01 Shutdown time

In the early morning of March 13, Bitcoin plummeted again, falling as low as $3,800.

Just at 6:00 p.m. the previous day, Bitcoin had just experienced a sharp drop, dropping $1,536 in 15 minutes.

This is an unprecedented decline in Bitcoin: In two days, the price of the currency fell by 52%.

"This is the real 'halving market'." A person in the currency circle sighed, "Now buying coins is much cheaper than mining coins, and miners can take a vacation."

At 7:50 p.m. on March 12, the Bitcoin network packaged the 621342nd block. Since then, for as long as an hour, the Bitcoin network has not been able to produce a block.

Many people interpret "no blocks" as a large number of mine shutdowns. For a while, the currency market panicked.

Several mining pool practitioners do not agree with this. They told a blockchain that a large number of mine shutdowns can lead to no blocks, but no block does not necessarily mean that a large number of mine shutdowns. In the history of Bitcoin, the event of no block within an hour often occurs, and there is no need to over-interpret it.

However, at the juncture of Bitcoin's stampede-like plunge, shutting down has still become a common choice for many miners.

"Last night, many miners were doing the same thing, which was to notify the operation and maintenance brothers of the mine to shut down." Miner Wu Liangping told a blockchain.

He watched the waterfall come.

"At about 9:00 p.m., I notified the mine to shut down for the first time. The first batch of shutdowns were small computing power machines such as Antminer S9 and L3+." Wu Liangping said.

At that time, his idea was that the old mining machines should be shut down first, and the new mining machines that are still profitable should not be moved, and at the same time observe the subsequent development of the currency price before making a decision.

According to the data from F2Pool, as of 11:00 on March 13, based on the electricity price of 0.36 yuan/kWh, most mainstream mining machines are close to the shutdown price.

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The Yuchi APP shows that some mining machines have reached the shutdown price

For the new mining machines in the past two years, such as Antminer T17, Antminer S15, and Whatsminer M21S, electricity costs accounted for more than 90%. Even the S19 Pro, which has the lowest energy consumption ratio, accounts for as much as 50% of the electricity bill.

Similar to two years ago, the mining disaster in the currency circle came again, but this time the mining disaster appeared more suddenly.

02 Shuffle is coming

According to data from F2Pool, from the evening of March 12 to now, the computing power of the entire Bitcoin network has dropped from 113EH/s to 108EH/s, and the fluctuation is not obvious.

"Even if there are a large number of miners shutting down, the computing power of the entire network will not suddenly plummet overnight." Bai Zhiguo, the owner of the mine, said.

First of all, this is because the first to shut down are old mining machines such as Antminer S9. The first batch of shutdowns are often small miners with only a few or dozens of S9s. They are numerous and loud, but their computing power accounts for a very low proportion of the entire network.

Secondly, even if the miners ask the mine to shut down, the mine may not actually implement it.

"Many mines will 'cut computing power', that is, change the mining machine's coin receiving address to the mine's own, and continue mining." Bai Zhiguo explained, "This is equivalent to the mine owner using someone else's mining machine to mine for himself. mine."

The reason for this phenomenon is that the electricity price charged by the mine owner to the miners includes a series of costs such as cost electricity price, operation and maintenance, and rent. Even if the miners shut down, the cost of the mine owner will not be less.

In addition, the risk tolerance of mine owners is generally stronger than that of miners, and they don't care about the temporary rise and fall of currency prices. "Conscientious mine owners will rent some mining machines to the miners after cutting the computing power; unconscionable ones will dig secretly." Bai Zhiguo said.

There are various indications that although the computing power of the entire network is still calm, under the slump, the mining circle is undercurrent.

A new round of reshuffle is coming.

Compared with miners and mining farms, the plunge of Bitcoin has a greater impact on the mining machine circle.

Compared with miners and mining farms, the plunge of Bitcoin has a greater impact on the mining machine circle.

In the mining circle, the mining machine can be regarded as a contract product, and the bet is the income in the next few months. Therefore, the pricing of the mining machine is directly related to the currency price and mining difficulty.

In the mining circle, the mining machine can be regarded as a contract product, and the bet is the income in the next few months. Therefore, the pricing of the mining machine is directly related to the currency price and mining difficulty.

The bleak mining machine market has also caused mining machine stocks to plummet. Under the dual pressure of the U.S. stock market and the sharp drop in the currency market, Canaan Technology’s stock price fell 10.23% yesterday, which was lower than the performance of the Nasdaq market.

03 Awe of risks

Currency prices are constantly falling, and the prospect of the mining industry is unclear. Under the huge risks, many industry practitioners call on miners to respect risks and remain calm.

"Before this round of slump, the currency circle was affected by the halving expectations, and the whole was very optimistic. The computing power has continued to grow for two months, indicating that miners are constantly buying new mining machines, and the industry has accumulated certain risks." Blockchain Hao Tian, ​​the author of the self-media "View on the Chain", said.

However, the sudden plunge caught many miners off guard and suffered heavy losses.

"The biggest impact of the sharp drop in currency prices on us is that the currency cannot be sold." Bai Zhiguo said.

Bai Zhiguo runs a mine in Guizhou, which has both its own mining machines and hosting business. Since the beginning of the year, he has been hoarding coins and waiting for the price to rise after the halving. The sharp drop of Bitcoin in the past two days has directly locked up the coins in his hands.

"We insist on 10 days at most. After 10 days, we will sell the currency regardless of the currency price." He said.

The plunge caused heavy losses to many people in the mining circle. Wang Yang, the owner of the mine, said that the coins in his hands plummeted by 500,000 overnight. But he is still lucky compared to those miners who pledge coins in exchange for loans.

"This morning, everyone is saying that the owner of a certain mine liquidated hundreds of BTC," he said.

In the face of mining disasters, mining reform is imminent.

"What miners need to do now is to improve their ability to resist risks, not increase leverage, hoard less coins, and ensure the smooth flow of legal currency cash." Bai Zhiguo said.

In Wang Yang's view, the best time to upgrade mining machines has come. "Everyone thinks that a mining disaster is coming. When no one is mining, it is time to buy bottom mining machines." He said.

At present, the mining circle generally believes that the S9 mining machine, which is expected to withdraw from the stage of history after the end of the wet season in 2020, is likely to withdraw early. "The exit of S9 is not necessarily a bad thing. If S9 is not shut down, new mining machines will not be sold, and mining machine manufacturers will not launch more new models." Wang Yang said.

Under the mine disaster, miners and mine owners need to improve the operating efficiency of the mine. Perhaps, this mining disaster will force the entire mining industry to upgrade.

Right now, Wang Yang is starting to buy mining machines to fill up his own mine. As early as last year, he continued to sell old mining machines and buy new mining machines. "When everyone else shuts down, I can mine more coins." He said.

According to statistics, with the last two plunges of Bitcoin, 38 mining machines have fallen below the shutdown price.

"Mining disaster is coming!" Many miners shut down their mining machines overnight, and some sadly bid farewell to the industry.

Now, another round of reincarnation and another round of shuffling is coming.

* Some interviewees in this article are pseudonyms.