"Those who have smooth sailing think that sailing is nothing more than that, but countless sailors are buried on the hidden reefs that you can't see, and they have no chance to tell their experiences."
There is a classic stalk in "Game of Thrones", that is, you never know which one you thought would be the protagonist who persisted until the end, and suddenly received a box lunch.
For those who have seen the end from beginning to end, we know that these people who are still "alive" in the last season, survived from the previous stories, they may be lucky, maybe... lucky, anyway they survived, yes The few who survived to the end.
But for those who only watched this season, they are the protagonists of this drama. It seems that this drama has not "died". They have lived smoothly and peacefully until now. They have always been the protagonists, glamorous .
And this is the familiar "survivor bias".
In life, at work, and in the currency circle, it is too easy to have survivor bias.
Because you heard that a person made money in a certain business, you would intuitively think that this business is very profitable; When you hear that a friend has succeeded in starting a business, you will feel that it is boring to start a business and go to work.
The "survivor bias" is more obvious in the currency circle with extreme market conditions and extremely fast circle changes. When you enter the coin circle in a bull market, you feel that everyone in the coin circle is making money. Those who entered the coin circle in 2013 are simply "too fucking lucky", and people shout "If I let Seeing a few hundred pieces of Ethereum, it is absolutely stud."
In fact, the powerful companies you see now have survived from the last bull market to the previous bull market and are still alive and well. In fact, they are all lucky survivors. Let me give you some examples.
1. Survivors of mining machine manufacturers
From 2014 to 2015, Bitmain was so miserable that even though it was already the best mining machine on the market, it still couldn't sell a single one. When suppliers came to collect their debts, Wu Jihan could only tell them, "Can you slow down, or let us pay in installments?", because the mining machines that cannot be sold can only be sent to the mine by themselves, and then the bitcoins dug out Sold to pay off debts.
If it weren’t for the recovery of the market at the end of 2015 that saved Bitmain, I am afraid that as long as the cold winter is a little colder, and it is colder for another year, Bitmain will not be the “survivor” we saw.
While Bitmain survived, the leader in the same period was not so lucky: the roast cat disappeared, and KnCMiner declared bankruptcy:
Therefore, when you say that making mining machines is very profitable, please don’t only see Bitmain, but not those mining machine manufacturers that were once famous and have now disappeared except Bitmain.
(In fact, there were rumors that Bitmain could not survive this year before the market started, but now it is alive and well again, and I am still very emotional)
2. Media Survivors
If I ask you now, which media has experienced several rounds of bulls and bears, how many would you name?
Probably only the Babbitts can be named.
I went to Babbitt once in early 2018. At that time, when I was chatting with Changjia and some old friends, they said that in 2016, they really almost failed to survive. Financing was almost impossible. Several founders (Wu Jihan was also the founder, but Bitmain’s situation was not much better than that of Babbitt at that time) even began to sell coins and loans to pay wages.
Like Bitmain, Changjia also breathed a sigh of relief when talking about that period of time, "Fortunately, the market is back." And those who survived with Babbitt are really not many.
For example, I saw a post:
At that time, the "Bi Technology" that mocked Babbitt for not being able to survive, have you heard of it in the later bull market?
And at that time they were still able to mock Babbitt's existence.
So when many people see that the media is very profitable, and they see a newsletter of a certain finance and a certain world with a few ETHs, and they are very envious and even go to the media themselves. cannon fodder.
In 2018 and 2019, those media who only saw the survivors but not the cannon fodder also became new cannon fodder.
3. Exchange Survivors
There is no need to mention the exchanges before, just in such a good market in 2017, because of a 9.4, how many exchanges that were in full swing in those days disappeared.
Exchanges such as Bitcoin China, Yunbi, and Jubi are familiar to the old leeks, but almost no new leeks have been heard of, which shows the cruelty of the industry.
The Big Three you see today are not the Big Three of the past, and perhaps they will not be the Big Three of the future.
So every time a newcomer comes in, there is always a feeling that "the exchange keeps its income in drought and flood, and it's really making money", because he thinks that there are only the three major exchanges in the world, and there are no more than 17,000 exchanges behind. And those once glorious exchanges that have disappeared into history.
If more than 100 exchanges make money and more than 10,000 do not make money, do you still think that the exchange industry is a profitable industry?
But the existence of survivor bias makes people think that the exchange is a very profitable industry, isn't it?
4. Cryptocurrency Survivors
"I don't have the Ethereum based on buying hundreds of dollars"
"When I knew the EOS7 block, I studded"
"Who would have thought that BNB could reach more than 100 yuan, and more than a dozen yuan were sold."
......
In 2017, most people envied those who entered the market early in the bull market, or bought some coins in 2013 and 2014 that later increased by hundreds, thousands or even tens of thousands of times, and then complained that they did not enter this market earlier. market, a big opportunity was missed.
In fact, this is the biggest survivor bias. In order to prevent you from complaining like this now and in the future, I will give you a few questions and think about it carefully:
1. Ask yourself, let you buy Ethereum for 10 yuan, how much money can you get without selling it when Ethereum is generally not optimistic at the time?
2. In a large number of public chains at that time, how could you be sure that you could buy Ether, Quantum, and Ant, instead of those coins that had disappeared?
3. The exchange was stolen and closed down, and all bitcoin wealth management products were wiped out. Are you sure you can avoid them all?
4. If I told you that cross-chain is the future, which public chain/cross-chain currency would you buy?
Thinking through these questions, do you think you will be that survivor?
If you don't think you'll be that survivor, how about stop whining and envying and try to be a survivor of the next bull-bear transition?
The reason why people have "survivor bias" is actually very simple, because survivors attract all the attention, while others become cannon fodder - scattered on the ground or gone with the wind.
But there is good news for you: if you still hold a lot of good coins, and still firmly believe that cryptocurrency will become the mainstream in the future, and you are still learning and evolving yourself, then you are close to becoming The envied survivors of the next round of the bull market are really not far away. After all, after you have survived the coldest winter, you are already a "half" survivor.
This article is from Bikan K Station,the original author @陈威威尔, the source must be indicated when reprinting.
This article is from Bikan K Station,the original author @陈威威尔, the source must be indicated when reprinting.
