Editor's Note: This article comes fromBlockVC（ID：blockvcfund）, reprinted by Odaily with authorization.

, reprinted by Odaily with authorization.

After experiencing a single-day plunge of nearly 40% on March 12, Bitcoin has risen from the bottom by more than 100%, and the rebound trend is strong. Although it has experienced the disturbance of "negative oil prices" during this period, the price of Bitcoin has not changed. Compared with other major asset classes, it has a higher excess return. The mid-term V-shaped reversal trend of Bitcoin has been established, and it is expected to fluctuate and climb to the $10,000 line before the halving time comes. With the superimposed influence of the halving effect and the demand of the macro environment, Bitcoin will start a new year's bullish market after the halving by virtue of its negative correlation with real interest rates similar to gold.

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It has been almost two months since the global tsunami triggered by the new crown epidemic. The Dow Jones index and the Nasdaq index have rebounded by more than 30% from the bottom. European and Hong Kong stocks have rebounded rapidly. Gold has hit a new high since March. Various interest rates and liquidity Indicators began to fall, indicating that the most intense short-term liquidity risk has been released. The liquidity shock caused by the continuous plunge in the global capital market at the end of February and the global dollar shortage once caused the market to fall into ischemic shock. For more than a month, the market has begun to slow down the correlation, volatility and risk appetite of large categories of assets from the storm. Restoration, benefiting from the simultaneous repair of these three indicators, the breather window of the staged news vacuum, and the liquidity of marginal recovery, in conjunction with the trend of gold hitting new highs, Bitcoin has achieved a V-shaped reversal of value restoration.

The current stage of restoration undoubtedly stems from the unprecedented large-scale fiscal stimulus and supporting currency injections, huge influx of funds and bottomless policies implemented by the United States in response to the economic shock caused by the epidemic and the dollar shortage in the financial market. The determination sent a very firm signal, and in a pattern that history has repeated for decades, the market has long been conditioned not to fight the Fed.

Data source: FED, IMF

This time, the scale of fiscal stimulus adopted by the U.S. and global governments has exceeded the sum of the stimulus scales of all previous short-cycle crises since 2008. In terms of monetary policy stimulus, the Fed’s balance sheet expanded by $17,700 in just one month. In addition to interest rate cuts, repurchases, and various financing facilities, they also used "bottomless" credit tools that directly enter the market to purchase assets, which will pay for the US fiscal stimulus measures of 2.5 trillion yuan, and even play the role of the global central bank, providing financial support for some The central banks of other countries provide US dollar financing, and the United States has launched "helicopter money", which is flooding the whole world with US dollars. At the same time, it has completely blocked the occurrence of a new round of liquidity crisis, and it is still the most gentle respite window for the global market.

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Data source: IMF Research

The explosive surge in unemployment data in the United States has confirmed that the United States is in a severe economic recession, and this time the increase in unemployment data has exceeded four times that of the 2008 financial crisis. If the impact of the new crown epidemic continues, the U.S. economy is bound to slide to into the depths of depression and crush aggregate demand in the global economy.

The world economy is relying on the inertia of government debt and monetary easing to wade through the pothole in front of us. If you can’t get over this pothole, you may fall into it, but even if you step over this pothole, you may fall into the next cliff——caused by easing The accumulation of debts, the increase of financial market fragility and the imbalance of the internal structure of the economy, combined with the impact of "low growth", "low inflation (oil price)" and "low interest rates", the United States is leading the global economy to follow Europe. Into the river of "Japaneseization".

Therefore, the policy path of the central banks of the United States and other countries is also very clear in the next step. In order to reduce the impact of the epidemic on the real economy and ensure the scale and strength of fiscal stimulus, the fiscal deficit will be further significantly increased, and interest rates will continue to be lowered. Print money to provide cheap debt financing.

The macro environment of economic downturn and loose liquidity is the most suitable environment for the price of gold and bitcoin to rise sharply; as the U.S. treasury bonds enter negative interest rates, the dollar has a depreciation trend, and investors are highly uncertain about the investment in dollar assets In an environment of negative interest rates, holding cash will also bear the cost of holding. Investors will have a strong investment impulse to seek "super-sovereign currency" as a store of value. Gold and Bitcoin are the best choices, and there is room for improvement. Unlimited.

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From 1945 to the present, the interest rate changes in the United States have gone through a complete and symmetrical cycle of more than 70 years. After the interest rate has been raised sharply, it has returned to the vicinity of the zero axis 75 years later, and the inflation rate has also returned to the zero axis. At the low level around 1950, we can already clearly perceive the end of the old cycle and the eve of the new cycle we are in. Although we are now worried about the Great Depression, the greater risk in the future lies in the rise of forward interest rates and possible inflation (stagflation).

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Data source: Yahoo Finance

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12-day countdown to halving, short covering forms V-shaped reversal

We are only about 12 days away from the third Bitcoin "halving" that everyone is waiting with bated breath, and many people have been waiting for this day for more than two years.

After experiencing a two-day cumulative drop of more than 50% on March 12 and 13, Bitcoin recorded a trading volume that exceeded the two large top and bottom spaces at the end of June 2019 and the end of November 2018. On the 12th and 13th, the users on the market cut their flesh and left the market during the two consecutive days of sharp decline. The trading volume released during the decline means that the price has formed the bottom of the monthly line due to the huge change of hands in the market.

The behavior of central banks around the world this time is essentially the same as writing down the "answer" on the last major math question in the college entrance examination and copying down a bunch of formulas. The main purpose of central banks is to maintain bond spreads on the one hand. 1. To maintain the stability of the exchange rate. On the other hand, it is to support the real economy and maintain the stability of the financial market.

Data source: OKEX

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V-shaped reversal is a bottom form that rarely appears in actual trends. The reason why Bitcoin forms a V-shaped reversal is because of the extreme panic in the early stage and the stampede of crowded leveraged trading, which caused an extreme plunge in the market. During the plunge, the trading volume was released. Most users cut their meat and left the market at the bottom to form a full change of hands, and most of the users in the market formed a short position. Such an extreme market caused the market to appear short positions caused by extreme light positions, thus forming a V-shaped reversal. .

In the process of reversal, due to the shattering of the previous "halving belief", a large number of retail investors have a very firm bearish and short mentality, and their positions are very light or hold a large number of short positions. In fact, this mentality is very conducive to the long-term persistence of the reversal to date. From the contract basis and sentiment indicators, it can be seen that with the breakthrough of the Bitcoin price against the first-line resistance of $8,200, the sentiment on the market has just reversed from a unilateral bearish direction. As the last 12 days of the halving are approaching, the two buying forces, the chasing up of short positions on the market and the favorable landing of the game, will push Bitcoin to continue to maintain a unilateral upward trend before the halving. Up to $10,000.

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