Editor's Note: This article comes fromChain reference (ID: lianneican), Author: Internal Reference Jun, reprinted by Odaily with authorization.

Editor's Note: This article comes from

Chain reference (ID: lianneican)

Chain reference (ID: lianneican)

, Author: Internal Reference Jun, reprinted by Odaily with authorization.

March 12 was a day that was even more tragic than the US stock market circuit breaker 3 days ago; the whole world is in circuit breaker!

On this day, the global stock market, the same sky, the same stock market crash. Not just a plunge day, but a circuit breaker day.

The Philippine stock market was blown out, the Thai stock market was blown out, the Pakistani stock market was blown out, Britain, France, Germany, Indonesia, etc. were close to a blowout, and the U.S. stock market was also blown out at the opening... Except for China, the whole world seems to be blown out.

This is the second time this week that the U.S. stock market has been blown out, setting a record; the U.S. stock market has fallen by nearly 30% from a high level, and it has officially entered a bear market! This global collapse is more dangerous than the economic crisis in 2008!

Unexpectedly, we not only witnessed the new history of US stocks! At the same time, in the evening, Bitcoin also witnessed a rare big crash.

According to data from Huobi Global, BTC fell by more than 20% within half an hour. At 18.47, a big negative line with a drop of 5.44% directly dropped the price to $5555.55. The market value has evaporated by 21.1 billion US dollars.

The most tragic thing is that the contract market has exploded both long and short. Correspondingly, the digital currency contract market has not been spared either. According to the latest data from Coin, in the past 24 hours, the total liquidation of the entire network has reached as high as 2 billion US dollars. Among them, $1.29 billion was lost in Bitcoin, $174 million in Ethereum, $61.27 million in EOS, $84.27 million in BCH, $28.6 million in LTC, $36.54 million in XRP, and $47.16 in BSV 10,000 USD, ETC liquidated 9.83 million USD, TRX liquidated 3.61 million USD. The largest single liquidation occurred on the Huobi Exchange, where BTC worth $58.32 million was liquidated. According to QKL123 data, the total market value of cryptocurrencies plummeted by more than 24% within 24 hours, to only 1.3 trillion yuan. During this rapid plunge, nearly 80,000 people became victims of liquidation.

Compared to Bitcoin, other cryptocurrencies fell even worse. According to AIcoin monitoring data, the total market value of cryptocurrencies is about 1.19 trillion, a drop of more than 350 billion, or about 22%. Among them, ETH fell by more than 26%; BCH fell by more than 33%; LTE fell by more than 27%; BSV fell by more than 36%; EOS fell by more than 27%. Among the currencies, except for the stable currency USDT, all currencies fell by more than 20%.

In the midst of grief, many cryptocurrency investors are not calm. Has the myth of Bitcoin as a "safe haven asset" in the past been shattered? Has it even become synonymous with high-risk assets?

one way or another? We still need to have an objective and rational understanding of the Bitcoin crash, and adjust our investment strategies in a timely manner.

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Bitcoin is not immune to the deterioration of the external environment

According to incomplete statistics, within one day on March 12, the stock markets of 8 countries including the United States, Brazil, Canada, Thailand, the Philippines, South Korea, Pakistan, and Indonesia experienced circuit breakers. Biggest one-day drop in years.

International oil prices continued to drop sharply, and market concerns about the imbalance between supply and demand intensified. As of press time, the main contract of WTI crude oil fell more than 4%, and the main contract of Brent crude oil fell more than 6%.

To add insult to injury, CME Group (CME), the parent company of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange and the Chicago Board of Trade, said on March 11 local time that in order to reduce large gatherings that may help the spread of the new crown virus, it will close the market on Friday. After closing its Chicago trading floor. This is currently the first major U.S. exchange to close its trading floor in response to the outbreak.

"Bitcoin cannot avoid being affected by the current market turmoil. Due to the coronavirus panic, Bitcoin may fall to a lower level of $6,000." In this regard, Bitmex CEO Arthur Hayes previously said. However, the performance of today's encrypted digital currency market has far exceeded his imagination.

Wang Hang, an analyst at the Shanghai-based encrypted digital currency market, said: "The COVID-19 epidemic spread rapidly, global stock markets suffered a frantic sell-off, and even gold fell. The stock markets of three countries triggered a circuit breaker. Prior to this, the Brazilian stock market had been circuit-breaker twice, the US stock market was circuit-breaker again today after all the circuit-breakers on Monday, and the Kuwaiti stock market was also circuit-breaker on Monday. The new crown epidemic is posing severe challenges to the global economy. In order to deal with possible triggers In the face of the economic crisis, the UK and the US have cut interest rates urgently, and other countries are also formulating rescue and other economic stimulus measures. If there are still people in this market who encourage investors to enter the market, it is tantamount to quenching thirst with poison.”

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What about the expected Bitcoin halving?

In the history of Bitcoin, the first two rounds of Bitcoin halving will push the price of Bitcoin to rise significantly. But this pattern seems to be out of order this year.

There are only more than two months left before the third Bitcoin production cut on May 18. However, Bitcoin has been falling since reaching its highest point of $10,457 in 2020. On February 20 this year, Bitcoin fell by nearly $1,000 in a single day; on March 8, Bitcoin fell below the $8,000 mark and fell by more than 10%. It means that the price is halved and the asset is halved.

Today, some Bitcoin investors also said: "The agreed halving market originally refers to the halving of the currency price. I have always believed in the halving market, I believe in the future of Bitcoin, and I believe that it can fight the global economic crisis. Foreign epidemics are getting worse and worse. Seriously, the economic situation is getting worse and worse, and the more assets are converted into Bitcoin. Now it seems that I was wrong."

William, a senior researcher at OKEx Research, pointed out that the subsequent recovery of the virtual currency market may be difficult. Black swans such as the epidemic and the plunge in oil prices, as well as gray rhinos such as the debt problem of the non-financial corporate sector in the United States, continue to play a role. In fact, there is no room for fiscal and monetary policies in the United States. Big, when the time comes a real crisis may erupt.

However, many analysts are still optimistic about the halving market. Cryptocurrency analyst Tone Vays said that the halving of production will help the price of Bitcoin continue to rise, destroy altcoins such as Litecoin, and consolidate Bitcoin's position in the virtual currency system. Technically speaking, the price of Bitcoin is unlikely to be below $5,000 by the end of 2020. After the halving of Bitcoin production, 70% of the mining machines were shut down due to negative returns, and the price of Bitcoin spiraled down, and then came back to life.

Arthur Hayes, CEO of encryption exchange BitMex, still believes in Bitcoin's status as a safe-haven asset, saying that by the end of 2020, Bitcoin may still rebound to $20,000.

Data has shown that Bitcoin can occasionally be an effective substitute for traditional markets. Wind’s data analysis on major global asset classes shows that from the beginning of 2020 to the present, the rate of return of Bitcoin is 10.53%, ranking first among major global asset classes, while COMEX gold ranks second. It is worth mentioning that Bitcoin’s return in 2019 was 87.48%.

In the 60 days before the halving in 2012, at this stage, the halving was generally greeted with a fluctuating upward trend. After the halving, there was a slight sideways movement, and then there was a main rising wave with an increase of 20 times.

From this point of view, historical data tells us that BTC is currently about 60 days away from halving, and the price trend fluctuates widely between the previous high and the previous low, which is in line with the historical law of the previous two halvings.

And the duration of each dress market is about one year. Affected by the "black swan" incident this time, it may be a good time to build a low position.

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The mining industry is on the edge of life and death

In fact, the continued decline of cryptocurrencies will not only affect the shrinking wealth of currency holders, but also affect the miners and mining machines in the industrial chain. This plunge will be a nightmare for mining practitioners.