Humans always want to predict the future, which made Kevin Kelly famous.
His book "Out of Control" was written in 1994, but it predicted hot concepts many years later, such as cloud computing, Internet of Things, virtual reality, collaboration, symbiosis, online community, network economy, etc. This prophetic work allowed Kevin Kelly to gain many fans in China, where technology is developing rapidly.
On May 27, a high-end dialogue themed on "Blockchain - the cornerstone of digital civilization" was held at the Guiyang International Ecological Conference Center. As one of the highlights of the Expo, the block chain sector is sponsored by the Organizing Committee of China International Big Data Expo, co-sponsored by China Central Radio and Television's Financial Channel, undertaken by China Academy of Information and Communications Technology, co-organized by Thiel Infor, and exclusive media by Odaily reports.
Kevin Kelly, author of the best-selling books "Out of Control" and "Inevitable", and former editor-in-chief of "Wired Magazine" was invited to attend this high-end blockchain dialogue. Before the meeting, Odaily made an exclusive interview with Kevin Kelly.
Asked about the most concerned issues in the near future, Kevin Kelly expressed his concerns about the outbreak of cyber wars in the future. "Cyber conflicts are difficult to verify, opaque, and humans have not reached a consensus on the boundaries of their behavior." This may cause very serious consequences. He believes that the human world should work together to develop a consensus for the online world to prevent it from happening.
what's next Predicting the future has become what people expect from Kevin Kelly. He said he sees the next-generation platform after the smartphone as a mirror world.
When it comes to the blockchain, his attitude is slightly conservative: "The blockchain is overheated, and the changes brought about by this technology are not revolutionary (revolutionary), but incremental (evolutionary)."
Finally, he gave a piece of advice to Chinese technology practitioners: play with technology instead of making money with technology, so that you can know what technology wants.
secondary title
Consensus should be developed for network behavior
Odaily: Hello, Mr. Kevin Kelly, you have unique insights on technology, the relationship between humans and machines. In recent years, what areas or issues have you been most concerned about?
Kevin Kelly: I think it's cyberwar, cyber conflict, between countries, between hackers, between anyone.
Such conflicts are difficult to verify (verify, understood here as the outside world can enter and check to know whether someone is telling the truth), and it is also difficult to become transparent; at the same time, there is no global consensus on this-about what kind of What is acceptable, what kind of things should not be accepted, we don't know what the country should do and what should not be done.
For example, a country destroys another country's banking system, or a large-scale attack on the power system. Are these acceptable? There is no consensus among countries.
That means, we don't have rules in place, which could have very serious consequences.
Odaily: So do you think there is any danger mentioned at present?
Kevin Kelly: No. Today there are information leaks, financial losses, etc., but no one has died because of it. Today's events are minor by comparison.
In order to avoid such things from happening, the whole world, the United States, China, Russia and other countries should work together to formulate rules, how to verify, and what things are acceptable.
secondary title
The monopoly of the technology industry will not last, and new giants will be born in the field of AR
Odaily: The gradual maturity of the technology industry has created many industry giants. We can observe that more and more data is in the hands of large companies, creating a certain degree of monopoly. Are you concerned that it will have negative repercussions?
Kevin Kelly: I'm not worried. These monopolies are very short-lived. New dominant players will emerge in artificial intelligence, mirror world and other technologies. Big corporations think they will have a monopoly for the next era, but history tells us otherwise.
Odaily: Over the past few years, the number of technology companies listed on the market has gradually decreased. Some people think that the Internet or the technology industry will enter the middle age and its development speed will slow down. What do you think of this view?
Kevin Kelly: People who say that are blind. They don't see the latest technological revolution that's happening. After the emergence of Microsoft, there were similar remarks, saying that the development of the technology industry had slowed down. But the Internet has since had new players.
Odaily: In which field do you think giants will appear in the future?
Kevin Kelly: The spatial web, the AR cloud, the mirror world—this new field has a lot of different names, and I call it the mirror world.
In the future, you can use digital devices to see the real world, which is different from the virtual world. It is an accurate reproduction of the real world, but you see it through the lenses of glasses.
In the future, glasses will be an important device to present the world, and it may be connected to your mobile phone, which is the next-generation platform device after the smartphone.
Odaily: It seems that related technologies are still waiting for a breakthrough?
secondary title
Privacy is a concern, but technology will fix it
Odaily: If such a world comes, it is foreseeable that related devices will collect more personal and private user information. Today, many users believe that technology companies have too much user data and have violated user privacy. Some people think this is the original sin of the Internet, what do you think?
Kevin Kelly: Privacy is really a big issue. However, I believe there will be technical solutions in the future. For example, Google already has a technology called Federated Learning, and a similar technology is called Differential Privacy (DP).
Through similar technologies, companies such as Google and Apple can use (aggergate) our data, but do not need to get the data, and the relevant calculations are all done on the local device, so that privacy can be well guaranteed.
To sum up, what I want to say is that we will not track less user behavior, but track more, but there will be technology in the future to reduce harm.
Odaily: You once proposed the trend of human engineering and biological life, as well as the view of symbiosis between human and machine. Human beings are now undoubtedly inseparable from machines. More than 20 years have passed. Now, what do you think will be the new changes in the relationship between people and machines, and between people in the future?
Kevin Kelly: In recent years, biotechnology has developed rapidly. Human beings use technology to repair or make up for their original deficiencies, such as vision and heart. Humans use technology to make themselves more and more "mechanical" . Neural network technology is advancing at the same time.
Generally speaking, there will be continuous integration between humans and machines in the future, and this trend will continue.
Odaily: Some people worry that people's over-reliance on technology will bring danger. What do you think of this point of view?
secondary title
Blockchain change is not revolutionary, it is incremental
Odaily: The forum you participated in today is about blockchain. Blockchain is regarded by many people as a tool for changing production relations and collaboration methods. What do you think of such a technology?
Kevin Kelly: I think the blockchain is overhyped. If you take away the virtual currency, a lot of people are not interested.
In addition, the blockchain is actually very boring. Like water plumping, we need plumbing, it's an infrastructure. However, what most people come into contact with the most is that the water can come as soon as you turn on the tap, and not many people pay attention to the water pipes behind them.
It's a great tool, but it won't necessarily change the world.
Finally, the blockchain has not yet had an impact on real life, and many of its functions are still theoretical. It looks powerful, but we don't yet know where it will make a beneficial difference.
I think the changes brought about by the blockchain are not revolutionary (revolutionary), but incremental (evolutionary).
Odaily: Are you involved in the development of the blockchain industry? Such as investing in any blockchain business or cryptocurrency.
secondary title
Play with technology, don't try to make money with it
Odaily: What trends do you think are worth noting next?
Kevin Kelly: Going back to what I mentioned above, I predict that the next-generation platform after the smartphone will be the mirror world and the augmented reality cloud.
Odaily: Since you have "foreseen the future" to some extent many times, many readers also hope to obtain this unique vision. How do you keep yourself tech-sensitized? What advice do you have for practitioners in the technology industry?
Kevin Kelly: I would suggest that they play with technology and waste time with technology instead of thinking about how to make money at first. As long as you play with technology, you will find out what technology wants. If you want to make money in the first place, it is immature.
Odaily: You once mentioned that technology is alive and has things you want. It can be summarized, what is the commonality of what it wants?
Kevin Kelly: I spent a lot of space in my book on this, and it is actually hard to make it clear in just a few sentences. In general, though, what technology wants is actually very similar to what humans want. It wants to explore and become more diverse.
