Editor's Note: This article comes fromStar Media STARMEDIA (ID: Star_Media1), Author: Xianyu, reproduced by Odaily with authorization.
Star Media STARMEDIA (ID: Star_Media1)
Star Media STARMEDIA (ID: Star_Media1)
, Author: Xianyu, reproduced by Odaily with authorization.
Riots, pneumonia, locust plagues, circuit breakers, 2020, is there anything worse than this? The global economy is once again at an inflection point of crisis.
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Inside and outside the besieged city, how can we distinguish between you and me?
Just as the "good news" that Bitcoin is about to be halved did not stimulate the market to get out of the "mavericks", 2020 also broke everyone's illusions!
In the traditional Chinese concept, even numbers often represent completeness, blessings, and good luck, such as Double Happiness, Liuliu Dashun, Baba Dafa, etc. It is hard to get through the bad 2019, but 2020 has just started. Just feel cool.
Prohibition of entry, attacks on Chinese, forced repatriation, ban on export of masks...
At the end of 2019, the new crown pneumonia swept the world. Among them, the epidemic situation in my country was relatively tense. What is surprising is that it has been treated differently by some Western countries. Prohibit the export of masks to China..."
Invisibly, China has become an independent "besieged city".
But practice has proved that with almost no foreign aid, the Chinese people turned the situation around by relying on self-help. Many foreigners who were ridiculed and ridiculed at the time now want to enter this "siege city" that they despised at the beginning to seek help.
The cost of the epidemic is heavy, not only for the body, but also for the economy!
Although the epidemic prevention and control has been effectively controlled, enterprises in various places have resumed work and production on different scales, and related economic indicators have also shown different growths, but the realization status is not satisfactory.
According to data from the Evergrande Research Institute, compared with the financial crisis in 2008, my country’s industrial output from January to February increased by -13.5% year-on-year, urban fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) increased by -24.5% year-on-year, and total retail sales of consumer goods A year-on-year increase of -20.5%, the damage of the epidemic far exceeds the impact of the 2008 financial crisis on my country's economy.
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Source: Evergrande Research Institute
Apart from China, other countries may fare worse
In terms of the epidemic, as of March 26, the epidemic has spread to more than 150 countries and regions around the world, with a total of more than 500,000 people infected.
In terms of economy, within a few weeks, the U.S. stock market has experienced circuit breakers four times. Major stock markets in Europe and the United States have entered a technical bear market one after another. Oil prices have dropped from $60 at the end of last year to more than $20 a barrel. China, Spain, France, Iran, etc. have all become hardest hit areas.
On the other hand, the GDP income of the United States is seriously deformed, and more than 80% of the GDP income comes from the financial industry.
In this epidemic, the weak U.S. financial system was once again exposed. In the past month, the once-in-a-century circuit breaker fell four times in a few weeks, and the three major stock indexes all fell by more than 30%.
Although the United States is trying to deal with the liquidity crisis caused by the epidemic by issuing more treasury bonds and increasing market liquidity, it still cannot change the fact that U.S. treasury bonds have been sold on a large scale in the short term. On the other hand, the Fed's loose monetary policy has also accelerated the process of depreciation of the dollar.
Looking back at the beginning, when the epidemic broke out in China, the United States sneered and ridiculed. I thought I could be alone, but now I am in a "shackle".
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Blockchain, breaking the situation in 2020, helping new infrastructure
Looking back at the country, 2020 is the final year for my country to build a moderately prosperous society in an all-round way and the "13th Five-Year Plan". China's economy is entering a stage of high-quality development from high-speed growth.
However, the sudden outbreak of the new crown pneumonia disrupted this plan, and many industries were in a state of closure of enterprises and employees. Both domestic demand and foreign trade have shrunk sharply.
According to research data from third-party organizations, among China's exporting countries in 2019, the European Union and the United States accounted for 16%, ranking the top two.
According to the latest data, the European and American manufacturing PMI index hit a record low, and the Baltic Dry Bulk Index (BDI) also hit a new low. China’s export growth rate from January to February was -17%. It is predicted that the second quarter will show a relatively large negative growth .
Although local governments now require enterprises to resume work and production, it does not make much sense to require enterprises to resume work and production when external demand is rapidly declining or even shrinking, and a large number of external demand orders have been canceled.
The epidemic has come and the economy has suffered setbacks. How to help enterprises survive and achieve steady growth?
Can we engage in unlimited quantitative easing like the United States, inflating the economy, or find another way out?
Judging from the decision-making deployment of the central government to resume work and production, all policies in the next stage will be formulated and implemented around "steady growth".
Judging from the current global situation, the "new infrastructure" of the whole country may be the way out for economic revival. By improving relevant infrastructure construction, while stimulating domestic demand, it will also stimulate production and provide a large number of employment opportunities, thereby stimulating the market to achieve independent balance. .
A few days ago, the central government has set the keynote: in the next 20 years, the new infrastructure supporting China's economic and social prosperity will be 5G, blockchain, artificial intelligence, data centers, Internet and other technological innovation infrastructure, as well as education, medical care, social security and other people's livelihood. Infrastructure in the field of consumption upgrades.
For this reason, in the beginning of 2020, the relevant agencies announced the No. 1 Central Document, which clarified the new infrastructure as the starting point and leverage point of the economy after the epidemic, which mainly involves 5G, artificial intelligence, blockchain and other related modules.
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New infrastructure, the "acceleration" of the blockchain
"Take the blockchain as an important breakthrough for independent innovation of core technologies, and accelerate the development of blockchain technology and industrial innovation" - Xi Jinping
In fact, as early as October 2019, the Politburo meeting of the Central Committee took blockchain technology as a special discussion, raised it to the level of national strategy, and continuously increased the application scenarios of related industries. The status of blockchain in the country's important pillar industries has been further improved .
As a new underlying technology, the blockchain is essentially a shared database, and the data stored in it is non-tamperable, traceable, open and transparent, and guaranteed in multiple places. These characteristics have laid a solid trust foundation for blockchain technology and can create a reliable trust mechanism.
Combined with the problems exposed by the epidemic, there are still many things that the blockchain can do:
Credible logistics data allows donated materials to go directly to designated terminal departments, allowing donors to donate clearly and avoiding "confused accounts" of the Hubei Red Cross Society.
