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Since the beginning of April 2019, BSV has experienced major events such as being delisted by Binance, deep reorganization of the blockchain, suspected price manipulation and other major events, and the price fluctuations in the secondary market are relatively severe. This topic will briefly review the three recent important events of BSV, and analyze its technical prospects and investment value.
Summary
Summary
Topic: The BSV expansion plan is quite difficult to implement. Satoshi Aomoto’s repeated attempts to prove Satoshi Nakamoto’s identity have aroused resentment from the encryption token community. The market value of BSV is relatively overestimated, and the long-term investment value is low. In April 2019, Satoshi Aomoto was opposed by the community because he published a human flesh search threat against BTC enthusiast Hodlonaut on Twitter, which caused BSV to be delisted by Binance and several other small exchanges, and lost some liquidity. Prices also fell 25% in the 24 hours following the April 15 delisting announcement. BSV then released an upgrade route on April 16, saying that BSV will remove restrictions on transaction scripts and transaction volumes, and even allow miners to freely determine the block size without setting a block capacity limit. However, limited by network conditions and other factors, the capacity of a single block cannot be too large. On the evening of April 18th, BSV experienced a major failure of deep block reorganization during a "stress test". There are various indications that BSV's technical level and activity on the chain are not enough to support its market value. In the long run, there are certain risks, and investors should invest cautiously.
Market: BTC consolidated at a high level and continued to maintain its strength. The total market value of digital tokens this week was US$249.17 billion, an increase of US$17.3 billion or 7.4% compared to last week; the average daily trading volume was US$78.61 billion, a decrease of 20.4% from last week; the average daily turnover rate was 32.0%, Shrinkage consolidation. The current price of BTC is $7987, with a weekly increase of 8.8% and a monthly increase of 46.2%; the current price of ETH is $249.5, with a weekly increase of 2.3% and a monthly increase of 50.4%. The BTC balance on the exchange this week was 753,000, a decrease of 2,899 from last week. The balance of ETH on the exchange was 8.563 million, an increase of 609,000, and the selling pressure of ETH increased slightly.
Risk warning: market volatility risk
Risk warning: market volatility risk
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Since April 2019, BSV has experienced major events such as being delisted by Binance, deep reorganization of the blockchain, and suspected price manipulation. This topic will briefly review the recent important events of BSV, and analyze its technical prospects and investment value.
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1. Topic: Internet violence, blind capacity expansion, false copyright: "Three Deadly Sins" of Satoshi Ao Bencong
BSV is a token that was forked from the BCH chain in November 2018. The differences between BSV, BTC and BCH include: the goal of the BTC community is to maintain its functions of value storage and payment means, and it is positioned as the "digital gold" in the blockchain world. The BTC community insists on the quality of the code and does not add unnecessary functions The main chain is not expanded, and the BTC payment experience is optimized through the lightning network, and some extended applications are realized through the side chain. BCH hopes to expand and optimize performance through the main chain block, optimize the payment experience by implementing technical solutions such as zero confirmation and pre-consensus, and realize its goal of becoming the underlying platform of the application by adding new operation codes. The goal of BSV is similar to that of BCH, but the BSV community has a more aggressive attitude towards capacity expansion, hoping to lift various restrictions on block size and operation codes in the BTC code.
1.1 Condemn Hodlonaut for causing trouble and being removed from several exchanges
Cong Ao Ben likes to show his face in public. In the computing power battle with the BCH community in 2018, Ao Bencong frequently used social media to make exaggerated remarks and attacked the BCH team. He also claimed to be the real Satoshi Nakamoto, but was never able to prove his identity with a signature signed by the private key of the BTC genesis block. Hodlonaut, the initiator of the "Lightning Torch" movement, also questioned Satoshi Auburn's true identity on Twitter in early April this year and ridiculed him, which angered Satoshi Aomoto. With the help of fans, Ao Bencong launched a human flesh search on Hodlonaut, and said he would send a lawyer's letter to Hodlonaut.
Satoshi Aoben's actions aroused resentment and condemnation from the encryption token community. On April 12, a massive #WeAreAllHodlonaut campaign was launched on Twitter to support the organizer of the Lightning Torch Movement and protect him from attacks by Satoshi fans. that day. Changpeng Zhao also tweeted that Satoshi Omoto is not Satoshi Nakamoto, and if he continues to mess around, Binance will delist BSV. On April 15, Binance announced that it would delist all trading pairs of BSV. On that day, BSV fell from $72 to $54, a drop of up to 25%. Some small exchanges also followed Binance to delist BSV, but as of May 24, other well-known exchanges such as OKEX and Huobi have not delisted BSV.
1.2 The "Great Leap Forward" expansion competition led to deep reorganization of blocks
Perhaps it was Satoshi Auburn's struggle against Binance. The day after Binance announced the delisting of BSV, BSV officially released its upgrade plan called "Quasar". The "quasar" plan has greatly advanced the expansion route of BSV. The upgrade roadmap shows that BSV will directly increase the upper limit of block capacity to 2G on July 24, 2019, accompanied by technical upgrades such as parallel transaction verification, and customer End performance optimization and improvement.
In addition, BSV will undergo an upgrade called "Genesis" on February 4, 2020, which will involve a series of protocol adjustments and return the protocol layer to the original version of Satoshi Nakamoto's BTC. At the same time, BSV will also remove restrictions on transaction scripts and transaction volumes, and even allow miners to freely determine the block size without setting a block size limit.
Due to the idea of decentralization and consensus fault tolerance, BTC has restrictions on block time and block size. The average TPS of BTC is only about 6-7, which means that BTC can only process 6-7 transactions per second on average. Since the block time is about 10 minutes, and it takes 3-6 blocks to confirm the transaction, a transaction Usually need to wait more than 30 minutes to be processed. The transaction processing capability of BTC is not enough to support high-concurrency applications, which is why BCH is determined to break with the BTC community and develop a main chain expansion solution.
Block expansion, also known as block expansion, is the expansion method adopted by BCH and BSV. In 2017, the BCH block size was increased to 8MB, and in May 2018 it was raised again to 32MB. In theory, when the average block time is fixed, the network TPS is proportional to the block size. The block size of BTC is only 1MB, which can only store thousands of transactions, and the size of 1MB was determined by Satoshi Nakamoto considering various factors such as computer performance, storage space, and network speed at that time. Satoshi Nakamoto hoped that The block capacity should not be too large, so that more ordinary users can participate in mining and bookkeeping. The size of the block cannot be expanded indefinitely. Due to the limitation of network conditions and node storage capacity, if a single block is too large, the processing speed of packaging, broadcasting, verification and other links will be affected. If some nodes do not synchronize the latest block within 10 minutes, and the state between nodes cannot be synchronized in time, then there will be a risk of forking in the network.
On the evening of April 18, 2019, during a "stress test" of BSV, a similar scene took place. BSV supporters are eager to dig out large-capacity blocks on the main network, and use special tools to send a large number of transactions to the main network, but each node is not technically prepared, resulting in failures when nodes synchronize large blocks, resulting in Network forks. From 21:00 to 22:00, the deep reorganization of 6 blocks occurred at the block height of BSV main network from 578640 to 578645.
Block reorganization means that the latest blocks that have been written into the blockchain history are replaced by other blocks for specific reasons and no longer become part of the longest chain. In this incident, the network was temporarily bifurcated because the status of each node was not synchronized, and there may be multiple forked chains at the end of the blockchain competing for the position of the longest chain at the same time. The reorganization of 6 blocks has already caused more serious consequences, which means that the last 6 blocks have been replaced by a new longer chain. The block reorganization has caused: 1. BSV transfers cannot be carried out normally; 2. Some BSV blockchain browsers cannot be accessed normally; 3. The mining pool that dug the replaced block lost mining revenue; 4. Exchanges such as Huobi suspended the deposit and withdrawal of BSV.
Blockchain reorganization may also cause confirmed transactions to become unconfirmed again. This is because the block in the new longest chain may not include the transaction, and if this happens, the transaction is said to have been rolled back. Fortunately, there was no transaction rollback in BSV's reorganization, so it did not cause very serious consequences.
1.3 Register the copyright of the BTC white paper, and the US Copyright Office came forward to refute the rumors
On May 21, Coingeek reported that Satoshi Aomoto registered the copyright of the Bitcoin white paper and the first version of the code with the U.S. Copyright Office, and claimed that Satoshi Nakamoto was his pseudonym. Naturally, the blockchain community will not buy it. People criticize Satoshi Aomoto for "it is very stupid to spend $35 to register the copyright instead of using the creation block signature to prove that he is Satoshi Nakamoto", "to obtain the copyright of the BTC white paper from the Copyright Office The identity of the system violates the spirit of decentralization."
The expansion concept of BSV is relatively radical, and it is difficult to implement considering factors such as the current computer storage space and network conditions. The market price of BSV has fluctuated greatly recently, and its liquidity has decreased significantly after being delisted by Binance, making it more vulnerable to artificial price manipulation. Coingeek is one of the supporters of BSV. This time, it first released the news of Satoshi Aomoto's application for copyright, which caused BSV to rise by up to 200%. It is inevitable that people suspect that Satoshi Aomoto is suspected of manipulating the market. BSV currently ranks 12th in market value, but its technical level and activity on the chain are not enough to support its market value. In the long run, there are certain risks, and investors should invest cautiously.
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2. Market: BTC is consolidating at a high level and continues to maintain its strength
2.1 The overall market: BNB has reached a new high, which may indicate that the bull market will continue
The total market value of digital tokens this week was US$249.17 billion, an increase of US$17.3 billion or 7.4% compared to last week. After hitting a new high of $8,340, BTC was sniped by short-sellers of futures in the external market. It once fell by $7,000, but then rebounded strongly to above $7,800, maintaining a high and volatile trend. Among other mainstream tokens, only LTC and platform tokens BNB and HT performed better than BTC. BNB broke through $34 and continued to hit a record high. Judging from indicators such as exchange traffic, trading volume, and USDT premium rate, incremental funds are still continuing Influx into the market, the situation of the long-term bull market will not change.
The average daily trading volume of the digital token market was 78.61 billion US dollars, a decrease of 20.4% from last week, and the average daily turnover rate was 32.0%, a decrease of 10.3% from last week. The volume was reduced and the market activity was higher than that of last month promote. The proportion of BTC's market value increased from 56.1% to 56.8%, indicating that funds began to flow to BTC again.
The BTC balance on the exchange this week was 753,000, a decrease of 2,899 from last week. The balance of ETH on the exchange was 8.563 million, an increase of 609,000. ETH's recent gains have been relatively large, and the selling pressure on the market has also increased.
The USDT market cap is $3.04 billion, an increase of $210 million from last week. USDT was at $1.003, up 0.4%. On the 23rd and 24th, USDT issued a large increase of 100 million US dollars, and the total market value hit a new high. At the same time, the price of USDT to USD also stood above 1.0 again, indicating that incremental funds are continuously pouring into the market.
2.2 Core tokens: BTC is consolidating at a high level, mainstream tokens are ready to go
The current price of BTC is $7,987, with a weekly increase of 8.8% and a monthly increase of 46.2%. This week, the average daily trading volume of BTC was 24.5 billion US dollars, and the average daily turnover rate was 17.6%. BTC maintains a high level of volatility, and the turnover rate has dropped slightly compared to last week. On the disk, the trend is relatively strong, and the probability of upward shock after the consolidation is over is relatively high.
The current price of ETH is 249.5 US dollars, with a weekly increase of 2.3% and a monthly increase of 50.4%. This week, the average daily trading volume of ETH was 10.83 billion US dollars, and the average daily turnover rate was 40.9%. ETH has performed slightly better than BTC in the past month, but BTC has returned to strength recently, and ETH has lagged behind in the past week.
The current price of EOS is $6.40, with a weekly increase of 6.3% and a monthly increase of 33.3%. This week, the average daily trading volume of EOS was 2.44 billion US dollars, and the average daily turnover rate was 43.2%. The performance of EOS has been weak recently, but in the long run, the application value of EOS will support its price to continue to rise.
The current price of XRP is $0.385, with a weekly decrease of 0.4% and a monthly increase of 27.2%. The average daily trading volume of XRP this week was $2.03 billion, with an average daily turnover rate of 12.3%. XRP is not strongly correlated with the broader market, and overall it is significantly weaker than other mainstream tokens. The market value of XRP is relatively high, and the application scenarios are narrow, so there is not much room for imagination.
The monthly volatility of major tokens has slowly climbed this week. The monthly volatility of BTC is 24.5%, an increase of 3.3% from last week; the monthly volatility of ETH is 28.5%, an increase of 2.4% from last week. The mainstream tokens came out of the second wave of main rise in early May, the market activity increased, and the price fluctuations were more violent.
2.3 Market view: June will not be the only month for BTC
BTC has set new highs for the year in a row and has surpassed the $8,000 mark three times. It has been 12 days since BTC hit the previous high of $8,343. Since the beginning of April, the longest time for BTC to break through the previous high is 12 days. Recently, BTC has shrunk and consolidated at high levels, and the amplitude has been narrowing. The market is approaching to choose a direction moment. BTC may choose to break through or pull back after stepping back on the lower trend line of the triangle arrangement next time.
The market in June will not lead the rise alone like BTC in April. In addition to the concept of platform tokens, LTC's production reduction expectations may also become the focus of investors. LTC will halve block rewards at the end of August this year. According to historical market speculation, LTC's production reduction market is likely to come 2 to 3 months in advance. Under the leadership of these mainstream tokens, June may be a "hundred flowers blooming" market.
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3. Output and popularity: the computing power remains stable, and the public attention is relatively high
According to Google Trends statistics this week, the search popularity of the term Bitcoin is 14, which is a drop from last week, but still maintains a relatively high popularity; the search popularity of the term Ethereum is 10. The huge increase in digital tokens has drawn public attention to it.
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4. Industry news: Ethereum will spend a lot of money to support the 2.0 upgrade
4.1 The Ethereum Foundation will spend $19 million to fund the upgrade of Ethereum 2.0
The Ethereum Foundation on Tuesday detailed that the organization will spend $19 million on ETH2.0, a key project within the ethereum ecosystem, including "layer two" scaling projects such as Plasma, and other research and development projects, Coindesk reported. . An additional $8 million will be spent over the next 12 months on initiatives such as Ethereum 1x to support the current Ethereum mainnet. The final $3 million is earmarked for developer education and onboarding, organizing Devcon, the annual ethereum conference, and supporting “Ethereum regional community organizations,” among other things.
4.2 Satoshi Omoto claimed to be the author of the BTC white paper, and BSV skyrocketed by 200%
According to Coingeek report: "Ao Ben Satoshi has obtained the original BTC white paper and most of the original BTC code (version 0.1) of the U.S. copyright registration. The registration document issued by the U.S. Copyright Office recognizes Ao Ben Cong as the author of the white paper and code." Inquiry, Ao Bencong just submitted a registration application to the US Copyright Office to support his statement on the authorship of the original BTC code and white paper. At the same time, Coindesk stated that it needs to be explained that registration does not imply ownership, nor is this a formal patent. The U.S. Copyright Office stated that registering a copyright does not mean agreeing that Satoshi Aomoto is the author of the BTC white paper.
4.3 Bitfinex officially announced the launch of the IEO platform Tokinex, and will announce the first project on May 23
Bitfinex announced that it will jointly launch a new IEO platform Tokinex with Ethfinex, and will announce the first project on May 23, and the first project activities will be held publicly on June 13, 2019. USDT/BTC/ETH held by users on Bitfinex or Ethfinex can be directly used for project subscription.
4.4 Changpeng Zhao countersued Red Shirt Capital, claiming to have advanced legal fees of US$779,000
