Editor's Note: This article comes fromStar Media STARMEDIA (ID: Star_Media1), Author: Xuesui, reproduced by Odaily with authorization.
Editor's Note: This article comes from
Star Media STARMEDIA (ID: Star_Media1)
, Author: Xuesui, reproduced by Odaily with authorization.
Recently, there are two things that everyone is more concerned about. One is the new type of coronavirus pneumonia that has attracted worldwide attention, and the other is that Bitcoin broke through the $10,000 mark on February 9.
Some analysts believe that the continued spread of the novel coronavirus, its impact on the global economy and the panic it caused are the main reasons for this wave of bitcoin rise.
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The epidemic is raging, and the traditional economy is slowing down
Delayed resumption of work, A shares dive
According to the official data of the National Development and Reform Commission, the number of private enterprises in my country has exceeded 27 million, and the number of individual industrial and commercial households has exceeded 65 million. The private economy accounts for more than 80% of the gross national product, and the employment contribution rate exceeds 90%.
At the same time, due to the impact of the epidemic, the performance of stocks was also not satisfactory. The A-share Shanghai Composite Index plunged from 3127 points to the lowest point of 2685 yuan on January 13, a drop of 14.13%.
Gold linkage, overall stability
When there is war and economic downturn in the society, people usually choose gold and other assets as safe-haven assets.
This economic setback, gold is no exception, and has once again become the safe-haven choice for many people. From the perspective of time and trend, the two have a strong positive correlation. International gold has continued to grow since December 16. It is currently trading sideways to the $1,578 mark, an increase of 7.12%, and the overall increase is running smoothly.
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The awakening of Bitcoin, is it accidental?
Since last year, governments of various countries have successively intervened in the supervision of virtual currencies. The price of Bitcoin has dropped from US$11,000 to US$6,400, and has continued to hover at a low level. Many investors saw the hopelessness of the bull market and left the market at a low price.
And just on February 9, Bitcoin suddenly went up and broke through 10,000 US dollars. Many people expressed doubts about the reason for the rise of Bitcoin this time. Is it accidental?
Before the outbreak, the price of Bitcoin hovered at $6,400 for a long time. As the epidemic continued to worsen, market panic continued to rise, and the price of Bitcoin also rose all the way to the $100 million mark. Bitcoin, which has been silent for nearly half a year, within a few weeks, the increase 42.85%, 6 times that of gold.
Industry analysts believe that it may be affected by the following factors:
market rejuvenation
The epidemic is serious, and the supervision has no time to take care of it. Both investors and job seekers are looking for new opportunities, and the market is gradually entering the stage of returning to normal operation.
In the past years of Bitcoin, February seems to be a lucky month for Bitcoin, which will bring a wave of upward trends, and this year is no exception.
Halving strikes, market expectations rise
As we all know, every time Bitcoin is halved, it will start a new round of Bitcoin bull market. Therefore, both market makers and ordinary investors hope to seize market opportunities in the halving bull market.
Economic stagnation, new safe-haven assets become "hot goods"
Recently, "Forbes" magazine stated that with the continuous improvement of people's social awareness, Bitcoin has attracted a new round of attention because of its simplicity of investment and higher security as a substitute for traditional currencies.
At the same time, it also pointed out that the advantages provided by BTC include the reliability of investment and the current market valuation of assets, which are closely related to the needs of the public for asset preservation, and can avoid the inability to maintain value in time due to wars, economic downturns, and geographical factors. and other disadvantages. For many, it was a matter of time before Bitcoin became popular in various transactions.
However, the novel coronavirus pneumonia this time has led to a slowdown in global economic activities, a continuous loss of market value in traditional industries, and a reduction in investment returns. Therefore, Bitcoin has attracted a new round of border investors to enter the market, expanding the halo of retail investors by a circle. Second-rate.
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Coronavirus, the driver of the bull market
Looking back at history, we can find that every time Bitcoin is halved, not only the price rise is caused by the reduction of production, but there are many leading factors behind it.
For example, on November 28, 2012, Bitcoin was halved for the first time, and the price rose from $20 at the beginning of the year to around $260, with a maximum increase of 1200%.
Economists believe that one cannot blindly believe that halving will start a bull market. The currency crisis broke out in Cyprus in March 2013, and a large number of people exchanged their legal currency for Bitcoin, which was the fuse of the 2013 Bitcoin bull market.
The second halving bull market in 2017 was mainly due to the one-click currency issuance mechanism of Ethereum, which changed the traditional digital currency fundraising method and made it easier to raise social funds. It can be said that it is a technical change that has led to The linkage effect brought by more investors entering the market.
So, this year, will the new coronavirus be the driving force behind the bull market before the Bitcoin halving?
time dimension
From the perspective of time dimension, it is relatively consistent. Looking back at the past two halvings, there were economic, policy, technological and other driving factors before the halving. However, the outbreak of the novel coronavirus pneumonia is only about 100 days away from the third Bitcoin halving. Time, and the follow-up virus situation is bound to also affect the price trend of Bitcoin.
economic dimension
The reality is very sad, but we have to admit that the epidemic has brought comprehensive blows to all walks of life, and some are even devastating.
Businesses are shut down, shops are closed, employees are unemployed, and the market value of traditional industries is lost. Even for gold, which is a safe-haven asset, a series of mining, processing, circulation, and transactions will be affected by many human factors. Bitcoin, which is convenient for transactions and the global consensus , Is it a better choice, worthy of our consideration?
