Total texts: 1,784
Word Estimated Reading Time: 5 minutes
image description
Source: Chain.info
Will these prophecies be fulfilled? From the perspective of historical data, the past two halvings of Bitcoin occurred on November 28, 2012 (block height 210,000) and July 9, 2016 (block height 420,000). Before and after the past two halvings, the price of Bitcoin has experienced several times or even dozens of times of growth. It can be said that the first two halvings were in the middle of the bull market. This price change pattern is the main reason why everyone is eagerly looking forward to this halving. Even some less obvious price changes, such as price increases and sharp corrections before each halving, seem to have been fulfilled again in this year's market conditions. From the perspective of price changes, the benefits of halving are just around the corner.
secondary title
image description
Source: Chain.info
We all know that Bitcoin is released online as new blocks are generated, which means that its issuance rate will gradually decrease over time, and the halving every 4 years will also halve the issuance rate. As shown in the above table, during the first halving, the annual increase rate of Bitcoin dropped sharply from 25% to 12.5%, and the annual output dropped from 2.63 million BTC to 1.31 million. Before the second halving, the annual issuance rate had declined from 12.5% to 8.3%, and the impact of halving on the annual issuance rate was only 4%. When this halving occurs, the annual increase rate of Bitcoin will be about 3.6%, and the loss of increase rate caused by the halving will be less than 2%. Even counting only Bitcoins with effective liquidity, this figure does not exceed 2.5%. Compared with the effective circulation of nearly 15 million bitcoins, the reduction in supply brought about by halving (about 330,000 BTC per year and about 900 BTC per day) may have a much smaller impact on the market than imagined.
secondary title
image description
Source: Chain.info
Although reducing the selling pressure of 900 BTC per day may not have a great impact on the trading market, miners need to sell BTC to earn electricity and machine purchase and operation costs. Judging from the current BTC price and computing power competition, this halving will have a greater impact on the BTC mining industry.
From Chain.info’s computing power and miners’ income data, it can be seen that the daily income per TH computing power was about $1.56 at the time of the last halving. Based on the Antminer S7, the main mining machine at that time, with a power of 1.3kW, a computing power of 4.7TH/s, and an electricity price of 0.3 yuan, the cost of computing power per TH is about 2 yuan per day. If calculated based on the S9 that was launched shortly after the halving, the cost will be lower. After production was halved, daily revenue was still clearly profitable after covering electricity costs. The current daily income per TH computing power is about 0.13 US dollars (calculated at 7,000 US dollars), based on the most advanced Antminer S17 (not yet mass-produced) with 2.9kW and 73TH, the daily cost per TH computing power is 0.29 yuan. After the output is halved, the income will be very close to the electricity price cost. If the mining machine model is older, or the cost of the mining machine needs to be converted, the income will not be able to cover the cost.
in conclusion
in conclusion
Disclaimer: The opinions involved in this report are based on comprehensive research and judgment based on data analysis. They are only for reference and not as investment basis. Risky investment in currency speculation requires caution.
Disclaimer: The opinions involved in this report are based on comprehensive research and judgment based on data analysis. They are only for reference and not as investment basis. Risky investment in currency speculation requires caution.
