(picture from
(picture fromCointelegraph）
Ethereum replaces Bitcoin as the anchor asset of various altcoins
It can be seen that the multi-army force of Bitcoin is actively buying at the $8000 line
Market review
Market review
On the afternoon of September 30th, Bitcoin began to rise, rising from $7800 to above $8400. During the National Day holiday, Bitcoin went all the way down and returned to $7800; on the afternoon of October 7th, another round of rising started, and finally in After rushing to $8800 on the morning of the 11th, it was hit hard, and fell back sharply below $8400 in a short period of time. In the past few days, Bitcoin has repeatedly tried to hit the 200-day moving average as the dividing line between the bull and the bear, but failed, showing that the overall market is still extremely unclear, and many air forces have frequently fought in this area.
The "altcoin season shows more signs" explained in the September article of the OKEx Investment Analysis Department is still valid. This is true for both the trend before the plunge on September 25 and the strength after the rebound from the plunge. As of 12:00 Hong Kong time on October 12, the returns of many large-cap currencies against Bitcoin in the past 30 days have been relatively impressive, ETH/BTC - 24%, XRP/BTC - 28%, XLM/BTC - 26%, TRX /BTC – 30%, LINK/BTC – 90%, BAT/BTC – 36%, ZRX/BTC – 105%. At the same time, PoW currencies did not perform well following the trend of Bitcoin, and the returns of BCH and LTC were negative during the same period.
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Figure 1: 9/1 – 10/12 Bitcoin Price Index – Yellow; Ethereum Price Index – Red; MVIS Medium Market Cap Currency Price Index – Blue – MVIS
technical sidehttps://www.mvis-indices.com/indices/digital-assets/mvis-cryptocompare-digital-assets-100-mid-cap/components
technical side
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Figure 2: Altcoin Total Market Cap/Bitcoin Total Market Cap Curve - Black, The Curve Weekly RSI - Red, Bitcoin Price - Yellow – charts.woobull.com
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Emotional side
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Fundamentals
Fundamentals
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news side
news side
The Devcon conference, the most important conference of Ethereum this year, was held in Osaka. It is reported that the "zero phase" of Ethereum 2.0 will be launched before the first quarter of 2020, and the genesis block is expected to be dug out in early 2020. The continuous improvement of the Ethereum ecosystem and the market's expectations for Ethereum 2.0 are the basis for the relatively strong trend of Ethereum in the near future.
Canaan, a cryptocurrency mining machine manufacturer, plans to go public in the United States on November 20, planning to issue 126 million new shares, with an estimated market value of approximately US$1.5 billion. Upstream mining machine manufacturers will be listed one after another at the end of this year, but the current concentration of funds in the upstream has also partially led to insufficient funds in the market, and the reduction of Bitcoin production in April next year may be a reshuffle of the mining ecology, that is, many mining machines are in the market. Unable to continue to make profits after production cuts.
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macroeconomic
On Friday (October 11), US time, China and the United States reached a limited trade agreement in Washington. The U.S. will suspend tariff increases next week, and China will also buy large amounts of U.S. farm products. However, it is expected that the Sino-US trade agreement negotiations will still experience various twists and turns. But shares of U.S. stocks with large operations in China surged, with Apple up 2.7 percent and an index of semiconductor companies that rely on Asian supply chains up 2.3 percent.
But during November, U.S. stocks fell nearly 3 percent on Tuesday and Wednesday, experiencing their worst two-day return this year, as weak economic data sparked fears of a recession. The U.S. Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) fell to 47.8, further indicating that the U.S. manufacturing industry is shrinking. A reading below 50 indicates that the economy is in contraction. However, non-farm payrolls for September, released on October 4, were moderately positive. Although slightly lower than expected, the number of new jobs was still higher than the replacement rate.
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Figure 7: Changes in U.S. PMI and S&P 500 YoY yields since 2003 – orange/blue
The Federal Reserve announced that it will purchase US$60 billion of treasury bills per month until at least the second quarter of 2020, and also announced that it will continue to implement positive repurchase until the first quarter of 2020. The Fed's balance sheet has resumed expansion, suggesting limited additional monetary easing in the medium term. Cutting interest rates and expanding the balance sheet will help push up the stock market's price-earnings ratio. Historically, the best years for Bitcoin yields have occurred in years when the S&P has outperformed, with Bitcoin up an average of 1800% (Fundstrat) when the S&P rose 15% or more.
In addition, there is also a new situation in the U.S. bond yield curve. The interest rate is no longer inverted and has begun to steepen again. We will cover this part in next week's market analysis article.
Outlook for next week
Outlook for next week
Risk warning: This article does not constitute an investment recommendation. Investment is risky. Investment should consider personal risk tolerance. It is recommended to conduct an in-depth investigation of the project and carefully make your own investment decisions.
Risk warning: This article does not constitute an investment recommendation. Investment is risky. Investment should consider personal risk tolerance. It is recommended to conduct an in-depth investigation of the project and carefully make your own investment decisions.
