Produced | Odaily (ID: o-daily)
Produced | Odaily (ID: o-daily)
In the past week, XRP (Ripple's token, the Chinese name is Ruibocoin) has risen by about 57%, ranking first among the top five mainstream currencies.
On May 14th, the day when Bitcoin broke through $8,200, XRP became the absolute protagonist by virtue of its violent rise, leading the 100 coins. Starting from 8:00 am on the 14th, XRP continued to strengthen, breaking through three high points one after another, achieving a 37% increase within 1 day. It became the top 100 currencies with the highest increase on the 14th.
The sudden skyrocketing of XRP has surprised many blockchain investors, but all of this is not surprising in the eyes of XRP investors.
"The price of XRP is still a product of the currency circle. The price of XRP follows the balance of supply and demand, and it is not out of the control of the currency king (Bitcoin)." Ricky Liu, the manager of knowledge Odaily "Ripple Star", told Odaily.
In the face of its past experience, this wave of XRP's rise may be just a small wave. Before this round of surge, XRP experienced five surges.
The first big rise occurred two years ago on April 29, 2017. This market has lasted for 20 days, making Ripple, a currency that has been continuously issued (depreciated), increased by a full 11 times.
The subsequent rounds of rises have also increased by close to 1 times or even dozens of times.
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Ripple "Unique Show"
On the morning of May 14, bitcoin caught the world's attention. Overnight, Bitcoin started to climb from $7,000, broke through the $8,000 resistance level, and continued to achieve a 13% gain on the year's high.
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(7-day price trend of XRP, picture from Coinmarketcap)
Starting from 8:00 on the 14th, XRP continued to strengthen, breaking through three high points one after another, achieving an increase of 37% within 1 day. It became the top 100 currencies with the highest increase on the 14th.
"Rippo, the doomsday chariot, has started again." On the night of the 14th, a cryptocurrency investor Chen Qingxing (pseudonym) marveled in the community that Ripple had grabbed the "leadership" of Bitcoin.
"Either Ripple doesn't open, or it will be Optimus Prime." In an EOS investor group, Chen Qingxing said. But a week ago, when Bitcoin crossed the threshold of breaking through 6,000 US dollars, in this group, "Ripple is still 2 yuan, why is it so stable", "Stud (what) is not good, I want to touch Ripple", "full position of Ripple , The bull market is empty" and other voices are still ringing in my ears.
"Ripple is too difficult." Chen Qingxing said that before this round of sharp rise, Ripple had been "sideways" for 5 months. He posted a screenshot of XRP rising by more than 30% in his circle of friends, feeling relieved.
"Playing Ripple requires patience," Chen Qingxing added. He still remembers that one day last year, Ripple "raised 100% in one day and doubled 5 times in a week", and the experience he drew from this was to "cultivate patience".
Ricky Liu started hoarding XRP in 2018, "I think XRP will be a good project, and I will definitely vote."
This round of surge did not arouse Ricky too much emotion. In his opinion, XRP will have greater value in the future.
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Institutional increase
Of course, there is no lack of calm analysis in the market.
Ricky Liu has been researching and investing in Ripple since 2017. In Ricky's view, the price of XRP mainly follows the balance of supply and demand, and the "big heads" of supply and demand are Ripple's major customers.
From this, we can see the rebound signal from the market behavior of these institutions in the past quarter.
According to the 2019 Q1 market report released by Ripple, according to the plan, it plans to release 3 billion tokens in the first quarter (1 billion per month), and a total of 700 million tokens will be sold and used by projects, and the total sales will increase compared with the previous quarter Total institutional sales of XRP increased by 31% compared to the previous quarter.
Both retail and institutional sales have reached the second highest since Ripple’s sales record, which shows that institutions have not lost interest in XRP due to the trough in the currency market. In the speculative retail market, XRP's popularity has also increased.
In addition, looking at the long-term view, XRP players may have begun to lay the foundation for this rise earlier.
Let’s start with the mechanism of XRP. The lock-up plan formulated at the beginning is to release 1 billion tokens every month, and a total of 55 billion tokens will be released in 55 months. When it is released but not used and sold The remaining tokens will be cyclically locked.
There are two main sales channels for XRP: institutional/wholesale sales and retail/retail sales. Retail sales are mainly through exchanges, while institutional sales are mainly to banks, remittance processors, exchanges, and large investors.
“These XRP offerings to institutions are often heavily involved and can be used as a barometer of utility demand and speculative demand, because it essentially indicates a demand change in the market structure.” Ricky Liu said.
Unlike Ricky Liu, analyst Zheng Di believes that Ripple’s surge is caused by the proliferation of liquidity after Bitcoin’s stagflation.
Since Bitcoin broke through $8,000 recently, it has been fluctuating around this area.
Zheng Di judged that the rise in currency prices this time was mainly driven by off-market funds. Now that the price of Bitcoin has risen, the funds chasing the rise have entered the wait-and-see stage. Relatively speaking, the market of other altcoins has not yet followed up. For an affordable option.
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(XRP's 3-month price trend, picture from Coinmarketcap)
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A generation of "monster coins"
In the opinion of many people in the industry, XRP has exuded "monstrous aura" since its birth.
XRP was issued in March 2013, and began trading in April of the following year. The total number of issuances is 100 billion, and the issuance price is 0.0000007 yuan.
The price of XRP once exceeded 23 yuan on January 8 last year, which was more than 30 million times higher than the issue price.
A widely circulated saying in the cryptocurrency circle is that if you bought XRP with 1 yuan in 2014, you are now a multi-millionaire. This is a myth comparable to Bitcoin's sudden wealth.
2013 was the year of XRP's "big coin".
According to public information, on February 9th of that year, the Ripple team sent coins to users on bitcointalk, and on May 9th, 2,000 Ripple coins were given to the official old users of Ripple coins.
In October 2013, XRP was jointly launched on Sina Weibo. As long as the user has a Sina Weibo account and the registration time of Weibo is before October 1, 2013, he can get 888 XRP for free (according to the current market price , equivalent to RMB 40). 888 XRP is now equivalent to about 3,000 RMB.
Today, the sudden rise of XRP caught people off guard. The old coin Min Jinzheng lamented, "XRP has been going up and down for half a year, and it has been going up for a year."
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Will Ripple still rise?
Before this surge, Ripple had also experienced five surges.
The first surge occurred two years ago, that is, on April 29, 2017. This market has lasted for 20 days, making Ripple, a currency that has been continuously issued (depreciated), increased by a full 11 times. This "big victory" can be seen as rising with the broader market, including several subsequent rises can also be attributed to this.
But last September's surge was different. When other mainstream virtual currencies fell into sideways or plummeted, XRP rose against the wind. In just 10 days from September 13 to September 23, XRP rose from 1.84 yuan to 3.87 yuan.
"XRP has a strong position. From the currency king to more than 6,000 (US dollars), XRP is still suppressed below 0.30 (US dollars). It can be seen that there is no bad news during this period, and everything is good." Rikcy said that in recent months There are many new customers such as HSBC affiliates who are interested in Ripple net.
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(Image source: Peter brandt Twitter)
"Zhuang is suppressing the price of the currency, keeping it at a low level for a long time, approaching the bottom and then increasing the volume, (XRP has been) unable to fall below 0.28 (USD), hovering between 0.28 (USD) and 0.30 (USD) for so long." Ricky said , XRP/BTC rose rapidly after approaching 0.00004030, and the signs of market makers are very obvious.
Regardless of whether there is a dealer or not, Ricky is still optimistic about the long-term value of XRP, "I am a pragmatist, I am not a Bitcoin believer, and I have never been."
Ricky may represent a characteristic of XRP investors: pragmatism.
Regarding whether the JPM Coin issued by JPMorgan Chase in February this year is a threat to Ripple, he responded: "First of all, JPM and XRP have different purposes. JPM is still a 1: 1 USD stable currency for self-use business transfers, and XRP is a bridge currency. Business targeting is different. Basically, JPM is JPM’s partner to digitize legal currency. In fact, this should not be the first time a big bank has tried to create digital assets. Mitsubishi Bank and HSBC have tried before.”
As of press time, XRP is still at a relatively high level of $0.45. Can you make investment judgments with reference to the above Ripple fundamental analysis?
"Do you really think that the currency circle has fundamentals?" Investor Bingmao told Odaily, "The fundamentals are deceiving, and A-shares have no fundamentals."
(Authors Dave and Xue Jiao, you can add WeChat davesilly and hxjiapg for blockchain reporting/communication, please note your position and reason)
