Editor | Lu Xiaoming
Editor | Lu Xiaoming
Produced | Odaily
According to data from Huobi Global, on June 16, BTC once broke through 9300 USDT, setting a new high in the past year (since May 9, 2018). At the same time, on June 14, the number of Bitcoin daily active addresses exceeded 1 million, which is the first time this indicator has exceeded this standard since 2019.
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The mainstream currency is positive and soars
Previously, the industry generally believed that $9,000 would become an important resistance level for BTC, and BTC also quickly pulled back after breaking through this resistance level for a short time two weeks ago (May 31).
Shao Yuqi, COO of Token panda, told Odaily that BTC successively broke through the three pressure levels of 8300, 8600 and 9000, mainly driven by overseas funds.
"The price of USDT deposits and withdrawals is constantly falling, and it is now as low as the offshore RMB level; on the contrary, USDT deposits and withdrawals in US dollars have seen a premium, which is unbelievable. We can only think that this round of increase was initiated by overseas funds, and the specific reasons are unknown. The best case scenario is that the SEC has new good news leaked ahead of time,” he said.
“The price increase of BTC this time is mainly driven by the fundamentals. The influence of big positive factors such as FB (Facebook) and Bakkt has pushed more fiat currency users to access the blockchain, and other mainstream currencies have followed suit."Li Zhe, a partner of Future Money, also believes that the entry of new funds has driven the price increase. "The entry of large institutions this year will benefit more mainstream currencies."
Li Lianxuan, a senior researcher at OK Research, gave his own analysis from a technical perspective. He believes that from the perspective of technical analysis, on June 14, the 5-day moving average of BTC broke through the 15-day moving average, and the trading volume also rebounded compared with the previous week, sending a signal that the market has entered an upward trend; from MACD Look, the MACD line also broke through the signal line on June 14, sending out a buy signal, so it can basically be confirmed that the market has entered an upward channel from June 14.
At present, on the Huobi and OKEx platforms, there is a significant price difference between BTC futures ($9227) and spot prices ($9120). What does this mean?
Ma Yuantian, a senior researcher at Huobi, believes that the degree of deviation between the contract price and the spot price reflects whether the price fluctuation is reasonable. "Generally speaking, the price depth of the platform, trading users, and risk control level determine the degree of price deviation. In addition, the contract price reflects investors' expectations for future prices. The contract index is higher than the spot index, indicating that users are bullish on the future of BTC."
Li Lianxuan also believes that the price difference means that the market is bullish. "The futures contract has not yet reached the delivery date, and the large price difference shows that the market believes that the future market is optimistic, which also reflects the encouragement of market confidence by this round of rise."
According to CoinMarketCap data, the market capitalization of the entire cryptocurrency market currently reaches $284.8 billion, of which BTC accounts for 57%. While BTC is rising sharply, what will happen to other altcoins?
Li Zhe is not optimistic about altcoins. "Small coins are not solid fundamentals, and the market is too small for big funds to participate."
The rise of mainstream currencies such as BTC is gratifying this time, but this market does not seem to drive the upward trend of platform coins, and the platform coins fluctuate at a high level instead.
Li Lianxuan said that the platform currency is mainly affected by the positive news of the platform, and there has been a large increase in the previous period, so this round did not follow the increase.
Li Zhe is optimistic about the leading platform currency. "The platform currency has risen quite a lot before, and the leading Binance announced that binance.com will no longer provide services to individuals and businesses in the United States after September 12 this year. About 20% of Binance's monthly traffic comes from American customers. It will bring pain. But it will not affect the bullishness of the long-term leading platform currency.”
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News: The strongest supervision is coming, and the Facebook white paper will be released soon
News has always had a profound impact on cryptocurrencies. What news may have an impact on cryptocurrencies this year?
Due to the unpredictability of "black swan events", they are not within the scope of this article.
BloombergBloombergAlexandra Wijmenga-Daniel, spokesperson of the International Financial Action Task Force FATF, said that on June 21, the agency will release a report clarifying how participating countries should regulate virtual assets. The new rules will apply to businesses that use tokens and cryptocurrencies, such as exchanges, custodians and crypto hedge funds.
Eric Turner, director of research at Messari Inc., an encryption research firm, believes: "FATF's recommendations may have a much greater impact than the US SEC or any other regulatory agency has had to date."
Secondly, the Internet social media giant Facebook has entered the field of cryptocurrency and will release the stable currency GlobalCoin on June 18, which will be anchored to the legal currency of many countries.
It is important to note that Facebook’s “issuing currency” this time is not just for internal settlement, but to combine this stable currency with its advertising business for users’ creation, sharing and other behaviors; at the same time, users also This stable currency can be used for shopping, payment, credit card repayment, salary payment and other behaviors. Currently, Visa, Mastercard, PayPal, and Uber have all expressed their support for the stablecoin released by Facebook.
It is still unknown whether Facebook’s currency issuance will prompt other traditional companies to enter the cryptocurrency market, thereby driving the wave of currency issuance. For the industry, with the inflow of new funds and the rise of attention, the price of cryptocurrencies will also rise. "Given Facebook's large number of users and huge market influence, ordinary people's understanding of encrypted digital currency will be further deepened, which is a long-term major benefit to the digital currency market." Li Lianxuan told Odaily.
But there are also some economists who are not optimistic about Facebook’s currency issuance. Economist Peter Schiff believes that Facebook’s Globalcoin is bad news for Bitcoin.
On June 14, Peter Schiff tweeted that Facebook's cryptocurrency project "Libra" (Globalcoin) is bad news for Bitcoin. Facebook will target the growth market that bitcoin relies on, the unbanked in countries with high inflation. Libra (Globalcoin) will be stable, more convenient and less expensive to use as a medium of exchange than Bitcoin. But the truth is that Schiff's assumption that Globalcoin is more popular than Bitcoin in all cases is biased and probably wrong. In fact, some believe the new cryptocurrency is not a direct competitor to bitcoin.
Furthermore, the BTC futures trading platform developed by ICE, the parent company of the New York Stock ExchangeBakktUser testing of BTC futures, which will be listed and traded on ICE Futures US and settled on ICE Clear US, is planned for July 22. It is worth noting that the exchange has already obtained a license from the New York Financial Supervisory Authority, and the exchange will be launched soon after passing the test.
Li Lianxuan believes that Bakkt, as a digital asset trading platform led by ICE (Intercontinental Exchange), has always attracted market attention, and its products also have stricter standards in terms of compliance and security. Money from traditional institutions could come in big.”
On December 11 and 18, 2017, the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) followed the Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE) and launched Bitcoin futures contracts. At the end of the year, Bitcoin reached an all-time high of $20,000.
Finally, the SEC may make a bitcoin ETF (exchange-traded fund) decision this fall. At present, Vaneck & Solidx and VanEck's Bitcoin ETF have not yet been approved, and they are widely optimistic in the industry.
On June 14, VanEck's digital asset strategist Gabor Gurbacs said in an interview that the US SEC's final decision on the Bitcoin ETF may be set in the "mid-autumn period", and VanEck needs to be given the necessary time to resolve any outstanding issues that regulators may encounter The problem. Gurbacs has been tight-lipped about the actual chances of an ETF being approved, saying: “It’s like a multi-billion-dollar issue or more, a bitcoin ETF is a trading vehicle. I think approving a bitcoin ETF is in the public interest Yes, there are liquidity, custody, regulatory, and tax benefits, so I think it’s in the regulator’s best interest to approve a bitcoin ETF.”
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How is the market outlook
Regarding future market operations, Shao Yuqi's suggestion is to continue to hold. "Continue to hold long orders without stop profit. Again, the trend formation will not end easily."
"I don't make judgments in the short term, and it will definitely rise in the long term. The next resistance level (BTC) is 10,000-11,000 (US dollars)." Li Zhe said.
Li Lianxuan believes that from the current development trend, there is a high probability of breaking through the $10,000 mark this year, but the time is uncertain.
Many analysts also gave their views on the support and pressure levels of the BTC market outlook.
Li Lianxuan gave the answer from a technical perspective. He believes that the daily resistance of BTC is at $9,300.
cryptocurrency analyst
cryptocurrency analystAlex KrügerIt is believed that the support level of BTC in the short term is 9,000 US dollars, while the resistance level can reach up to 20,000 US dollars. "After breaking through $9,000, BTC's next resistance levels are 9600, 10000, 11500-11750, 13000, 15000, 17400, 20000; BTC's support levels are 9000, 8800, 8500, 8100-8000, 7600 -7400, 7200, 6800, 6400."
Recently, cryptocurrency enthusiast Kevin Rooke tweeted aCoinMetrics.ioData Analysis Diagram. The information in the figure shows that on June 14, the number of Bitcoin daily active addresses exceeded 1 million, which is the first time that this indicator has exceeded this standard since 2019.Kevin Rooke further explained that: when Bitcoin broke through 1 million active addresses for the first time (November 27, 2017), the price of Bitcoin was $9,352, and the median transaction fee was $3.23; on June 14, the price of Bitcoin was $8,230, with a median transaction fee of $1.33. This also means that BTC still has a strong upside.
The prediction of BTC price has always been an enduring topic.
recentStock-to-FlowRatio chart analysis, Bitcoin price may reach $60,000 as of August 2020. This price prediction is also related to the halving of Bitcoin's block reward in May 2020-the halving will reduce the number of bitcoins produced by a single block, thereby pushing up the price of that BTC.
The Stock-to-Flow (S2F) ratio model refers to the amount of available assets or reserve assets divided by the amount produced each year. The Stock-to-Flow ratio is an important metric because a higher metric value in S2F reflects a lower incidence of annual inflation for an asset. Gold is one of the assets with the highest Stock-to-Flow ratio, and its scarce value makes it the first choice of global investors.
According to the chart, it can be observed that the Bitcoin S2F index after halving is expected to be 55.92, which would make its intrinsic value very close to gold.
In addition, the well-known analyst PlanB also recently predicted that Bitcoin may exceed the market value of 1 trillion US dollars in 2028. This prediction is also based on the Stock-to-Flow ratio model.
