Editor's Note: This article comes fromHoneycomb Finance News (ID: fengchao-caijing), Author: JX kin, reproduced by Odaily with authorization.
Editor's Note: This article comes from
Honeycomb Finance News (ID: fengchao-caijing)
, Author: JX kin, reproduced by Odaily with authorization.
On March 12, the "Live for a Long Time" waterfall market made BTC's risk-averse attributes once again questioned by the outside world, and also let currency market investors, DeFi platforms, and miners in the mining circle see the large-scale risks before the halving market.
Afterwards, each link begins with "disaster reconstruction" and restoration. Some contract investors lowered their positions and began to manage stop-profit and stop-loss more strictly; some miners stepped up to deploy mining machines with low energy consumption ratio to avoid being shut down; some DeFi platforms started large-scale debt liquidation...
As of 20:00 on March 15, BTC was temporarily reported at $5,400, a drop of 46% from this year's high of $10,000. The hard-hit currency market will enter a new period of remodeling.
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"There is nothing (after the disaster) to rebuild or not. This market is like this, with great fluctuations." Contract trader Yu Lei (pseudonym) gradually recovered from the currency disaster on March 12, and lowered his position. You will forget to set a stop loss line.
Now recalling last Thursday’s waterfall market, Yu Lei still has lingering fears, “I was in a daze at the time, and I couldn’t suppress my shock even after drinking water.” He owed 10% to opening that day. Fortunately, he closed his position in time so that he did not explode. warehouse.
At around 6:30 pm on March 12, when Yu Lei was about to go home from get off work, a colleague in the office asked him, "Bitcoin 7200, is it possible to copy a wave of bottom?"
He joked, "What's the bottom line, what's the deal?" He did open a long order, half an hour before the waterfall started. Before leaving the office, the phone on the table vibrated one after another, reminding him that the $7,000 stop loss line he had set was about to be triggered. He hurriedly opened the exchange account to see if all his pending orders had been sold.
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On March 12, the lowest fell to 5550 US dollars
At that time, the market line on the screen took a turn for the worse. Yu Lei was relieved when he saw that all his stop loss orders were closed when the client network was intermittent. "The contract lost 10%." Within 10 minutes , Bitcoin fell all the way from $7,200 to $5,555, a drop of 32%. The media person who updated the market report expressed emotion, "The speed of writing cannot keep up with the speed of price drops and data changes." At the same time, mainstream currencies such as Ethereum and EOS also fell, and the market page became red.
According to the social trading platform Contract Emperor APP, during this period, the market liquidated a total of 1.317 billion US dollars, equivalent to more than 10 billion yuan. Yu Lei is glad that he set a stop loss reminder, and the position was not liquidated, otherwise he would have become a contributor to the 10 billion liquidation amount.
The data on the amount of liquidation has not stopped. In the morning of the next day, the price of Bitcoin dropped again, falling as low as $3,800, a drop of more than 50% in 24 hours, and the liquidation amounted to $4 billion, affecting about 140,000 contract traders.
The contract trading market is littered with corpses, and spot investors are not spared either. Investor Wang Lei (pseudonym) sold 1/3 of his holdings, but he does not intend to leave the market, and is still waiting for an opportunity to buy bottoms. Finally, at Bitcoin 4,000 He bought some when there were more dollars, and his intention was to "lower the cost of holding positions."
When the hedging properties of Bitcoin were no longer prominent, the sharp drop made it return to the characteristics of speculative products, and the market consensus on it was once again in crisis, leaving behind those who love to trade freely in the currency market and play with high-risk coins civil.
"Bitcoin is still valuable." Although the value may need to be reshaped, Wang Lei believes that BTC will still rise slowly. "In the long run, it is still a target that continues to rise. Slowly increase positions and see long-term opportunities."
Despite the market decline that day, the number of active Bitcoin addresses rose to a new high in 2020. According to data provider CoinMetrics, the number of addresses on the Bitcoin blockchain reached 909,600 on that day, followed by a slight increase in the next two days. Decline, until March 14, a total of 772,700, an increase of 4% over the same period last month, and an increase of 50,000 compared with the same period last year during the bull market. In fact, on March 11, the number of addresses holding 1 BTC or more has reached 795,630.
In addition, the transaction volume also rose sharply on March 12, with a volume of 2.35 million BTC. From the data point of view, the market decline did not drive away the holders of BTC.
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Mining circles increase revenue and reduce expenditure to avoid elimination
"You must not increase the leverage." Marvel Capital Mint reminded her peers that in the second half of last year, she created the Wonderful Mine and entered the mining circle. At present, the main mining machines in the field are M20S and Ant T17. "The Wonderful Mine mainly uses Self-operated machines with large computing power are the main ones, so the impact this time is not big.”
This unexpected plunge in the currency market has poured cold water on Mint’s confidence in the halving market. When the epidemic came at the beginning of the year, she had a premonition that the economy would be affected. "The market's response to the epidemic was that the stock market fell in a row, but I didn't expect oil to fall so much." It eventually spread to the currency market.
In response to the market warning brought about by this drop, Mint told Honeycomb Finance that it is necessary to iterate mining machines as much as possible, and use mining machines with low power consumption to maintain a computing power advantage in the market. "The wave of miners who increased leverage at the end of last year are now really It was very hard."
As of March 15, Bitcoin had risen to $5,200. According to F2Pool data, the two main mining machines operated by Wonderful Mining Pool currently account for 72% and 82% of electricity costs respectively. Machines with high power consumption and low computing power, such as T2T and S9, can only be temporarily shut down.
Unit power consumption is close to 90% when the unit power consumption is 60W/mine machine
Yu Wei, the founder of Zhijian Core Cloud, also mentioned in an online event that the drop in currency prices has a huge impact on mine operations. He estimated that one-third of the mines would choose to shut down. It is a four-year production reduction. Before the production is halved, the currency price will be halved first, which will cause many mining factories to be unable to find suitable machines or even close down.
Yu Wei thinks that the confidence of miners will also be frustrated, and the investment will decrease accordingly. This linkage will cause the output of mining machine manufacturers to drop, and the mine may face no machines to find. It is suitable for new models, and we will do it towards a higher standard."
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The first large-scale liquidation on the DeFi platform
Compared with the centralized management of the currency circle business body, the sharp drop hit the decentralized financial market on a large scale for the first time, and the emerging mortgage lending products encountered a series of crashes.
At 4 pm on March 12, Xu Yingkai, the founding partner of BlockVC, warned on Weibo that if Ethereum fell to $160, MakerDAO, the world's largest DeFi project, would start large-scale liquidation and liquidation. The systemic risk in the decline."
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(MakerDAO Weibo response)
MakerDAO officially reposted this Weibo and responded that this picture is a single-mortgage version, accounting for only 1/6 of the entire system. The mortgage rate of the entire Maker system is around 300%, theoretically it can withstand an 80% drop, so there is no need to worry too much.
Later, the MakerDAO official responded again, saying that 80% means that Maker can withstand 80% of the market volatility risk and maintain system robustness. It is recommended that users who are about to touch the 150% liquidation line repay their debts as soon as possible.
Three hours later, the currency price fell, and existing users were liquidated because they were too late to repay their debts. Not only did ETH fall below $160, but it fell directly to $87 the next morning.
The data shows that on March 12 alone, the total amount of liquidation on the DeFi platform exceeded 11 million US dollars on that day, and large-scale liquidation occurred on multiple DeFi platforms, among which the liquidation amount on the Compound platform exceeded 4.6 million US dollars, accounting for nearly 40% of the total amount of DeFi liquidation; dYdx liquidation The amount of liquidation is about 3.74 million US dollars, ranking second in the liquidation scale, and the liquidation amount of MakerDao is 2.59 million US dollars.
On the morning of March 13, ETH fell to $87, and a large number of loans fell below the mortgage threshold, triggering liquidation procedures. According to the rules, the liquidation process is carried out in the form of mortgage auctions, and users can obtain mortgaged Ethereum by bidding for DAI. But as the market crashed, some liquidators won the auction of the Ethereum collateral liquidation program with $0 bids for DAI, which resulted in MakerDAO having $4 million in outstanding loan debt.
