Editor's Note: This article comes fromTalk about Xia Kanshi (ID: huaxiakiss), Author: Hua Xia, published by Odaily with authorization.
Editor's Note: This article comes from
Talk about Xia Kanshi (ID: huaxiakiss
Talk about Xia Kanshi (ID: huaxiakiss
), Author: Hua Xia, published by Odaily with authorization.
Many people have asked me recently: Do you still believe that the bull market is coming?
A few days ago, there were some policies on "currency" in China; at the same time, there were news that some third-, fourth-, and fifth-tier exchanges were linked, suspended operations, and ran away; there were also some zjp-type News that the project has been registered.
Then, more friends came to ask me jokingly: Do you still believe in the bull market so firmly?
This is not an exception, it is a common phenomenon. Don't underestimate the psychological impact brought about by the previous wave of decline. Although the magnitude is not very large, the emotional impact brought about by the policy-policy and news should not be underestimated.
What's more, because of such a comprehensive impact, some former BTC fans began to ask themselves: Is there still a so-called halving market?
All of this is nothing more than a "side effect" of the recent ups and downs in prices. Especially those who trade frequently or increase leverage, their psychology is seriously unbalanced, questioned, and panicked.
Take some time today to chat a few words, what you say may not be right, friends, please think about it:
1. The halving market is not only because of the halving, but also the resonance formed by the unique cycle of the industry.
The halving market is a unique saying in the circle. People who don't understand BTC must be confused. To put it simply, it is not that BTC does not increase its supply, but that the supply rate has been halved. The current daily output of BTC is 1,800. After the halving in May 2020 (expected time, maybe earlier), the daily output will be reduced to 900.
On the corresponding demand side, the price is gradually oversold, and the side effect of blockchain science popularization is the increase of potential new BTC users. When the supply side is halved, the price will naturally have a long-term upward reflection.
For some people, it is said that when the halving occurs, all the good will turn into bad. How to look at this, the premise is to look at the long and short term. In the short term, before and after the previous BTC halving time points, BTC has been a performance of rising and falling. From this dimension, it is right that all the benefits are exhausted; and in the four-year cycle, the previous BTC performance I also tell you that the fall before and after the halving is nothing but a reorganization on the road to the bull market, and the trend remains unchanged.
Let’s take a look at this cycle. If calculated based on the highest point of BTC’s previous cycle on December 18, 2017, it has been a downward trend for almost two full years. To be more precise, from December 18, 2017 to March 2019, it was a unilateral downward trend. From then on, the market has been in the process of bottoming out, accumulating funds, and washing up.
If the alternation of bulls and bears is compared to yin and yang, then no matter how the internal details change, no matter whether it is the appearance of black and white swans, or the fabrication of true and false bad news and good news, they will not be able to jump out of the cycle change in the end. If you admit that the previous two years were a bear market, then you should believe that a bull market at the year level is about to usher in the future.
The bull market is precious, and it is really coming, but you really don’t know it because you are obsessed with short-term news and fluctuations. What a pity!
2. Your emotions are negative teaching materials. There is always someone smarter than you.
For most people, especially amateur investors/speculators, don’t take it for granted that you are a minority in this industry, but you should admit your cognitive limitations in this area, and then classify yourself as the majority in the industry.
With such mental preparation as support. Then, after you have fully analyzed, reasoned, and emotionally reacted, you might as well do it the other way around when you actually perform the operation. (This process is indeed very tangled, twisting).
For example, I firmly believed that the bull market was coming for a year. But the recent policy-policy and technical aspects make you feel uncomfortable. When you start to doubt and question, you let yourself feel this oppressive atmosphere, the more real the better, and then when the actual implementation , may wish to boldly buy some. After trying it, you will feel very good.
The market will never lack smart money or smart people.
This reminds me of the memoirs of an old leek who entered the circle in 2012. In his memoirs, he told about the changes of BTC believers in the same group as he faced the bull-bear cycle. One of them is that on February 6, 2014, MtGox, the world's largest BTC trading platform, was stolen and declared bankrupt. This incident raised doubts about the safety of BTC, and the price of BTC fell to 4,500 RMB. After that, BTC entered a long period of low price adjustment, fluctuating between 4,000 yuan and 2,000 yuan, and 2,000 RMB is considered an absolute support level. However, at the beginning of 2015, the price fell to 900 RMB inexplicably without being particularly negative.
At that time, several big households (firm believers) around him cut their flesh. Although he still persisted, he felt isolated and unable to find a psychological support. He even dared not write articles related to BTC because he would be scolded by readers. . When the price hit 900RMB, he felt like a brave man. He canceled the publication of an article he had written, then turned on his computer, and resolutely started buying BTC. A little bit, but in hindsight it was also an enviable price. According to his complaint, when he actually entered the market to buy, he realized that he was not fighting alone. The rush to raise funds was very fierce that day, and the short-term trading volume was huge. Only then did he realize that all the tense atmosphere was man-made. The atmosphere made people lose themselves and lose their direction, while the truly smart funds were always waiting to be attacked.
Does this sound like March of this year?
3. Distorted psychological journey in the face of policies.
I have to admit that people's psychology is very strange. This is manifested in the deafness to the facts and the difficulty of not being able to seek truth from facts.
The day before yesterday, I drank tea with a friend and talked about the phenomenon of the two worlds of chain and currency. I asked him: As far as the facts are concerned, have you really never thought about the current policy measures for currency? No, you also admit that it is absolutely impossible for the currency circle to go on like this, and sooner or later there will be corresponding strong supervision. For example, some three-, four-, five-, and six-tier exchanges-exchanges run their own banks to harvest investors and project parties at will; while ZJP projects have entered the market with a high profile, looting ordinary people’s money in an extremely obvious way (think of the "Mario-style" K-line trend) All kinds of bad deeds, etc., can this really last? Obviously not.
Therefore, supervision will come sooner or later, but this time the country's vigorous publicity of blockchain technology has prompted the launch of supporting supervision. This is good, my friends.
If the market wants to get out of a real bull market, can it take a few months to complete the harvest of ZJP with a lot of chicken feathers left? There must be project support with fundamentals, technical aspects, and application support. The introduction of supervision is naturally to eliminate certain cancers, otherwise bad money will drive out good money (just like model projects have become a trend for a certain period of time this year, and the project side that is doing things has become a laughing stock).
