once fell to around US$23 in March 2020. At present, LTC is currently at US$41.78, which is the same as Compared with the highest price on the day of halving, it has dropped 60.94%.
The highest price on the day of BCH halving was $280.1, which became the highest price after the halving of BCH. Currently, BCH is trading at $232.17, down 17.11% from the highest price on the day of halving.
The highest price of BSV on the day of halving was $218.36, and BSV is now at $182.7, a decrease of 16.33%.
Xiao Lei, a cryptocurrency analyst, said in an interview with the "Daily Economic News" about the halving of LTC, "The halving is a technical design, and it is public information on the market, so the impact of the halving has already been reflected in the price. Given that there is currently no news to speculate in the market, the halving may stimulate some stock funds for short-term speculation, but it mainly depends on the intervention of external funds, otherwise the demand will not rise, and the halving of production will also have limited support for prices.”
Comparing the K-line charts of LTC, BCH and BSV, it can be seen that in the first half of the halving, there has been a certain degree of rise.
