This article comes fromnewbtc, original author: Nick Chong
Odaily Translator |
, original author: Nick Chong
Odaily Translator |
Just after the two hearings on Libra in the U.S. Congress ended, Bitcoin finally showed a little vitality in the short-term trend. In just over 8 hours before this article was written, the price of Bitcoin rebounded from around $9,150 to around $9,800, an increase of 7%. What's more, the relative strength index (RSI) indicator is also struggling to break out to the downside, implying that the market is heading further higher, possibly signaling a temporary reversal of the "little bear" trend.
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It is unclear whether Bitcoin has reached the bottom of its recent sluggish performance. If we look back at the history of 2017, we will find that the "small bear" period before the big bull market may last more than six weeks. However, some analysts have now said that the current decline should be over, such as CryptoHamster, who proposed two reasons:
First, the one-day Relative Strength Index and Stochastic iteration indicators are both at their lowest levels in two months, which means the market has entered "oversold" territory. (Odaily Jun o-daily Note: The concept of oversold is usually used in the stock market, which means that after a significant decline in the price of a security, it may rise in the near future) In addition, the moving average convergence divergence indicator has also reached the "0" level upwards. It is also a positive sign;
Second, the Elder's Forse index has reached its lowest point since November 2018, and its historical volatility is almost 100%, which means that volatility has returned to normal levels. (Odaily Jun o-daily Note: The Elder's Forse Index is an indicator designed to show the strength of the trend)
Is Bitcoin Re-accumulating?
Why do you say that?
It is undeniable that after experiencing a period of great heat and hitting a high of $13,000, Bitcoin has indeed experienced some decline recently, and the bulls have not been able to speed up their pace as expected. In the past week, the price of Bitcoin has fallen by about 25%, while altcoins such as Ethereum and Litecoin have fallen by more than 30% to 40%. At the same time, Bitcoin trading volumes have also begun to decline, market sentiment has continued to decline, and Google Trends (Google Trends) search interest for "bitcoin" and related keywords is also on a downward trend.
Although this kind of dramatic decline is regarded as "the end of the bull market" by many people who are bearish on the cryptocurrency industry, in fact, from the analysis of historical trends, Bitcoin needs this kind of callback-more importantly, this kind of callback may be healthy of.
Why do you say that?
If Bitcoin's rise from $3,150 to nearly $14,000 was an "expansion phase," what's happening now is a "reaccumulation phase."
This is very important, because from the perspective of Bitcoin's history (such as 2017), every block incentive halving will be preceded by a new price low and a new price high-if it does not happen, it will It would be surprising, whether higher or lower, means that Bitcoin will not continue to rally to an eye-popping high, and certainly not completely collapse. Therefore, in a sense, this pullback is necessary and expected.
