Moderator: Tina, Regional Development Director of OKEx

Special guest: OKB Operations Officer

Mr. Kangkang

The former co-founder of the third-party investment research organization Bicheng Evaluation, has been focusing on the research of the blockchain industry for more than three years. He is currently an analyst at the research institute and the keynote speaker of the video "Odaily TV".

Tina: Analysis of the recent market, has the production cut market been consumed by the previous wave of rise?

Teacher Kangkang:

This graph shows the basis for quarterly delivery contracts. The difference between other spot and quarterly contracts, when the quarterly contract is greater than the spot, we call it premium. We can find around $10,500, the premium at that time was very high. Not only the premium of the delivery contract, but also the premium of the perpetual contract. The highest price in the past few days will rise by nearly 5%. What is the concept of 5%? We look back at the price of Bitcoin close to 20,000 US dollars in 2017. At that time, it was basically only 6%.

Not only futures, but also the leverage of margin financing and securities lending business is also very high, the highest is 34:1. It can be said that people are very bullish. The trading volume of futures is obviously higher than that of spot. The transaction volume is much higher, and there is a feeling of lack of momentum in the spot market.

Therefore, there are several factors for the decline in the past few days: one is that the rising water was relatively high at that time, which carried the pressure of arbitrage, and the contract basis -- the rising water. Trading volume. Another part is that the overall market capital is insufficient. After the overall contribution to the pressure level of the previous few times, the rapid decline reached a minimum of 8,400 US dollars.

The last wave has consumed one of the benefits of halving. The halving market, generally speaking, is very conducive to Bitcoin. This year is a halving year when mainstream coins get together, so everyone predicts that there will be a good market. But we can find that not only Bitcoin, but also BCH, BSV, and ETC at that time have a retracement of more than 30%. Some have even recovered more than 50% at the lowest point. This has led to a huge number of lock-ups, and they are all heavy-volume retracements. At present, the above pressure level is relatively heavy. I probably predict that it will be difficult to break through the previous high.

Tina: One of the hot spots that everyone has been paying attention to these days is the 50 basis point interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve. What impact will this have on the market?

Teacher Kangkang:

On Tuesday, the Federal Reserve announced a holiday of 50 basis points, which is generally positive for Bitcoin.

The 50 basis points in the above picture, the first time in the past 30 years, the first time was in the Russian sovereignty crisis in 1998, and the second time, it appeared in the Internet bubble at that time. The subprime mortgage crisis in 911 and 2008 can be said to be at the level of a financial crisis, when such a 50 basis point interest rate cut was adopted.

In the vernacular, the interest rate cut means that the money you use is cheaper, and the interest rate you deposit, you get less interest. The interest rates for companies or individuals to borrow from banks have also become smaller. After the interest rate is lowered, neither individuals nor companies want to keep their money in the bank, and may find some higher interest rates for investment. In general, lower interest rates allow more money to circulate in the market and make the economy run better.

We can see that the unemployment rate has gradually declined in recent years, and the US stock market has risen particularly well before the outbreak.

The Fed cut interest rates in August 2019. Monetary policy generally adopts this kind of counter-cycle. When the economy is overheating, we usually raise interest rates. Let less money circulate in the market. When the economy is too cold, or when there is an expected downturn, we cut interest rates like this. It can be said that the world economy has been in a downward state since last year.

The recent market sentiment is very panic, and the long-term and short-term treasury bonds of the United States have fallen particularly sharply recently. There is even an inversion phenomenon, the interest rate and income of short-term government bonds are higher than that of long-term government bonds. The ten-year national debt reflects people's confidence and sentiment towards the country.

The VIX index is a panic index and is also very high. It is close to 2001, when the Internet bubble panicked, it was measured according to the volatility.

The most recent retracement of U.S. stocks was even above 15%, close to 20%. Some people think that there may be an economic crisis. First of all, an economic crisis cannot be ruled out, because the epidemic has indeed affected the production of various countries. But after the outbreak, all countries and companies have corresponding plans, corresponding to the country's monetary policy and fiscal policy. A cash flow reserve for a company. There will always be a certain plan, so it is relatively difficult to happen in this situation, the economic and financial crisis.

So don't panic, the period may have to wait a few months, or even the third quarter and the second quarter, it may be a good buying opportunity. The trend of China's A-shares is obviously independent, and the epidemic in China is under control to a certain extent. Therefore, compared with some overseas stock markets, it has a certain hedging effect.

Generally, gold and US stocks, as well as the US dollar, are negatively correlated. It is positively correlated with the quantitative easing policy of the whole world. Quantitative easing leads to more money circulating in the market, and people prefer to find safe-haven assets. There are not only safe-haven assets and alternative assets, but they also perform better in the context of economic crisis or quantitative easing.

Alternative assets are different from traditional stocks, bonds, etc., such as real estate. Hedge funds, private equity funds, commodities, and art. Including Bitcoin, all belong to this alternative asset.

Some people want to make an analogy between Bitcoin and gold. We can find that the trend of gold and Bitcoin in 2019 is relatively similar, especially in the second half of the Sino-US trade war. People may think that Bitcoin has a certain hedging effect, but judging from the recent market situation, gold has risen very well, but Bitcoin has gone out of a downward market instead. It shows that Bitcoin as a safe-haven asset is controversial. At present, Bitcoin can only be put into the scope of an alternative asset.

At present, gold is close to a plate of 10 trillion, while Bitcoin is currently only 160 billion US dollars. It can be said that the difference is relatively large, and the relative degree of concentration and control of Bitcoin is relatively high. Hedging funds Hedging assets need to carry a large amount of funds, so Bitcoin has certain hedging properties at present, but it is more of a risky alternative asset.

Why Bitcoin has not had a very good trend recently, one is the recent periphery, including the stock market, commodities have great fluctuations, which makes Bitcoin as a whole lack the attractiveness of a volatility. The rise of Bitcoin this time from 7,000 US dollars to 10,000 US dollars may only increase by 30 to 40%. Is the increase very attractive? For example, Tesla, some pharmaceutical stocks, commodities, copper, gold, and silver all have relatively large fluctuations.

Tina: Mr. Kang Kang, as a professional investor, will give you some investment experience and risk tips

Teacher Kangkang:

Compare the one that is bullish on Bitcoin in the long run. Because the uncertainty of the current epidemic is still quite large. Although various countries and companies have plans, once it is under control, it may be at a low point relative to the stock market or some assets. But is it still very uncertain? I suggest that you can wait for a while, maybe even until the second half of the year, and it might be good to end in July and August. So it is suggested that you can wait and find some high-quality assets to put in your investment list.

There is a 28-20 rule in the financial secondary and secondary markets, even if only 2-3% of the people make money, then the rest of the people are losing money. In ordinary people, most of this survivor bias occurs. Futures requires a very high degree of professionalism. Not only does it need to control the entire position, but it also needs to be hedged. A very good understanding of the transaction depth in various markets requires professionalism.

The important thing is the control of your position and your evaluation of this transaction. On the whole, you need to evaluate the profit and odds of the transaction, as well as the point fee you get and the stop loss stop loss stop profit position. Constantly improve your trading system.

In the bull market of A-shares in 2015, retail investors accounted for 3/4 of the total funds, while profitable funds accounted for 1/4, while institutions accounted for 1/4 of the total funds but accounted for 3/4 of the total profits (the 28th law, even in reality Among them, the proportion of retail investors in US stocks is only 6%.

In the bull market of A-shares in 2015, retail investors accounted for 3/4 of the total funds, while profitable funds accounted for 1/4, while institutions accounted for 1/4 of the total funds but accounted for 3/4 of the total profits (the 28th law, even in reality Among them, the proportion of retail investors in US stocks is only 6%.

The current currency circle is similar to the early A-share market. At present, the proportion of retail investors is relatively high. The high probability of increasing leverage can only magnify the losses of individual investors, and whether leveraged investment is low leverage or high leverage, the management of positions, The control of points, as well as the control of stop profit and stop loss are very strict (so futures require a very high degree of professionalism, because human judgment will always make mistakes, and when there are many bulls and shorts in the same direction, there are also To have a hedging position, you need to have a good understanding of the market, such as the trading varieties and trading depth of each exchange, whether to hedge between spot and futures, or between futures and options, or between different trading varieties. Hedging, etc.), leverage can not only magnify profits, but also magnify mistakes. In the secondary market, survivor bias often occurs. Most of the people who play futures with a net worth of over 10 million or even over 100 million People belong to the survivor bias (for example: if the probability of your winning is 1/2 each time, if you win 10 times in a row, 1 person in 1,000 people will win 10 times in a row) (retail investors are more likely to play futures Following the sentiment of the market, chasing ups and downs, the biggest contribution may be to contribute handling fees to the exchange)