Prisoner's dilemma and cheese, where will the trading platform arms race go?
白话区块链
2019-03-24 05:24
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The trading platform is "kidnapped" by users, and the leading platform may be forced to accelerate its transformation.

Editor's Note: This article comes fromvernacular blockchain(ID: hellobtc), author: Wu Huoqiu leader, reprinted by Odaily with authorization.

Editor's Note: This article comes from

vernacular blockchainIEO:Initial Exchange Offering。

(ID: hellobtc), author: Wu Huoqiu leader, reprinted by Odaily with authorization.

And it all started with

On the topic of IEO this week, in addition to Celer, the third project launched on Binance Launchpad, which was looted by tens of thousands of people, platforms such as Huobi announced that they will soon launch functions similar to Binance Launchpad.

As the Prime rules of the Huobi platform and information about the first project spread wildly in various WeChat groups, HT also rose accordingly.

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Huobi’s Prime and IEO

First, let’s take a look at the design of Huobi Prime.

1. From a compliance point of view, you can’t call me IEO
The platform goes to sea in exchange for a higher degree of freedom. This may be because Binance Launchpad can successfully appear in the form of IEO, but after all, Huobi is rooted in China, and some red lines cannot be touched.
Since the way of fundraising is not feasible in terms of policy, let's change another way and open the transaction directly. However, this kind of transaction is different from Huobi’s previous currency listing transactions, mainly reflected in the following points:

1. Initially, there are only HT trading pairs, and the supply is limited;

2. There are three stages with different prices, and the price of the latter round is higher than that of the previous round;

3. Initially, the platform will sell at a unified price.

2. Superb design to test market response

Why does Huobi Prime have to be set in the way of "the next limit price is higher than the previous one", and what are the benefits of this setting? This is a very clever design:

First, it can create a hot scene for the project;

The second is to test the waters of the market, which is convenient for testing the popularity of the secondary market;

3. Everything is for the platform currency

There is only one requirement for Huobi Prime’s first project snap-up: only HT trading pairs. Starting from the second project, there is a requirement for HT holdings, with an average holding of more than 500 HT in 30 days, which is equivalent to a disguised lock-up.

Binance’s Launchpad is restricted to many countries including China, and in this case, more than 40,000 people participated. Huobi’s Prime has no geographical restrictions. Considering that some people hold multiple accounts, it should be considered a reasonable estimate for 100,000 accounts to participate in the Prime snap-up. Based on this calculation, each account that locks 500 HT will have 50 million HT locked, which accounts for more than 20% of the total circulation of 233 million HT. The demand for HT has increased, but the supply has decreased in disguise, which will help drive up the price of HT.

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The spring of platform currency

Looking back now, Binance, which fired the first shot of IEO, has also become the biggest beneficiary of IEO. The most intuitive manifestation is that BNB has risen from about $5 before Launchpad to about $15 at present, an increase of nearly 300%.

Binance’s IEO initiative is to empower the platform and inject more value into BNB. analyse as below:CZ1. In addition to the first BTT event on Launchpad, which is a double fundraiser of BTC and BNB, the next two FET and Celer events are BNB-only sessions. It can be predicted that all subsequent Launchpad projects will be BNB-only sessions. Under the effect of users making money, it will attract more users to participate, further consolidate the position of Binance, and inject more value into BNB.

2. According to statistical analysis, the BTT/BNB trading pair has already accounted for 0.42% of the total trading volume of Binance, which is the third BNB trading pair after USDT and BTC. Although FET/BNB only accounts for 0.07%, But it is also the eighth largest BNB trading pair. It can be seen that the vitality and value injected into BNB by Launchpad are very considerable.

He said on Twitter that Binance may try a different model next time, depending on the position of BNB, and it is still in the works. Huobi’s Prime includes this participation rule in CZ’s vision. If this rule is added, it will further boost the price of BNB.

In addition to Binance and Huobi, other second-tier trading platforms that have launched IEO have also racked their brains and tried to "empower" their own platform coins from all aspects.

Some trading platforms directly launched Fetch options trading before Binance launched Fetch, and only allowed users who hold a certain amount of the platform currency to subscribe, which caused the platform currency to soar. Afterwards, various trading platforms launched businesses similar to Binance Launchpad one after another, joining the IEO war, and related platform tokens rose sharply in a short period of time.

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The Prisoner's Dilemma of the Trading Platform

Not only have the platform coins that joined the IEO battlefield increased, but many trading platforms that have not planned for IEO for the time being, or at least have not flown out of the IEO plan, their platform coins have also seen a huge increase. It seems that users' expectations for the listing of IEO on the trading platform have "kidnapped" the trading platform.

Is this situation healthy?

Under the surface of the IEO war between trading platforms, it is actually an "arms race" among trading platforms, and if it continues like this, it may eventually evolve into a game like "Prisoner's Dilemma".

At present, the money-making effect of IEO has become a sharp tool for the platform to attract users. All platforms have seen this clearly, and it is still a bear market, and it is still a game between existing funds and existing users. Binance, the top trading platform, started, and Huobi quickly followed. For the remaining platforms, if they want to keep users and traffic, they can only choose to "follow the operation". If you don’t go online with IEO, you will give up traffic and users to other platforms, and your own platform currency will not rise because of this.

But if this is the case, it may not be a good thing. In 2017, because of a large number of 1C0 projects, the attractive "wealth creation effect" detonated a round of bull market. After there were no more incremental funds and users, the huge bubble blown by 1C0 burst, and the bear market throughout 2018 And so it came. Compared with 2018, high-quality blockchain projects have not experienced explosive growth, or there is no expectation of explosive growth. If this round of IEO can create a bull market, its ending will be no different from the bursting of the ICO bubble.

As an optimistic rationalist of the blockchain, many participants hope that the bull market of the blockchain will come earlier, but they do not want it to come like this.

Where will the current IEO battle situation go? It is not yet known whether it is a sharp tool to raise funds for discovering and promoting high-quality projects, or it is a chicken feather after the stock game of the trading platform, or a replay of the IC0 tragedy.

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IEO moved whose cheese

No matter which direction the IEO battle situation eventually evolves, one thing is certain: the way blockchain projects raise funds and the sale of Token will change.

In 2017, many projects raised funds through Ethereum. This method is changing, and the popular IEO will quickly replace the financing function of the public chain platform represented by Ethereum.
Although the original vision of Ethereum is to be a "world computer", so far, the biggest use of Ethereum is still "token". With the decline in demand for ICOs, the price of Ethereum plummeted all the way, which is also a good proof of this point.

If you combine this picture with the currency price of Ethereum in the past two years, it is not difficult to see that the two basically show a positive correlation.

1. IEO solves the two problems of selling Token and listing on the trading platform in one step, which is different from ICO. According to statistics, less than 20% of the 1C0 projects with a fund-raising ceiling of 50 million to 100 million US dollars are listed on the trading platform. The project parties have raised money, but they can’t even get on the trading platform. Investors’ assets flow If the problem is not resolved, subsequent investors will be more cautious about projects that are sold in this way, and will be more inclined to choose IEO projects.platform currencyIf the project is sold through IEO, this problem does not exist. The current IEO basically uses the platform currency of the trading platform as the main method of raising funds, replacing the fund-raising function of ETH.

2. IEO will accelerate the public chain of the trading platform. Binance has begun to test its own decentralized trading platform DEX. Huobi and OK have also publicly stated before that they will transform into a public chain.

platform currency

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