Foreword:
Foreword:
The essence of investment is cognitive realization, and reason is often the slave of passion. As an animal, it is difficult for human beings to completely get rid of the influence of expectations and emotions, and human beings and human behavior, as matter and material movement, cannot be separated from the laws of nature. In order to perceive and judge correctly, we need to understand human behavior from a scientific perspective. The following is a summary of the National Taiwan University speech "Understanding Human Behaviors From the Perspective of Science" by former Taipei Mayor Ke Wenzhe. It can bring a trace of well-founded calm to everyone in the bear market.
1. Bias: People actually use themselves as coordinates to see the world
There is a saying, To see is to believe, people believe it after seeing it. However, we often only see what we believe in. Worse, we often only see what we wish were true. This is where bias comes in. In order to solve this Bias and solve the problem of human understanding of the world, we need to understand human behavior in a scientific way, with the purpose of reducing human errors.
For example, in the picture, what the jeweler can see is jewelry worth 960 million yuan, not the woman's body
2. We often cannot make a decision because we know too little (thinking without learning is lazy), but the information is limited, so we need to use logical reasoning (learning without thinking is useless)
Human beings are animals with selective disorders. If there is not enough information, it is impossible to make a judgment. The easiest way is to find more information! However, the data are often limited, and it is necessary to use logic to conduct logical reasoning through various phenomena and draw conclusions. For example, when a doctor sees a doctor, he uses phenomena to rule out various possibilities and deduce the cause.
3. The importance of logical deduction
Powerful people don't go through everything from the beginning to the end when encountering things, but prescribe the right medicine. Logical operations can quickly filter many problems and improve correctness and efficiency. The core two kinds of thinking are deduction and induction.
"To give a simple example: a thing (Q) event occurs, guess it may be (A), (B), (C) three symptoms, but if it is (A), there will be (D) side effects, if it is In the case of (B), there will be (E) reaction, but when neither (D) nor (E) is seen today, it can be logically judged to be (C) symptom.”
For example, in the X-ray picture below, the doctor needs to make a diagnosis based on the first picture. There are two possibilities for the appearance of white in the lungs, pneumonia and lung collapse (atelectasis). If it is pneumonia → white blood cells increase or body temperature rises (fever). On the contrary, if the white blood cells do not increase and there is no fever, it is not pneumonia, it is atelectasis, it may be A blockage caused by phlegm and mucus.
Another important formula is Bayes' theorem, a theorem about the conditional probability of random events A and B, where P(A|B) is the probability of A happening given that B happened. It is difficult for us to directly guess the result of a random event, but after understanding B (context and background knowledge), the accuracy of the prediction can be greatly increased. This B can be history, medical history, resume, and past performance.
historical significance
4. Probability: As the number of repetitions increases, the probability decreases rapidly
If there are 50 people in a class, the seats are arranged horizontally, and they can be grouped freely every time. A boy and a girl are in the same group three times, is there any relationship between them? The chances are very low! (1/25)^3. Treat small probability events with caution. It is often foolish to feel that you are the exception.
An event occurs repeatedly, with the probability decreasing rapidly with the number of repetitions
5. There are two possibilities for the low probability: one is that the probability itself is very low, and the other is that the mechanism (mechanism) applicable to the premise assumption is wrong.
Normal Distribution: Also known as Gaussian distribution, most physical phenomena and statistical probabilities are close to this phenomenon. One standard deviation s accounts for 68%, and three standard deviations accounts for 99.72%.
For example: If you ask a girl out, and she says she's busy recently, that's OK. The second appointment was made again, and she said that the case happened to be rushed recently, and there was no way to come out. The third time, of course it will be the same again. That's interesting, is the probability low? She just happens to be busy? As shown in the line block in the figure below, is this the occurrence rate? To put it bluntly, it is not applicable to this mechanism at all (the normal distribution of red), in fact, the mechanism is: she doesn't like you at all, and won't give you a chance.
The assumption that girls like you (Mechanism applies) is wrong
There are two possibilities for the low probability: one is that the probability is very low, and the other is that the applicable mechanism is incorrect. However, because human beings have expectations and emotions, they often do not recognize the latter and cannot make rational judgments. We always convince ourselves that I am a special case, and the person we are waiting for is really really busy just three times, so we cannot keep the appointment.
Because of expectations, we humans often still make choices with very low probability.
6. In fact, our society is not the same, but a combination of several different societies
Social isolation is very similar to biological isolation. Wealth separates everyone, rich people associate with rich people, poor people associate with poor people, famous families meet famous families, ordinary people meet ordinary people. There are so many people in the world, but our own circle of friends has a background similar to our own. How to jump out of one's own "society" and move up to a higher level is the question to think about!
Rich and poor, north and south, urban and rural areas, blue and green positive camps are separated and have a strong correlation
7. There is the most appropriate distance between two particles
There is a safe distance between people. If this distance is exceeded, there must be a relationship (special bonding). When good friends meet, they give the middle finger or slap their buttocks when they greet each other. What happens when you point the middle finger to someone you don't know well?
The matchmaker is a catalyst that reduces the activation energy (activation energy is also called threshold energy, which is used to indicate the minimum energy required for a chemical reaction to occur), and reduces the difficulty of chemical reactions between two people.
To a certain extent, the meaning of revolution is also to overcome the activation energy.
8. The reason for the existence of the metastable state (MetaStable): Vested interests strive to raise the threshold (threshold), otherwise they will move towards a balanced stable state
Why do unreasonable metastable states exist in the world? Because people get benefits, they will work hard to raise the threshold and maintain a position that is not easily shaken. From the point of view of energy, when stimulated, it will naturally move towards a balanced and steady state, but when the threshold is raised, it is difficult to be shaken. For example, we often see those in power promulgate some unreasonable regulations, just to stabilize the conditions for their own position/monopoly. If the lovers have been quarreling and have not broken up, then it is likely that there is no third party external force to intervene.
9. The Law of Entropy Increase: The essence of death is that we can only destroy ourselves when we cannot destroy the environment
"Minimum energy, maximum chaos" is the principle of the operation of the universe, and entropy is used to calculate the degree of chaos of the system. The second law of thermodynamics is expressed as: It is impossible to transfer heat from a low-temperature object to a high-temperature object without other effects, or the micro-increment of entropy in the irreversible thermodynamic process is always greater than zero, also known as " The law of increasing entropy".
In a natural process, the total degree of chaos (i.e. "entropy") of an isolated system will not decrease, that is, ΔS≥0, ΔS(total) = ΔS(system) + ΔS(surrounding). To ensure ΔS ≥ 0, the entropy of the system plus surrounding remains constant or increases.
"My existence" is organized, and no organized structure is stable. In order to maintain my existence, ΔS(system) is less than 0, and to ensure that ΔS(total) is greater than 0, so people must be aware of the surrounding environment cause more damage.
The purpose of our existence is to destroy the surrounding environment and increase ΔS (surrounding). When we can no longer destroy the environment, we have to destroy ourselves. This is the essence of human death.
10. Failure is the norm, success is the exception, success is the mother of failure
In the history of human beings, there are more extinct biological species on the earth than surviving species. Failure is the norm, and success is the exception. We must have an awareness that most attempts will basically fail, but we should not be afraid not to do it because of this.
Can a business survive forever? In fact, the long-standing enterprises just hang the same signboard, but the content has long been different. In fact, Apple originally sold computers and PCs, but it didn't improve after that. Now it relies on iPhones to eat all over the world.
11. Success is the mother of failure, and it is difficult for human beings to change from the past success paradigm
1) Using the same approach or product, the winner must be the one already in the existing market - the largest company
2) There is only one way for the disadvantaged, which is innovation
We often listen to what other people say, asking for what we should do, so that we can be the same as so and so. But in fact, if you follow the same pace, you can only walk behind others in the end. The so-called big Evergrande will inevitably be unable to surpass its already successful opponents. Only by innovation can it be possible to modify the new game mechanism and reproduce the revolution.
In the industry, DOS will not be defeated by DOS plus, and DOS will only be completely annihilated by Windows. Nokia once won for a while, but was completely defeated by the iPhone. In the political arena, Trump defeated Hillary Clinton, and the Ke Wenzhe phenomenon is a similar example. Sometimes, disadvantages are also advantages, because those who have not succeeded have nothing to lose, so why should they worry about failure?
12. The spark of genius flashes everywhere, but only when the environment permits can it lead to a big fire
A single spark, if you want to start a prairie fire, it depends on the environmental conditions at that time and your understanding of society. Many things will happen, but whether it will be popular or not, in fact, the final decision is the entire social environment at that time. Only by absorbing new information at any time can you maintain excellent acuity, and when the time comes, you will be the one to ride the gust of wind.
13. The Buddha said: Do not say
In the so-called mathematical system, Compatible (compatible) is easy to prove, and Complete (complete) is difficult to prove, so we probably know what is compatible for many problems, but it is really difficult to say whether it is really complete. The Buddha said that it is impossible to say, there are no absolute answers to many questions, just think about how it will help your practice in this life?
unknowable and unspeakable
14. What is death? What does it mean to be alive?
Many people actually died at the age of 30, and only entered the coffin at the age of 80.
There are only two endings at the end of life - intubation and non-intubation. Prosperity and wealth can't be taken away in the end, they all have the same ending. So looking back, the most important thing in life is the process! If you can accept death, you won't care so much about many disturbing emotions.
15. Inevitability or chance?
1) If Newtonian mechanics is right, the whole history is fixed henceforth
2) If quantum mechanics is correct, after two particles collide, their distribution in the air is a probability distribution, and the whole history is accidental from then on.
Which one is right? According to Heisenberg's uncertainty principle, there is no way to know the position and velocity of each particle at the same time, and uncertainty does not mean that it does not exist. Is history inevitable or accidental? In the future and history of the entire human race, is there human consciousness in it? We still don't have an answer.
16. Destiny: Do your best with good intentions
Because human beings have feelings and sensibility, we will do things that are not scientific and rational, but because of such actions, we are respected. Man, it's amazing.
postscript:
Doctors cannot change the fact of human death, and economic policies cannot change the laws of economic cycles. People are bound to die, and enterprises cannot last forever. Birth, old age, sickness and death are irreversible norms. In the venture capital world, once successful, ten thousand bones will die, and the end result of early enterprises will always be close to death. After the bubble, only a few can survive. The makers of economic policy, like doctors, are responsible not only to directly eliminate the fact of "death" through various methods such as medicine and surgery, but to reduce the suffering of all beings in the "process" of cyclical pain through physical and psychological means. "Diagnosis and treatment effect" is not the result of one moment and one place, but long-term and systematic, with subtle measurement standards.
Video link:
Video link:
https://v.youku.com/v_show/id_XMTcxMTA0OTU0MA==.html
