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before us
the interview
As well as many self-media reports, it is said that the epidemic has no negative impact on the blockchain industry except for office models and offline activities. Investors in the currency circle should still speculate in coins, and exchanges should make money. make money.
Today, the economic effect of the "black swan" of the novel coronavirus pneumonia epidemic is becoming prominent. As we all know, the epidemic has the greatest impact on my country's private small, medium and micro enterprises, which can be described as a fatal blow. Most of the enterprises in the blockchain industry were only registered from 2018 to 2019, and 99% of them belong to the category of private small, medium and micro enterprises. If the epidemic rages like SARS for half a year, the consequences will be disastrous.
Some people also said that the outbreak of the crisis does not mean that the god of death is coming, and it may also be a leap.
Because the social problems exposed during the epidemic will promote the development of the blockchain to the ground, and even step out of the world's top 500 companies.
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Virus outbreak: traditional stock market fell 10%, new species bitcoin soared 42.6%
Ray Dalio (Ray Dalio) is the founder of Bridgewater, the world's largest hedge fund company, known as the Jobs of the financial world. Over the past 20 years, Bridgewater Fund has created an average annual return on investment of more than 20%, managed funds of more than 150 billion US dollars, and accumulated profits of 45 billion US dollars. At the same time, Dalio is also the author of "Principles" and "The Debt Crisis".
After the outbreak of novel coronavirus pneumonia in China, Dalio published an analysis article "Preliminary Analysis of the Impact of Coronavirus on the Global Economy" at the end of January. ". In the face of the unknown of the virus, Bridgewater adjusted its planning to dilute the risk and "sensibly diversified its investments across different geographical locations, asset classes and currencies."
Dalio reviewed H1N1 (bird flu) in 2009, SARS (atypical pneumonia) in 2003 and Spanish Flu (Spanish flu) in 1918.
The Spanish flu, which was the most contagious (infected about 500 million people and killed about 50 million people), had a much greater impact on the market and the economy than the previous two - due to the end of the First World War and the lack of sufficient economic statistics, so it is difficult to analyze its specific impact on the economy.
At the beginning of the epidemic that occurred in China at the end of 2019, the growth target market showed a strong downward trend, and investment shifted to high-quality target markets. Globally, investors have sold stocks, while bonds, gold and the dollar rose against the yuan.
Of course, these are just Bridgewater's preliminary observations. For the further direction of the market, more in-depth research is needed. On the other hand, during the epidemic period, investing in the new species of bitcoin exceeded US$10,000 from 6,400 yuan a year ago, and then some exchange platform currencies and altcoins took advantage of the trend, with a significant increase. The second halving, the currency circle can be described as a long drought and rain, and the whole presents a thriving state.
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Enlightenment from SARS: those Fortune 500 companies that survived death
At present, almost all enterprises are facing the difficulties of employees not being able to return to work normally, paying employees' salaries, social security, office rent, etc., and paying huge costs in the case of zero income, especially for physical enterprises, catering and entertainment industries. Jia Guolong, Chairman of Xibei Youmian Village, said "If the epidemic is not effectively controlled in a short period of time, the cash in Xibei's account will not last for three months", which profoundly expounds the current situation of most enterprises.
During the SARS outbreak in 2003, all enterprises encountered similar difficulties.
17 years ago, they gritted their teeth and took active countermeasures, and the companies that finally weathered the storm survived and achieved retaliatory growth, growing into giants in their respective industries—including Alibaba, JD.com, and Ctrip Tourism, New Oriental, etc.
In early May 2003, a colleague of Alibaba was diagnosed with SARS after participating in the Canton Fair. Eventually, more than 500 colleagues in Alibaba's entire company were quarantined and all employees were forced to work from home. Under tremendous psychological pressure, Jack Ma arranged for employees to work from home in an orderly manner. However, facing the then American e-commerce giant eBay, Jack Ma still insisted on launching Taobao, a To C-end. After the epidemic, Taobao's development skyrocketed and developed into today's Taobao Empire.
Founded in 1998, Jingdong was called "Jingdong Multimedia" at the time. Its main business is CD discs and recorders. After four years of development, it once accounted for 60% of the national optoelectronic products market share. The high-spirited Liu Qiangdong was preparing to further expand the scale in 2003, but SARS brought it to an abrupt end. All Jingdong store entities were closed, and faced the same fate as today’s Xibei Noodle Village—the company’s book funds can only support three moon.
But sometimes a crisis doesn't mean death, it can be a leap.
Inadvertently, JD.com also found a new business model - closing stores and selling products online. Online shopping is a very suitable thing for all the citizens who are stuck at home and cannot go out. During this period, Liu Qiangdong survived SARS by selling goods online. And came out with a new business model, which proved to be the right path. So far, JD.com has become the second largest e-commerce platform in China after Taobao.
However, it is not so easy for companies suffering from the crisis to survive. If Ali and JD.com can still obtain a small amount of income through online sales, then companies like Ctrip that focus on the travel industry can only bite the bullet resisted. However, in the face of the plummeting business, but can't do anything, what the founder Liang Jianzhang showed was not disappointment and negativity, but great foresight.
He is sure that after SARS, the tourism market, which has been "imprisoned" at home for a long time, will usher in retaliatory growth.
As can be seen from the last disaster, SARS was a tribulation, but also an opportunity. It forced e-commerce and the Internet industry to make a leap in the crisis, and became the top 20 Internet giants in the world. Those companies that defeated SARS explained with their achievements that "whatever doesn't kill me will make me stronger".
Today, the blockchain industry, which has been developing for 10 years, is facing the same pressure, and there are wailing and corpses everywhere. "It doesn't take more than half a year like SARS, just so far, many well-known companies have issued various cries for help, and some companies have even declared bankruptcy. In this case, for some companies, the three A month or even less is his lifeline," said Chang An, co-founder of Hufu Exchange, to Star Media.
Will the blockchain under the epidemic usher in a leap through the crisis? Will a group of giant companies be born like the Internet in 2003?
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Blockchain: A single spark can start a prairie fire
In the article "The Transition of the National Digital Governance System after the Epidemic", Hao Tian believed that in the SARS epidemic 17 years ago, "what we really gained was a wave of Internet-based 'network inquiry'". When the system, media public opinion environment, and public welfare and people's livelihood services are subjected to unprecedented stress tests, "digital governance will also be included in the next stage of the country's governance system."
In the upgrade of the digital governance system, blockchain is an irreplaceable technology. The blockchain has unique advantages in the transparency of government affairs processes, the improvement of organizational coordination efficiency, and the acceleration of data capitalization to enhance the benefits of vertical industries such as public welfare/people's livelihood/finance, and "the next step is likely to emerge in the blockchain industry. The country will take the lead in implementing the blockchain governance plan, explore the possibility of blockchain + government affairs/people's livelihood/supply chain finance, accelerate the issuance of the central bank's digital currency (DCEP), and data assetization will gradually develop.
In this regard, Leslie, CPO of the decentralized e-commerce platform Origin (Origin) Agreement in China, agreed, "This epidemic has a more obvious positive point for the blockchain industry, which is blockchain traceability/authentication/identity verification/ Technologies such as payment will be valued by governments around the world after the epidemic.”
Regarding this epidemic and the social problems exposed, on the one hand, many blockchain companies have extended a helping hand in the most critical situation; on the other hand, more voices have proposed to government agencies to establish a blockchain Traceability, public welfare donation system and other practical applications. Hufu Changan thinks this is a very good phenomenon, "Blockchain has experienced a lot of stigma in the past, but when the country is in trouble, we see that many blockchain practitioners and enterprises are very active I have made a certain contribution, donated money and materials, and even suggested that my users do what they can, I think this behavior is still very honorable for the blockchain industry.”
One of the programmers who made the assistance was from the ant blockchain. He said that these positive behaviors really use the blockchain technology to achieve "information publicity, the whole process can be traced", and by the way let "my mother understand what I did. What is the blockchain for?"
In addition to the efforts made by blockchain practitioners after the outbreak, my country's philanthropy is not behind in digital governance technology, and the application of blockchain in charity has long existed. In a recent interview with Milin Finance, Huang Tianwei, executive vice president of the Shenzhen Information Service Blockchain Association and founder of BitTimes, said: “Alibaba has developed a blockchain-based charity system in 2017. The public chain of this charity system has been done very well, but so far it has not been extended to the Red Cross. Whether the Red Cross dares to use it, whether it can be used, or whether it wants to use it is another matter.”
Huang Tianwei then added: "The blockchain system can improve and optimize our current social charity structure. But there is still room for evil. We need to look at it with two sides and constantly improve the mechanism."
So to a certain extent, the technology of the blockchain has matured, but the most difficult part in the implementation process is not the technology, but the contest and friction of various forces when it is put into practical application—with decentralized and distributed ledgers Facing some stubborn traditional interest groups, blockchain technology, which has the advantages of being non-tamperable and non-tamperable, is destined to have a long way to go.
