It's like riding a roller coaster. Investors commented on the recent currency price trend of Ethereum.
After several months of decline, Ethereum achieved growth beyond the average level of the currency market in just a few days; then, it turned around and fell.
Behind the currency price, the Ethereum community is brewing a long-awaited plan-"Constantinople" upgrade. After that, Ethereum will gradually shift from PoW to PoS consensus.
Every hard fork technology upgrade of Ethereum will cause certain fluctuations in the price of ETH currency. Observing the ETH market price trend after five hard forks in the history of Ethereum, we can draw certain rules.
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1. Before the hard fork, the price is usually rising;
2. During the hard fork, as well as before and shortly after, the price peaked;
3. After the hard fork, the price of ETH began to fall and adjusted in different positions.
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1. Frontier (2015/7/30)
Reason: Experimental release of the first version of Ethereum
Purpose: Build a truly effective network
Upgrade part: 1. Only the command line interface 2. Developers can carry out mining, trading and DAPP development and testing
2. Homestead (2016/3/14 12:00 successfully forked)
Reason: Ethereum network system upgrade
Purpose: First stable version of the network
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Market price trend chart from Frontier to Homestead
After the release of Frontier in July 2015, Ethereum did not gain immediate feedback from the market at first, but after the release of Frontier, it was not until the eve of the release of Homestead that Ethereum's technology began to be widely recognized. Before the Homestead hard fork, the price of Ethereum began to rise gradually. After the completion of the Homestead technology upgrade, the price dropped slightly, which is a normal phenomenon of market fluctuations.
3. The DAO Hard Fork (2016/7/20 11:37 fork completed)
Reason: Hacker attacks The DAO contract vulnerability to transfer Ethereum
Purpose: Recover stolen funds
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The DAO event market price trend chart
After the Homestead fork, there was a downward trend in the price of the currency for a period of time. This is a phenomenon of price correction, which is a normal phenomenon of market transactions.
From the Homestead fork to The DAO event, the success of Ethereum has brought new technologies and business ideas to the industry. In addition, during the same period, several projects have begun to raise funds and issue tokens on Ethereum, which had a positive impact on the entire market at that time, so the price rises and falls of ETH and BTC began to converge.
However, The DAO incident that occurred in June 2016 caused market instability, which reflects that Ethereum has a certain impact on the market. When the founder of Ethereum disclosed the news of the implementation of the hard fork on July 16, the price began to rise significantly, until the completion of the fork, that is, on July 20, the price began to return to the normal period.
4. EIP150 gas cost Hard Fork (2016/10/18 23:00-24:00 fork)
Cause: The network is subject to frequent denial of service attacks
Purpose: To mitigate spam attacks
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EIP150 gas cost hard fork market price trend chart
This picture is a detailed price trend chart before and after the fork of EP150. After the block height of the fork was announced, the price gradually showed an upward trend until it reached the peak on the day when the fork was completed, and then a price correction was made.
5. Spurious Dragon Hard Fork (2016/11/22 23:00-24:00 fork)
Reason: network swelling and congestion
Purpose: to speed up online transactions
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Spurious Dragon hard fork market price trend chart
When Ethereum announced the time of the Spurious Dragon fork on November 18, it did not have an impact on the market at that time, but it began to have a further impact on the market two days before the hard fork. After the mainnet upgrade was completed, there was a period of price correction for a short period of time.
6. Byzantium Hard Fork Byzantium Hard Fork (2017/10/16 20:00-21:00 fork)
Reason: Ethereum network system upgrade
Purpose: to solve privacy issues
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Byzantine hard fork market price trend chart
The Byzantium hard fork time was October 16th, a few days before the announcement of the hard fork time point, the market was originally in an unstable stage. All previous trends are consistent, and the price gradually rises until the fork is completed, and a normal price correction stage occurs after the fork is completed.
7. Constantinople Hard Fork Constantinople Hard Fork (expected 2019/1/14-2019/1/18)
Reason: Ethereum network system upgrade
Purpose: To make the Ethernet network lighter, faster and more secure
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Recent ETH price trend
8. Serenity Tranquility (TBD)
Reason: Ethereum network system upgrade
Purpose: to become a truly mainstream blockchain
Upgrade part: This version will use the proof-of-stake mechanism (PoS), which will use the Casper consensus algorithm
Finally, convert POW to POS: solve the problems of computing power concentration caused by POW.
The overall situation of the rise and fall before and after the fork:
In the week before the fork time, Homestead, Dao Hard Fork and Byzantium Hard Fork had higher gains. Since these three fork upgrades are technical upgrades that have a greater impact on Ethereum itself, they have a greater impact on market fluctuations.
It can be seen that the trend before and after each fork is consistent with the above conclusions. Pay special attention to the first fork, the second fork, and the fifth fork. Before the first and second fork, there is a It is obvious that there is a sharp drop after each fork (although the third and fourth rises are not so obvious, but the diving after the fork is consistent), so the price on the day of each fork becomes a high point A certain practice has been formed.
Reference source:
Reference source:"Research on Market Volatility Caused by Historical Forks of Ethereum" Report
