Odaily News According to CME's "Fed Watch": The probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in July is 77.3% (previously 79.3%), and the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is 22.7% (previously 20.7%). The probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in September is 8.1% (previously 8.2%), the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point rate cut is 71.6% (previously 73.3%), and the probability of a cumulative 50 basis point rate cut is 20.4% (previously 18.5%). (Jinshi)

Odaily News U.S. consumer spending unexpectedly fell in May as the boost from advance purchases ahead of tariffs faded and inflation growth remained mild. Data on Friday showed that consumer spending, which accounts for more than two-thirds of economic activity, fell 0.1% last month, while the market expected a 0.1% increase. Consumer spending was almost stagnant last quarter after the rush of advance shopping disappeared. Spending on services also fell, resulting in a quarterly increase of only 0.5%, the lowest since the second quarter of 2020. The data indicates a weak path for consumption growth in the second quarter. Weak consumption and mild inflation are still not enough to prompt the Federal Reserve to resume interest rate cuts in July. Economists pointed out that the current mild inflation is due to the fact that companies are still selling inventory hoarded before tariffs take effect, and inflation is expected to rise from the June CPI data. (Jinshi)

Odaily News Eric Balchunas, senior ETF analyst at Bloomberg, wrote on the X platform that when it comes to Bitcoin volatility, chart data shows that the 60-day volatility of BlackRock's Bitcoin exchange-traded fund IBIT was about 5.7 times that of SPX a year ago, but now it is only slightly above 1 (which means that the volatility is roughly the same as the US stock market).

Odaily News Traders expect the Fed to start cutting interest rates in September, increasing bets that the Fed will cut rates three times by 2025. (Jinshi)

Odaily News PCE data weakened, and US Treasury yields fell slightly. The US dollar index DXY fell 10 points in the short term and is now at 97.15. The increase in US core PCE in May was higher than expected. (Jinshi)

Odaily News The U.S. core PCE price index recorded an annual rate of 2.7% in May, higher than the expected 2.6%, the highest since February 2025. The U.S. core PCE price index recorded a monthly rate of 0.2% in May, and the market expected it to remain unchanged at 0.1%. (Jinshi)