guide
guide
core point of view
core point of view
The sharp drop in BTC is mainly due to: the epidemic has swept the world, and the world may be in an economic crisis; investors are recovering liquidity out of the need to repay debts, resulting in the failure of safe-haven assets; the quality of BTC "digital gold" has been challenged; encryption High leverage in the market intensified the downtrend.
The risk release is relatively sufficient, and BTC may have bottomed out. The impact of the epidemic on BTC market confidence may have been fully released in the process of BTC falling from $7,980 to $3,800 this time.
In the long run, it is inevitable for BTC to go bullish. Since 2014, BTC computing power has been on an increasing trend; after the sharp drop this month, the number of BTC active addresses has not decreased significantly, and the willingness of OTC funds to BTC has not diminished.
Adhere to value investment and long-term investment. After more than ten years of development, investors' awareness and recognition of BTC has continued to increase. In the long run, BTC has great potential for development.
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Risk warning: regulatory policy risk, market trend risk
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1. The epidemic is sweeping the world, and the encryption market is now diving
The new crown epidemic has swept the world, and the encryption market is now diving. On March 12, BTC crashed, and the price plummeted from $7,980 to $3,800, a drop of 52%, causing the market to panic.
The sharp drop of BTC is mainly due to: the epidemic has swept the world, and the world may be in an economic crisis; investors are recovering liquidity out of the need to repay debts, causing the failure of safe-haven assets; the quality of BTC "digital gold" has been challenged.
First, due to the impact of the epidemic, the world may already be in a new round of economic crisis. U.S. stocks have experienced continuous circuit breakers, which is unprecedented. The stock markets of various countries followed suit, and European stocks continued to fall. Once the economy begins to decline, it will form an "avalanche" effect.
This economic crisis is superimposed with the triple factors of supply shock, demand shock and financial shock, and its severity is likely to be second only to the "Great Depression" in 1929. We named this time: "2020 Global Economic Plague".
Second, liquidity dries up and safe-haven assets fail. The new crown epidemic has swept the world, market panic has soared, and major investment markets around the world have plummeted. In order to repay debts, investors recovered liquidity and cashed out various liquid assets, and even the price of gold also fell. ,
Third, the quality of BTC "digital gold" has been challenged. On the one hand, BTC does show a certain safe-haven value: in June 2019, due to the trade war and other reasons, both BTC and gold rose sharply; in the US-Iran crisis in early 2020, BTC and gold rose again. But on the other hand, BTC's response to international events is uncertain, and not every time hedging works. For example, in early February, when the epidemic swept the world, BTC was not sought after like gold, but the price continued to decline.
Fourth, the high leverage in the crypto market intensifies the downtrend. In the traditional financial market, the multiples of leverage transactions are low, often lower than 10 times, but in the encrypted asset market, the leverage multiples set by exchanges are usually higher, and leverages of dozens of times can be seen everywhere, and some exchanges are even as high as 200 times. times.
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2. Risk release is relatively sufficient, BTC may have bottomed out
Currently, BTC lacks fundamental analysis logic and a relatively complete analysis framework. Because of its 7*24 hours of trading, no external intervention by regulatory agencies, no price limit, no circuit breaker mechanism, and almost no interference from monetary and fiscal policies, short-term market fluctuations are basically determined by market confidence.
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3. In the long run, it is inevitable for BTC to go bullish
In the long run, the logic that determines the future of BTC and the dividends brought by the halving market will not change.
The total amount of BTC is constant, but the number of users is constantly increasing. Since the advent of BTC, the number of users has been growing steadily; and the reduction of BTC production is sure to happen every four years. Despite the sharp drop, in the long run, the BTC computing power has always maintained a growth trend. At the beginning of 2019, the BTC computing power of the entire network was only 42EH/S. On the 29th, it still reached 104EH/S; in addition, the number of BTC active addresses did not drop significantly.
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4. Control risks and invest rationally
At present, digital tokens are still in the early stages of development, and the price fluctuates violently. Investors should reasonably evaluate their investment capabilities and risk tolerance, choose trading platforms carefully, use leverage reasonably, and strictly control investment risks.
we are at
we are at"Which Contract Risk Control Company is Strong? ——Token Derivatives Exploration 4"This article compares the risk control level of futures contract products of OKEx, Huobi DM, Binance Futures and BitMEX several leading trading platforms. Among them, Huobi DM's overall risk control ability is in the first echelon of the industry, especially recently, Huobi has comprehensively lowered the adjustment coefficient of various contracts when the position is small. So far, Huobi Futures has the "Four Protection Laws" to protect the interests of investors, namely, low maintenance margin rate, stepped liquidation mechanism (no liquidation fee), forced liquidation circuit breaker mechanism, and risk reserve system. Among them, the stepped liquidation The mechanism can effectively reduce the risk of liquidation of all user positions at once.
During this round of slump, the trading volume of Huobi contracts was in the first echelon, but the liquidation volume was relatively low, which was related to Huobi’s low adjustment coefficient and low maximum leverage. The leverage multiple is 20 times, and other exchanges are as high as 100-125 times. Huobi also reminds investors of the risk of high leverage in investor education, and discourages immature customers from using high leverage.
Reasonable use of leverage, the high volatility of the encrypted asset market exacerbates the leverage effect. Leverage expands trading funds by using the investor's own principal as a margin to borrow from the platform, but it also increases risk. Reasonable use of tools such as leverage and contracts can exert its functions of avoiding risks and improving the efficiency of capital use.
Strictly screen the underlying assets and stay away from air tokens. Air Token attracts investors with high risk appetite with its extremely high rate of return. However, behind these Air Token, most projects do not have any application scenarios or the application scenarios cannot be realized at all.
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5. Platform pass, the opportunity under the plunge
In addition to BTC, mainstream platform tokens also have high investment value.
Relying on the digital asset trading platform, the platform token is currently the only investment target with a relatively clear business model in the encryption market. The mainstream platform token often has the profit of the exchange and rich application scenarios as value support, so it has been widely recognized by investors. recognized.
The investment value of mainstream platform tokens is mainly reflected in the following two aspects:
First, rich application scenarios.
For example, Huobi’s platform token HT has rich application scenarios: HT deduction fee and tiered fee rate system; supports HT as a margin for cross-position leverage; supports staking, lock-up mining; supports the use of HT to enjoy hotel services; At the same time, HT will also serve as the only underlying token of the Huobi public chain.
Second, platform tokens are repurchased and destroyed.
At present, most tokens in the market do not have the support of corporate cash flow, and the repurchase and destruction of exchanges have an obvious supporting effect on platform tokens. Taking HT as an example, the burning of HT includes the income of Huobi Global Station and Huobi DM. Recently, Huobi DM has launched perpetual contracts, and the perpetual contract business will also be included in the scope of HT burning. In this round of slump, most digital assets denominated in BTC have declined to varying degrees. From March 12 to March 30, ETH and LTC fell by 15.9% and 7.8% respectively relative to BTC, and HT rose by 7% against BTC. This is inseparable from the abundant cash flow repurchase support of the exchange behind it. After a long period of repurchase and destruction strategies, a total of 197,469,600 HT tokens have been destroyed, accounting for 39.5% of its total initial issuance.
Spring River Plumbing Duck Prophet, in the long run, it is inevitable that BTC will go bullish. Under the bull market, mainstream digital asset trading platforms will have more considerable income for repurchases, and mainstream platform tokens may also be the first to recover.
Due to some reasons, some nouns in this article are not very accurate, mainly such as: general certificate, digital certificate, digital currency, currency, token, crowdsale, etc. If readers have any questions, they can call or write to discuss together.
Note:
Due to some reasons, some nouns in this article are not very accurate, mainly such as: general certificate, digital certificate, digital currency, currency, token, crowdsale, etc. If readers have any questions, they can call or write to discuss together.
For the original text of the report, please refer to the research report released by [Tongzhengtong Research]: "Reflection and Opportunities after the Plunge - Blockchain Event Comments 0331"
