Editor's Note: This article comes from Editor's Note: This article comes from（ID：liantazhiku）Mars Mars blockchain
The scope of this test is controlled within a "limited scope", so it is unlikely to have a direct impact on the current market. After the test is successful, it will be possible to conduct real transactions on the platform. At that time, some institutional traders will approach.
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Bakkt - Bear Light
Douglas North, a Nobel laureate in economics, proposed a theory of "path dependence" to explain the evolution of economic systems. In layman's terms, this theory means that once human society forms a fixed mode of operation in terms of economy and technology, It will continue to strengthen itself in this mode due to the force of inertia, so as to maintain the specific path of the system.
From the current point of view, there seems to be no fixed model in the field of encryption economy. In many cases, a simple coincidence combined with the opportunities of the times can create a legend.
The most notable example is Binance. When Binance was first established in July 2017, almost all large exchanges in China had their own legal currency trading channels. The convenient legal currency trading form also lowered the threshold for new users to enter the market. , Coupled with the bull market at that time, the life of the exchange can be regarded as a flourishing day, full of fire.
Zhao Changpeng was also a little bit moved. After resigning from OKEX, he thought it was the best time to come back out of the arena. He consulted a big boss in the industry, but the big guy poured cold water on it, saying that he should not open fiat currency transactions, so that he could Much less hassle.
We all know what happened later. After 1994, due to the strategy of focusing on currency transactions and globalization, Binance rose rapidly. In less than two months, the transaction volume increased by nearly a hundred times, and it became the world's largest at that time. The exchanges are still among the top three.
With the example of Changpeng Zhao, Bakkt certainly hopes to become the next "Binance".
Bakkt can be regarded as a rare start-up company born with a golden key in the currency circle. As a digital asset trading platform founded by Intercontinental Exchange ICE, the parent company of the New York Stock Exchange NYSE, Bakkt is a financial institution and commodity trader. Provide services such as digital asset transactions, storage and payment to consumers.
On August 3, 2018, "Fortune" Weekly reported the Bakkt project in detail, saying that Bakkt, which was born in a bear market, carried the hope of many people to reverse the bear market. For cryptocurrency investors, they are very passive in a unilateral downward trending market. If they do not choose to hoard coins at a very high time cost for long-term holding, they can only stay away from this market and wait for the next round of bull market. However, the emergence of futures and contract trading has changed this situation. No matter whether the market is bull or bear, futures contracts have room for value preservation and arbitrage.
It is worth noting that even Li Ka-shing, the Asian superman, has offered him an olive branch. Among the 12 institutions, Horizons Ventures is the investment subsidiary of Li Ka-shing.
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The valuation has surpassed Binance before it was launched
According to foreign media reports, in March 2019, the valuation of Bakkt had reached 740 million US dollars, and the speed of the valuation jump broke the record set by Binance. Bakkt had only been established for half a year at this time, and had not yet launched any products.
The most important reason behind Bakkt's achievement is two words: compliance.
Many people may not understand the importance of compliance. At the beginning of this year, Li Lin, the founder of Huobi, said in an interview that the main task of Huobi this year is not to become stronger, but to comply.
Many people think that for exchanges, shouldn't making money be the most important task?
If you are asked which exchange has the largest trading volume, you can blurt out that it is Binance, but if you are asked which exchange has the highest valuation, few people may be able to answer Coinbase. No matter in terms of transaction volume, popularity or number of users, Coinbase is not comparable to Binance, but why is the valuation of Coinbase more than Binance?
To give another example, many domestic investors have never heard of the Kraken exchange, but its valuation is still as high as $4 billion.
Behind these numbers is all because of compliance.
Compliance directly determines whether investors can withdraw and use traditional financial services.
Many Internet startups in China do not have a clear profit model, but this does not affect their high valuations in the primary market. As the top exchange in the blockchain industry, its profitability has always been good, but it is rare to hear of any exchange that can obtain huge financing in the primary market.
The reason is that the exchange still has a great compliance risk. Since it cannot be recognized by the government and obtain the corresponding license, it is almost impossible for the exchange to be listed on the secondary market. If it can pass through the secondary market, once it cannot be listed, it means that the income cannot be pocketed. Even if you choose the Hong Kong or the US market with relatively loose policies, you still have to solve the local compliance issues. Bitmain’s twists and turns on the road to listing is a typical example.
On the other hand, non-compliance means that you will not be able to use traditional financial services that rely on the government system. Of course, you can exchange all the money you earn into bitcoins in your wallet like Changpeng Zhao, but the scope of use of bitcoins is limited after all. Once you want to exchange bitcoins with fiat currencies, you will inevitably have to use banking services. If the bank freezes your account, there is nothing you can do.
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Is it the fuse of the bull market?
The reason why Bakkt is highly expected by everyone is that the physical delivery of bitcoin is one aspect, and more importantly, it is a futures contract that complies with regulations and bitcoin physical settlement, coupled with the second largest futures exchange in the United States, ICE, as a backer, Bakkt The launch of the Bitcoin is regarded by many as the beginning of the full recognition of traditional institutions and their rapid entry into the digital currency field.
Physical delivery means that real BTC must be used when the contract is delivered and closed. This can not only effectively curb malicious short selling, but also reduce the volatility of BTC spot, thereby attracting more institutional investors to enter the market.
In response to the statements made by the finance ministers of various countries on Libra and other cryptocurrencies at the recent G7 summit, Dawn Stump, chairman of the US Commodity Futures Commission, pointed out that although the standards proposed by the G7 summit are very important, it is more important to understand the ideas and risk tolerance of other regulatory systems.
What the CFTC wants to see are more tokens and contracts, not just cash-settled bitcoin products (which are now exploring ethereum products), he said. The CFTC is also helping market participants share information, slowly changing Congress' perceptions.
Compared with the relatively moderate attitude of the regulators, Caitlin Long, a Bitcoin fanatic with 22 years of experience in Wall Street, has publicly sang the opposite. She believes that Bitcoin should not be financialized. When Wall Street financializes certain assets that the public does not understand, it often brings risks. The subprime mortgage crisis in 2008 is an example.
In October 2018, Bakkt announced that it would launch futures trading in December, but it was finally postponed until July 22 to go online for testing. Although this alleviated everyone’s concerns about Bakkt’s repeated ticket bounces, most users still doubt that it can Whether it will be officially launched in the third quarter of this year as scheduled.
Although Bakkt is still facing many obstacles such as transaction depth, product innovation, user education, and supervision, there is at least the possibility of a breakthrough in compliant futures contract transactions.
Finally, quote Zhang Xiaolong’s words in the WeChat open class——
